Late 19th-Century Navigational Uncertainties and Their Influence on Sea Surface Temperature Estimates

Accurate estimates of historical changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and their uncertainties are important for documenting and understanding historical changes in climate. A source of uncertainty that has not previously been quantified in historical SST estimates stems from position errors. A Bayesian inference framework is proposed for quantifying errors in reported positions and their implications on SST estimates. The analysis framework is applied to data from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS3.0) in 1885, a time when astronomical and chronometer estimation of position was common, but predating the use of radio signals. Focus is upon a subset of 943 ship tracks from ICOADS3.0 that report their position every two hours to a precision of 0.01{\deg} longitude and latitude. These data are interpreted as positions determined by dead reckoning that are periodically updated by celestial correction techniques. The posterior medians of uncertainties in celestial correction are 33.1 km (0.30{\deg} on the equator) in longitude and 24.4 km (0.22{\deg}) in latitude, respectively. The posterior medians of two-hourly dead reckoning uncertainties are 19.2% for ship speed and 13.2{\deg} for ship heading, leading to random position uncertainties with median 0.18{\deg} (20 km on the equator) in longitude and 0.15{\deg} (17 km) in latitude. Reported ship tracks also contain systematic position uncertainties relating to precursor dead-reckoning positions not being updated after obtaining celestial position estimates, indicating that more accurate positions can be provided for SST observations. Finally, we translate position errors into SST uncertainties by sampling an ensemble of SSTs from the Multi-scale Ultra-high resolution Sea Surface Temperature (MURSST) data set

Correcting datasets leads to more homogeneous early-twentieth-century sea surface warming

Existing estimates of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) indicate that, during the early twentieth century, the North Atlantic and northeast Pacific oceans warmed by twice the global average, whereas the northwest Pacific Ocean cooled by an amount equal to the global average1,2,3,4. Such a heterogeneous pattern suggests first-order contributions from regional variations in forcing or in ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes5,6. These older SST estimates are, however, derived from measurements of water temperatures in ship-board buckets, and must be corrected for substantial biases7,8,9. Here we show that correcting for offsets among groups of bucket measurements leads to SST variations that correlate better with nearby land temperatures and are more homogeneous in their pattern of warming. Offsets are identified by systematically comparing nearby SST observations among different groups10. Correcting for offsets in German measurements decreases warming rates in the North Atlantic, whereas correcting for Japanese measurement offsets leads to increased and more uniform warming in the North Pacific. Japanese measurement offsets in the 1930s primarily result from records having been truncated to whole degrees Celsius when the records were digitized in the 1960s. These findings underscore the fact that historical SST records reflect both physical and social dimensions in data collection, and suggest that further opportunities exist for improving the accuracy of historical SST records9,11

A Dynamically Consistent ENsemble of Temperature at the Earth surface since 1850 from the DCENT dataset

Accurate historical records of Earth’s surface temperatures are central to climate research and policy development. Widely-used estimates based on instrumental measurements from land and sea are, however, not fully consistent at either global or regional scales. To address these challenges, we develop the Dynamically Consistent ENsemble of Temperature (DCENT), a 200-member ensemble of monthly surface temperature anomalies relative to the 1982–2014 climatology. Each DCENT member starts from 1850 and has a 5° × 5° resolution. DCENT leverages several updated or recently-developed approaches of data homogenization and bias adjustments: an optimized pairwise homogenization algorithm for identifying breakpoints in land surface air temperature records, a physics-informed inter-comparison method to adjust systematic offsets in sea-surface temperatures recorded by ships, and a coupled energy balance model to homogenize continental and marine records. Each approach was published individually, and this paper describes a combined approach and its application in developing a gridded analysis. A notable difference of DCENT relative to existing temperature estimates is a cooler baseline for 1850–1900 that implies greater historical warming

Evidence in cortical folding patterns for prenatal predispositions to hallucinations in schizophrenia.

All perception is a construction of the brain from sensory input. Our first perceptions begin during gestation, making fetal brain development fundamental to how we experience a diverse world. Hallucinations are percepts without origin in physical reality that occur in health and disease. Despite longstanding research on the brain structures supporting hallucinations and on perinatal contributions to the pathophysiology of schizophrenia, what links these two distinct lines of research remains unclear. Sulcal patterns derived from structural magnetic resonance (MR) images can provide a proxy in adulthood for early brain development. We studied two independent datasets of patients with schizophrenia who underwent clinical assessment and 3T MR imaging from the United Kingdom and Shanghai, China (n = 181 combined) and 63 healthy controls from Shanghai. Participants were stratified into those with (n = 79 UK; n = 22 Shanghai) and without (n = 43 UK; n = 37 Shanghai) hallucinations from the PANSS P3 scores for hallucinatory behaviour. We quantified the length, depth, and asymmetry indices of the paracingulate and superior temporal sulci (PCS, STS), which have previously been associated with hallucinations in schizophrenia, and constructed cortical folding covariance matrices organized by large-scale functional networks. In both ethnic groups, we demonstrated a significantly shorter left PCS in patients with hallucinations compared to those without, and to healthy controls. Reduced PCS length and STS depth corresponded to focal deviations in their geometry and to significantly increased covariance within and between areas of the salience and auditory networks. The discovery of neurodevelopmental alterations contributing to hallucinations establishes testable models for these enigmatic, sometimes highly distressing, perceptions and provides mechanistic insight into the pathological consequences of prenatal origins

Axial Concentration Profiles and NO Flue Gas in a Pilot-Scale Bubbling Fluidized Bed Coal Combustor

Atmospheric bubbling fluidized bed coal combustion of a bituminous coal and anthracite with particle diameters in the range 500-4000 ím was investigated in a pilot-plant facility. The experiments were conducted at steady-state conditions using three excess air levels (10, 25, and 50%) and bed temperatures in the 750-900 °C range. Combustion air was staged, with primary air accounting for 100, 80, and 60% of total combustion air. For both types of coal, high NO concentrations were found inside the bed. In general, the NO concentration decreased monotonically along the freeboard and toward the exit flue; however, during combustion with high air staging and low to moderate excess air, a significant additional NO formation occurred near the secondary air injection point. The results show that the bed temperature increase does not affect the NO flue gas concentration significantly. There is a positive correlation between excess air and the NO flue gas concentration. The air staging operation is very effective in lowering the NO flue gas, but there is a limit for the first stage stoichiometry below which the NO flue gas starts rising again. This effect could be related with the coal rank

Hypericins as Potential Leads for New Therapeutics

70 years have passed since the first isolation of the naphthodianthrones hypericin and pseudohypericin from Hypericum perforatum L. Today, they continue to be one of the most promising group of polyphenols, as they fascinate with their physical, chemical and important biological properties which derive from their unique chemical structure. Hypericins and their derivatives have been extensively studied mainly for their antitumor, antiviral and antidepressant properties. Notably, hypericin is one of the most potent naturally occurring photodynamic agents. It is able to generate the superoxide anion and a high quantum yield of singlet oxygen that are considered to be primarily responsible for its biological effects. The prooxidant photodynamic properties of hypericin have been exploited for the photodynamic therapy of cancer (PDT), as hypericin, in combination with light, very effectively induces apoptosis and/or necrosis of cancer cells. The mechanism by which these activities are expressed continues to be a main topic of discussion, but according to scientific data, different modes of action (generation of ROS & singlet oxygen species, antiangiogenesis, immune responces) and multiple molecular pathways (intrinsic/extrinsic apoptotic pathway, ERK inhibition) possibly interrelating are implicated. The aim of this review is to analyse the most recent advances (from 2005 and thereof) in the chemistry and biological activities (in vitro and in vivo) of the pure naphthodianthrones, hypericin and pseudohypericin from H. perforatum. Extracts from H. perforatum were not considered, nor pharmakokinetic or clinical data. Computerised literature searches were performed using the Medline (PubMed), ChemSciFinder and Scirus Library databases. No language restrictions were imposed

Combining statistical, physical, and historical evidence to improve historical sea surface temperature records

Reconstructing past sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) from historical measurements containing more than 100 million ship-based observations taken by over 500,000 ships from more than 150 countries using a variety of methodologies creates a wide range of historical, scientific, and statistical challenges. The reconstruction of historical SSTs for studying climate change is particularly challenging because SST measurements are uncertain and contain systematic biases of order 0.1°C to 1°C—these systematic biases are in the range of the historical global warming signal of approximately 1°C. The biases are complicated and have generally been addressed using simplified corrections. In this review, I introduce a history of SST observations, review a statistical method developed for quantifying SST biases, and illustrate scientific insights obtained from adjusted SSTs. This article also documents the scientific journey of my Ph.D. work. As a result, I report personal stories on both successes, difficulties, and setbacks along the way. The statistical method for correcting SSTs (i.e., a linear-mixed-effect intercomparison framework) depends on identifying systematic offsets between intercomparable groups of SST observations. Combining estimated offsets with physical and historical evidence has allowed for correcting discrepancies associated with SSTs, including the North Atlantic warming twice as fast as the North Pacific in the early 20th century and anomalously warm SSTs during World War II. Corrections also permit better hindcasting of Atlantic hurricanes. I conclude with some discussion on how the SST records might be further improved. Given the importance of SSTs for understanding historical changes in climate, I hope that this review can help others appreciate challenges that are present and spark some interest and ideas for further improvement

Significant anthropogenic-induced changes of climate classes since 1950

Anthropogenic forcings have contributed to global and regional warming in the last few decades and likely affected terrestrial precipitation. Here we examine changes in major Köppen climate classes from gridded observed data and their uncertainties due to internal climate variability using control simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). About 5.7% of the global total land area has shifted toward warmer and drier climate types from 1950–2010 and significant changes include expansion of arid and high-latitude continental climate zones, shrinkage in polar and midlatitude continental climates, poleward shifts in temperate, continental and polar climates and increasing average elevation of tropical and polar climates. Using CMIP5 multi-model averaged historical simulations forced by observed anthropogenic and natural, or natural only, forcing components, we find that these changes of climate types since 1950 cannot be explained as natural variations but are driven by anthropogenic factors

Systematic differences in bucket sea surface temperature measurements amongst nations identified using a linear-mixed-effect method

The International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Dataset (ICOADS) is a cornerstone for estimating changes in sea surface temperatures (SST) over the instrumental era. Interest in determining SST changes to within 0.1°C makes detecting systematic offsets within ICOADS important. Previous studies have corrected for offsets among engine room intake, buoy, and wooden and canvas bucket measurements, as well as noted discrepancies among various other groupings of data. In this study, a systematic examination of differences in collocated bucket SST measurements from ICOADS3.0 is undertaken using a linear-mixed-effect model according to nations and more-resolved groupings. Six nations and a grouping for which nation metadata are missing, referred to as “deck 156,” together contribute 91% of all bucket measurements and have systematic offsets among one another of as much as 0.22°C. Measurements from the Netherlands and deck 156 are colder than the global average by −0.10° and −0.13°C, respectively, both at p < 0.01, whereas Russian measurements are offset warm by 0.10°C at p < 0.1. Furthermore, of the 31 nations whose measurements are present in more than one grouping of data (i.e., deck), 14 contain decks that show significant offsets at p < 0.1, including all major collecting nations. Results are found to be robust to assumptions regarding the independence and distribution of errors as well as to influences from the diurnal cycle and spatially heterogeneous noise variance. Correction for systematic offsets among these groupings should improve the accuracy of estimated SSTs and their trends

Attributing observed SST trends and sub-continental land warming to Anthropogenic dorcing during 1979 to 2005

Attribution studies conclude that it is extremely likely that most observed global- and continental-scale surface air temperature (SAT) warming since 1950 was caused by anthropogenic forcing, but some difficulties and uncertainties remain in attribution of warming in subcontinental regions and at time scales less than 50 years. This study uses global observations and CMIP5 simulations with various forcings, covering 1979–2005, and control runs to develop confidence intervals, to attribute regional trends of SAT and sea surface temperature (SST) to natural and anthropogenic causes.Observations show warming, significantly different from natural variations at the 95% confidence level, over one-third of all grid boxes, and averaged over 15 of 21 subcontinental regions and 6 of 10 ocean basins. Coupled simulations forced with all forcing factors, or greenhouse gases only, reproduce observed SST and SAT patterns. Uncoupled AMIP-like atmosphere-only (prescribed SST and atmospheric radiative forcing) simulations reproduce observed SAT patterns. All of these simulations produce consistent net downward longwave radiation patterns. Simulations with natural-only forcing simulate weak warming. Anthropogenic forcing effects are clearly detectable at the 5% significance level at global, hemispheric, and tropical scales and in nine ocean basins and 15 of 21 subcontinental land regions. Attribution results indicate that ocean warming during 1979–2005 for the globe and individual basins is well represented in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble mean historical simulations. While land warming may occur as an indirect response to oceanic warming, increasing greenhouse gas concentrations tend to be the ultimate source of land warming in most subcontinental regions during 1979–2005