500 research outputs found

    Tuberculosis burden in an urban population: a cross sectional tuberculosis survey from Guinea Bissau

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Little is known about the prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in low income countries. We conducted a cross sectional survey for pulmonary TB and TB symptoms in Bissau, Guinea-Bissau, in an urban cohort with known HIV prevalence. TB surveillance in the area is routinely based on passive case finding.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two cohorts were selected based on a previous HIV survey, but only 52.5% of those enrolled in the adult cohort had participated in the HIV survey. One cohort included all adults living in 384 randomly selected houses; in this cohort 8% (135/1687) were HIV infected. The other included individuals 50 years or older from all other houses in the study area; of these 11% (62/571) were HIV infected. Symptom screening was done through household visits using a standardised questionnaire. TB suspects were investigated with sputum smear microscopy and X-ray.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the adult cohort, we found 4 cases among 2989 individuals screened, giving a total TB prevalence of 134/100,000 (95% CI 36-342/100,000). In the >50 years cohort, we found 4 cases among 571 individuals screened, giving a total prevalence of 701/100,000 (191-1784/100.000). Two of the eight detected TB cases were unknown by the TB program. Of the total TB cases five were HIV uninfected while three had unknown HIV status. The prevalence of TB symptoms was 2.1% (63/2989) and 10.3% (59/571) in the two cohorts respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In conclusion we found a moderately high prevalence of pulmonary TB and TB symptoms in the general population, higher among elderly individuals. By active case finding unknown cases were detected. Better awareness of TB and its symptoms needs to be promoted in low income settings.</p

    Estimating the Magnitude and Direction of Altered Arbovirus Transmission Due to Viral Phenotype

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    Vectorial capacity is a measure of the transmission potential of a vector borne pathogen within a susceptible population. Vector competence, a component of the vectorial capacity equation, is the ability of an arthropod to transmit an infectious agent following exposure to that agent. Comparisons of arbovirus strain-specific vector competence estimates have been used to support observed or hypothesized differences in transmission capability. Typically, such comparisons are made at a single time point during the extrinsic incubation period, the time in days it takes for the virus to replicate and disseminate to the salivary glands. However, vectorial capacity includes crucial parameters needed to effectively evaluate transmission capability, though often this is based on the discrete vector competence values. Utilization of the rate of change of vector competence over a range of days gives a more accurate measurement of the transmission potential. Accordingly, we investigated the rate of change in vector competence of dengue virus in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and the resulting vectorial capacity curves. The areas under the curves represent the effective vector competence and the cumulative transmission potentials of arboviruses within a population of mosquitoes. We used the calculated area under the curve for each virus strain and the corresponding variance estimates to test for differences in cumulative transmission potentials between strains of dengue virus based on our dynamic model. To further characterize differences between dengue strains, we devised a displacement index interpreted as the capability of a newly introduced strain to displace the established, dominant circulating strain. The displacement index can be used to better understand the transmission dynamics in systems where multiple strains/serotypes circulate or even multiple arbovirus species. The use of a rate of a rate of change based model of vectorial capacity and the informative calculations of the displacement index will lead to better measurements of the differences in transmission potential of arboviruses

    Prioritising between direct observation of therapy and case-finding interventions for tuberculosis: use of population impact measures

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    BACKGROUND: Population impact measures (PIMs) have been developed as tools to help policy-makers with locally relevant decisions over health risks and benefits. This involves estimating and prioritising potential benefits of interventions in specific populations. Using tuberculosis (TB) in India as an example, we examined the population impact of two interventions: direct observation of therapy and increasing case-finding. METHODS: PIMs were calculated using published literature and national data for India, and applied to a notional population of 100 000 people. Data included the incidence or prevalence of smear-positive TB and the relative risk reduction from increasing case finding and the use of direct observation of therapy (applied to the baseline risks over the next year), and the incremental proportion of the population eligible for the proposed interventions. RESULTS: In a population of 100 000 people in India, the directly observed component of the Directly Observed Treatment, Short-course (DOTS) programme may prevent 0.188 deaths from TB in the next year compared with 1.79 deaths by increasing TB case finding. The costs of direct observation are (in international dollars) I5960andofcasefindingareI5960 and of case finding are I4839 or I31702andI31702 and I2703 per life saved respectively. CONCLUSION: Increasing case-finding for TB will save nearly 10 times more lives than will the use of the directly observed component of DOTS in India, at a smaller cost per life saved. The demonstration of the population impact, using simple and explicit numbers, may be of value to policy-makers as they prioritise interventions for their populations

    The Impact of Realistic Age Structure in Simple Models of Tuberculosis Transmission

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    Background : Mathematical models of tuberculosis (TB) transmission have been used to characterize disease dynamics, investigate the potential effects of public health interventions, and prioritize control measures. While previous work has addressed the mathematical description of TB natural history, the impact of demography on the behaviour of TB models has not been assessed. Methods : A simple model of TB transmission, with alternative assumptions about survivorship, is used to explore the effect of age structure on the prevalence of infection, disease, basic reproductive ratio and the projected impact of control interventions. We focus our analytic arguments on the differences between constant and exponentially distributed lifespans and use an individual-based model to investigate the range of behaviour arising from realistic distributions of survivorship. Results : The choice of age structure and natural (non-disease related) mortality strongly affects steady-state dynamics, parameter estimation and predictions about the effectiveness of control interventions. Since most individuals infected with TB develop an asymptomatic latent infection and never progress to active disease, we find that assuming a constant mortality rate results in a larger reproductive ratio and an overestimation of the effort required for disease control in comparison to using more realistic age-specific mortality rates. Conclusions : Demographic modelling assumptions should be considered in the interpretation of models of chronic infectious diseases such as TB. For simple models, we find that assuming constant lifetimes, rather than exponential lifetimes, produces dynamics more representative of models with realistic age structure

    Has the DOTS Strategy Improved Case Finding or Treatment Success? An Empirical Assessment

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    Background: Nearly fifteen years after the start of WHO's DOTS strategy, tuberculosis remains a major global health problem. Given the lack of empirical evidence that DOTS reduces tuberculosis burden, considerable debate has arisen about its place in the future of global tuberculosis control efforts. An independent evaluation of DOTS, one of the most widely-implemented and longest-running interventions in global health, is a prerequisite for meaningful improvements to tuberculosis control efforts, including WHO's new Stop TB Strategy. We investigate the impact of the expansion of the DOTS strategy on tuberculosis case finding and treatment success, using only empirical data. Methods and Findings: We study the effect of DOTS using time-series cross-sectional methods. We first estimate the impact of DOTS expansion on case detection, using reported case notification data and controlling for other determinants of change in notifications, including HIV prevalence, GDP, and country-specific effects. We then estimate the effect of DOTS expansion on treatment success. DOTS programme variables had no statistically significant impact on case detection in a wide range of models and specifications. DOTS population coverage had a significant effect on overall treatment success rates, such that countries with full DOTS coverage benefit from at least an 18% increase in treatment success (95% CI: 5–31%). Conclusions: The DOTS technical package improved overall treatment success. By contrast, DOTS expansion had no effect on case detection. This finding is less optimistic than previous analyses. Better epidemiological and programme data would facilitate future monitoring and evaluation efforts

    Retear of anterior cruciate ligament grafts in female basketball players: a case series

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Incidence of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries in young female basketball players is higher than that in male basketball players. Graft retears are more frequent with the increasing number of ACL reconstructions. The present study aimed to examine the incidence of retears in competitive female basketball players.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Sixty-four female basketball players (aged 12 to 29 years) who underwent primary anatomic double-bundle ACL reconstruction using hamstring grafts participated in the study. We investigated incidence, mechanism, and patient characteristics of ACL graft retears. Mann-Whitney <it>U </it>test was used for statistical analysis, and the level of significance was determined at <it>P </it>< 0.05.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Six patients suffered from ACL graft retear (9.4%). Mean duration between primary ACL reconstruction and incidence of retears was 11.7 months. However, there were no other postoperative graft ruptures after 24 months. Primary injury and retear mechanisms varied by patient. At six months after the primary ACL reconstruction surgery, mean quadriceps and hamstring strengths were 81% and 87%, respectively, indicating favorable recovery of muscle strength. However, preoperative quadriceps and hamstring strength in the retear group were 65% and 71%, respectively. In particular, preoperative quadriceps strength in the retear group demonstrated a lower value than that in the uninjured group (<it>P </it>< 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We observed a high incidence of ACL graft retears in competitive female basketball players, as previously reported. Considering the timing of graft retear occurrences, an early return to playing basketball should be avoided following ACL reconstruction. Closer attention should be paid to player preoperative condition, as well as muscle strength and postoperative status.</p

    Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis associated with pulmonary vein thrombosis: a case report

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    BACKGROUND: Pulmonary vein thrombosis represents a potentially fatal disease. This syndrome may clinically mimic pulmonary embolism but has a different investigation strategy and prognosis. Pulmonary vein thrombosis is difficult to diagnose clinically and usually requires a combination of conventionally used diagnostic modalities. CASE PRESENTATION: The authors report a case of a 78-year-old previously healthy female presenting with collapse and shortness of breath. Serum biochemistry revealed acute kidney injury, positive D-dimmer's and increased C reactive protein. Chest radiography demonstrated volume loss in the right lung. The patient was started on antibiotics and also therapeutic doses of low molecular weight heparin. The working diagnosis included community acquired pneumonia & pulmonary embolism. A computed tomography pulmonary angiogram was performed to confirm the clinical suspicions of pulmonary embolism. This demonstrated a thrombus in the pulmonary vein, with associated fibrosis and volume loss of the right lower lobe. A subsequent thrombophilia screen revealed a positive lupus anticoagulant antibody and rheumatoid factor and also decreased anti thrombin III and protein C levels. The urine protein/creatinine ratio was found to be 553 mg/mmol. CONCLUSION: The diagnosis of this patient was therefore of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis associated with pulmonary vein thrombosis. Whether or not the pulmonary vein thrombosis was a primary cause of the fibrosis or a consequence of it was unclear. There are few data on the management of pulmonary vein thrombosis, but anticoagulation, antibiotics, and, in cases of large pulmonary vein thrombosis, thrombectomy or pulmonary resection have been used

    Man Bites Mosquito: Understanding the Contribution of Human Movement to Vector-Borne Disease Dynamics

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    In metropolitan areas people travel frequently and extensively but often in highly structured commuting patterns. We investigate the role of this type of human movement in the epidemiology of vector-borne pathogens such as dengue. Analysis is based on a metapopulation model where mobile humans connect static mosquito subpopulations. We find that, due to frequency dependent biting, infection incidence in the human and mosquito populations is almost independent of the duration of contact. If the mosquito population is not uniformly distributed between patches the transmission potential of the pathogen at the metapopulation level, as summarized by the basic reproductive number, is determined by the size of the largest subpopulation and reduced by stronger connectivity. Global extinction of the pathogen is less likely when increased human movement enhances the rescue effect but, in contrast to classical theory, it is not minimized at an intermediate level of connectivity. We conclude that hubs and reservoirs of infection can be places people visit frequently but briefly and the relative importance of human and mosquito populations in maintaining the pathogen depends on the distribution of the mosquito population and the variability in human travel patterns. These results offer an insight in to the paradoxical observation of resurgent urban vector-borne disease despite increased investment in vector control and suggest that successful public health intervention may require a dual approach. Prospective studies can be used to identify areas with large mosquito populations that are also visited by a large fraction of the human population. Retrospective studies can be used to map recent movements of infected people, pinpointing the mosquito subpopulation from which they acquired the infection and others to which they may have transmitted it

    Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

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    Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina)
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