Model for Determining Geographical Distribution of Heat Saving Potentials in Danish Building Stock

Since the global oil crisis in the 1970s, Denmark has followed a path towards energy independency by continuously improving its energy efficiency and energy conservation. Energy efficiency was mainly tackled by introducing a high number of combined heat and power plants in the system, while energy conservation was predominantly approached by implementing heat saving measures. Today, with the goal of 100% renewable energy within the power and heat sector by the year 2035, reductions in energy demand for space heating and the preparation of domestic hot water remain at the top of the agenda in Denmark. A highly detailed model for determining heat demand, possible heat savings and associated costs in the Danish building stock is presented. Both scheduled and energy-saving renovations until year 2030 have been analyzed. The highly detailed GIS-based heat atlas for Denmark is used as a container for storing data about physical properties for 2.5 million buildings in Denmark. Consequently, the results of the analysis can be represented on a single building level. Under the assumption that buildings with the most profitable heat savings are renovated first, the consequences of heat savings for the economy and energy system have been quantified and geographically referenced. The possibilities for further improvements of the model and the application to other geographical regions have been discussed