Efficient simulation of ruin probabilities when claims are mixtures of heavy and light tails

We consider the classical Cram\'er-Lundberg risk model with claim sizes that are mixtures of phase-type and subexponential variables. Exploiting a specific geometric compound representation, we propose control variate techniques to efficiently simulate the ruin probability in this situation. The resulting estimators perform well for both small and large initial capital. We quantify the variance reduction as well as the efficiency gain of our method over another fast standard technique based on the classical Pollaczek-Khinchine formula. We provide a numerical example to illustrate the performance, and show that for more time-consuming conditional Monte Carlo techniques, the new series representation also does not compare unfavorably to the one based on the Pollaczek- Khinchine formula.Comment: 18 pages, 8 figure

Postglacial migration supplements climate in determining plant species ranges in Europe

The influence of dispersal limitation on species ranges remains controversial. Considering the dramatic impacts of the last glaciation in Europe, species might not have tracked climate changes through time and, as a consequence, their present-day ranges might be in disequilibrium with current climate. For 1016 European plant species, we assessed the relative importance of current climate and limited postglacial migration in determining species ranges using regression modelling and explanatory variables representing climate, and a novel species-specific hind-casting-based measure of accessibility to postglacial colonization. Climate was important for all species, while postglacial colonization also constrained the ranges of more than 50 per cent of the species. On average, climate explained five times more variation in species ranges than accessibility, but accessibility was the strongest determinant for one-sixth of the species. Accessibility was particularly important for species with limited long-distance dispersal ability, with southern glacial ranges, seed plants compared with ferns, and small-range species in southern Europe. In addition, accessibility explained one-third of the variation in species' disequilibrium with climate as measured by the realized/potential range size ratio computed with niche modelling. In conclusion, we show that although climate is the dominant broad-scale determinant of European plant species ranges, constrained dispersal plays an important supplementary role

On Sharp Large Deviations for the bridge of a general Diffusion

We provide sharp Large Deviation estimates for the probability of exit from a domain for the bridge of a $d$-dimensional general diffusion process $X$, as the conditioning time tends to $0$. This kind of results is motivated by applications to numerical simulation. In particular we investigate the influence of the drift $b$ of $X$. It turns out that the sharp asymptotics for the exit time probability are independent of the drift, provided $b$ enjoyes a simple condition that is always satisfied in dimension $1$. On the other hand, we show that the drift can be influential if this assumption is not satisfied.

Disconnecting Symmetry Breaking from Seeded Growth for the Reproducible Synthesis of High Quality Gold Nanorods

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/suppl/10.1021/acsnano.8b09658/suppl_file/nn8b09658_si_002.pdfOne of the major difficulties hindering the widespread application of colloidal anisotropic plasmonic nanoparticles is the limited robustness and reproducibility of multistep synthetic methods. We demonstrate herein that the reproducibility and reliability of colloidal gold nanorod (AuNR) synthesis can be greatly improved by disconnecting the symmetry-breaking event from the seeded growth process. We have used a modified silver-assisted seeded growth method in the presence of the surfactant hexadecyltrimethylammonium bromide and n-decanol as a co-surfactant to prepare small AuNRs in high yield, which were then used as seeds for the growth of high quality AuNR colloids. Whereas the use of n-decanol provides a more-rigid micellar system, the growth on anisotropic seeds avoids sources of irreproducibility during the symmetry breaking step, yielding uniform AuNR colloids with narrow plasmon bands, ranging from 600 to 1270 nm, and allowing the fine-tuning of the final dimensions. This method provides a robust route for the preparation of high quality AuNR colloids with tunable morphology, size, and optical response in a reproducible and scalable manner

Edge stabilization in reduced-dimensional perovskites

Reduced-dimensional perovskites are attractive light-emitting materials due to their efficient luminescence, color purity, tunable bandgap, and structural diversity. A major limitation in perovskite light-emitting diodes is their limited operational stability. Here we demonstrate that rapid photodegradation arises from edge-initiated photooxidation, wherein oxidative attack is powered by photogenerated and electrically-injected carriers that diffuse to the nanoplatelet edges and produce superoxide. We report an edge-stabilization strategy wherein phosphine oxides passivate unsaturated lead sites during perovskite crystallization. With this approach, we synthesize reduced-dimensional perovskites that exhibit 97 ± 3% photoluminescence quantum yields and stabilities that exceed 300 h upon continuous illumination in an air ambient. We achieve green-emitting devices with a peak external quantum efficiency (EQE) of 14% at 1000 cd m-2; their maximum luminance is 4.5 × 104 cd m-2 (corresponding to an EQE of 5%); and, at 4000 cd m-2, they achieve an operational half-lifetime of 3.5 h.This publication is based in part on work supported by an award (KUS-11-009-21) from the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), by the Ontario Research Fund Research Excellence Program, by the Ontario Research Fund (ORF), by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada, and by the US Department of Navy, Office of Naval Research (Grant Award No. N00014-17-1-2524). H.Y. acknowledges the Research Foundation-Flanders (FWO Vlaanderen) for a postdoctoral fellowship. E.B. gratefully acknowledges financial support by the Research Foundation-Flanders (FWO Vlaanderen). S.B. acknowledges financial support from European Research Council (ERC Starting Grant #815128-REALNANO). M.B.J.R. and J.H. acknowledge the Research Foundation-Flanders (FWO, Grants G.0962.13, G.0B39.15, AKUL/11/14 and G0H6316N), KU Leuven Research Fund (C14/15/053) and the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP/2007-2013)/ERC Grant Agreement No. [307523], ERC-Stg LIGHT to M.B.J.R. DFT calculations were performed on the IBM BlueGene Q supercomputer with support from the Southern Ontario Smart Computing Innovation Platform (SOSCIP). M.I.S. acknowledges the Banting Postdoctoral Fellowship program from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). H.T. acknowledges the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) for a Rubicon grant (680-50-1511)

Olig3 regulates early cerebellar development

The mature cerebellum controls motor skill precision and participates in other sophisticated brain functions that include learning, cognition, and speech. Different types of GABAergic and glutamatergic cerebellar neurons originate in temporal order from two progenitor niches, the ventricular zone and rhombic lip, which express the transcription factors Ptf1a and Atoh1, respectively. However, the molecular machinery required to specify the distinct neuronal types emanating from these progenitor zones is still unclear. Here, we uncover the transcription factor Olig3 as a major determinant in generating the earliest neuronal derivatives emanating from both progenitor zones in mice. In the rhombic lip, Olig3 regulates progenitor cell proliferation. In the ventricular zone, Olig3 safeguards Purkinje cell specification by curtailing the expression of Pax2, a transcription factor that suppresses the Purkinje cell differentiation program. Our work thus defines Olig3 as a key factor in early cerebellar development

A decision support system-based procedure for evaluation and monitoring of protected areas sustainability for the Mediterranean region

WOS: 000297078900015Despite common acknowledgement of the value of protected areas as instruments in ensuring sustainability, and their promotion for the achievement of policies on halting the loss of biodiversity, there is no common approach today for monitoring and evaluating them. This paper presents a novel integrated nature conservation management procedure developed to monitor and evaluate the sustainability of Mediterranean protected areas. This procedure was successfully implemented and formally evaluated by protected area managers in six Mediterranean countries, results of which are presented here together with an overview of the web-based Decision Support System (DSS) developed to facilitate its wide adoption. The DSS and procedure has been designed and evaluated by managers as a useful tool, which facilitates and provides needed procedural guidance for protected area monitoring whilst minimizing input requirements to do so. The procedure and DSS were developed following a review of existing protected area assessment tools and a detailed primary investigation of the needs and capacity of its intended users. Essentially, the procedure and DSS guides provide the facilities for protected area managers, in following a participatory approach to develop a context-specific sustainability monitoring strategy, for their protected area. Consequently, the procedure is, by design, participatory, context specific, holistic and relevant to protected area management and institutional procedures. The procedure was piloted and formally evaluated in Greece, Italy, Turkey, Egypt, Malta and Cyprus. Feedback collected from the pilot evaluations is also summarised herein.INTERREG III B [A.1.222 INNOVA]This research was funded under INTERREG III B Programme 'Archimed' A.1.222 INNOVA Project. The authors would like to acknowledge the contribution and input of the partners, protected area authorities, stakeholders and local communities. Special thanks to the University of Bari, the Polytechnic of Bari, Apulian Ministry of Environment, University of Lecce, Maltese Ministry of Rural Affairs and Environment, University of Malta, Agricultural Research Institute of Cyprus, Prefecture of Chania, Egyptian Desert Research Center, Palestinian Ministry of Agriculture, Palestinian National Authority, and Al Quads University