Evolution of the Dependence of Residual Lifetimes

We investigate the dependence properties of a vector of residual lifetimes by means of the copula associated with the conditional distribution function. In particular, the evolution of positive dependence properties (like quadrant dependence and total positivity) are analyzed and expressions for the evolution of measures of association are given

New genera and problematic species in African Lithosiinae (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae, Lymantriidae)

This paper deals with some problematic species in the subfamily Lithosiinae. Two new monospecific genera are proposed: Parafrasura gen. nov. and Palaeugoa gen. nov. The former presents the following autapomorphies: tegumen strong and large; uncus long and slightly claviform; typical scaphium-gnathos complex. The latter presents as autapomorphies the disposition of the bands of the wings pattern, and the male genitalia shape. Asura naumanni Kühne, 2005 is considered incertae sedis within Lithosiinae and Asura phaeosticta Kiriakoff, 1958 is transferred to Euproctis Hübner, [1819] (Lymantriidae) (comb. nov.)

E-democracy as the frame of networked public discourse : information, consensus and complexity

The quest for democracy and the political reflection about its future are to be understood nowadays in the horizon of the networked information revolution. Hence, it seems difficult to speak of democracy without speaking of e-democracy, the key issue of which is the re-configuration of models of information production and concentration of attention, which are to be investigated both from a political and an epistemological standpoint. In this perspective, our paper aims at analyzing the multi-agent dimension of networked public discourse, by envisaging two competing models of structuring this discourse (those of dialogue and of claim) and by suggesting to endorse the epistemic idea of complementarity as a guidance principle for elaborating a form of partnership between traditional and electronic media

Conjugate Bayes for probit regression via unified skew-normal distributions

Regression models for dichotomous data are ubiquitous in statistics. Besides being useful for inference on binary responses, these methods serve also as building blocks in more complex formulations, such as density regression, nonparametric classification and graphical models. Within the Bayesian framework, inference proceeds by updating the priors for the coefficients, typically set to be Gaussians, with the likelihood induced by probit or logit regressions for the responses. In this updating, the apparent absence of a tractable posterior has motivated a variety of computational methods, including Markov Chain Monte Carlo routines and algorithms which approximate the posterior. Despite being routinely implemented, Markov Chain Monte Carlo strategies face mixing or time-inefficiency issues in large p and small n studies, whereas approximate routines fail to capture the skewness typically observed in the posterior. This article proves that the posterior distribution for the probit coefficients has a unified skew-normal kernel, under Gaussian priors. Such a novel result allows efficient Bayesian inference for a wide class of applications, especially in large p and small-to-moderate n studies where state-of-the-art computational methods face notable issues. These advances are outlined in a genetic study, and further motivate the development of a wider class of conjugate priors for probit models along with methods to obtain independent and identically distributed samples from the unified skew-normal posterior

Conditionally conjugate mean-field variational Bayes for logistic models

Variational Bayes (VB) is a common strategy for approximate Bayesian inference, but simple methods are only available for specific classes of models including, in particular, representations having conditionally conjugate constructions within an exponential family. Models with logit components are an apparently notable exception to this class, due to the absence of conjugacy between the logistic likelihood and the Gaussian priors for the coefficients in the linear predictor. To facilitate approximate inference within this widely used class of models, Jaakkola and Jordan (2000) proposed a simple variational approach which relies on a family of tangent quadratic lower bounds of logistic log-likelihoods, thus restoring conjugacy between these approximate bounds and the Gaussian priors. This strategy is still implemented successfully, but less attempts have been made to formally understand the reasons underlying its excellent performance. To cover this key gap, we provide a formal connection between the above bound and a recent P\'olya-gamma data augmentation for logistic regression. Such a result places the computational methods associated with the aforementioned bounds within the framework of variational inference for conditionally conjugate exponential family models, thereby allowing recent advances for this class to be inherited also by the methods relying on Jaakkola and Jordan (2000)

Non-linear maximum rank distance codes in the cyclic model for the field reduction of finite geometries

In this paper we construct infinite families of non-linear maximum rank distance codes by using the setting of bilinear forms of a finite vector space. We also give a geometric description of such codes by using the cyclic model for the field reduction of finite geometries and we show that these families contain the non-linear maximum rank distance codes recently provided by Cossidente, Marino and Pavese.Comment: submitted; 22 page

Logic is Metaphysics

Analyzing the position of two philosophers whose views are recognizably divergent, W. O. Quine and M. Dummett, we intend to support a striking point of agreement between them: the idea that our logical principles constitute our principles about what there is, and therefore, that logic is metaphysics

On Quine's Ontology: quantification, extensionality and naturalism (or from commitment to indifference)

Much of the ontology made in the analytic tradition of philosophy nowadays is founded on some of Quine’s proposals. His naturalism and the binding between existence and quantification are respectively two of his very influential metaphilosophical and methodological theses. Nevertheless, many of his specific claims are quite controversial and contemporaneously have few followers. Some of them are: (a) his rejection of higher-order logic; (b) his resistance in accepting the intensionality of ontological commitments; (c) his rejection of first-order modal logic; and (d) his rejection of the distinction between analytic and synthetic statements. I intend to argue that these controversial negative claims are just interconnected consequences of those much more accepted and apparently less harmful metaphilosophical and methodological theses, and that the glue linking all these consequences to its causes is the notion of extensionality

Bayesian dynamic financial networks with time-varying predictors

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model including time-varying predictors in dynamic network inference. The model is applied to infer the dependence structure among financial markets during the global financial crisis, estimating effects of verbal and material cooperation efforts. We interestingly learn contagion effects, with increasing influence of verbal relations during the financial crisis and opposite results during the United States housing bubble