Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales

This is the final version of the article. Available from Springer Nature via the DOI in this record.Summer rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa exhibits one of the largest signals of climatic variability and with a population reliant on agricultural productivity, the Sahel is particularly vulnerable to major droughts such as occurred in the 1970s and 1980s. Rainfall levels have subsequently recovered, but future projections remain uncertain. Here we show that Sahel rainfall is skilfully predicted on inter-annual and multi-year (that is, >5 years) timescales and use these predictions to better understand the driving mechanisms. Moisture budget analysis indicates that on multi-year timescales, a warmer north Atlantic and Mediterranean enhance Sahel rainfall through increased meridional convergence of low-level, externally sourced moisture. In contrast, year-to-year rainfall levels are largely determined by the recycling rate of local moisture, regulated by planetary circulation patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Our findings aid improved understanding and forecasting of Sahel drought, paramount for successful adaptation strategies in a changing climate.This work was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101) and the EU FP7 SPECS project. The contribution of D.P.R. has received funding from the NERC/DFID Future Climate for Africa programme under the AMMA-2050 project, grant number NE/M019977/1

Spectropolarimetric multi line analysis of stellar magnetic fields

In this paper we study the feasibility of inferring the magnetic field from polarized multi-line spectra using two methods: The pseudo line approach and The PCA-ZDI approach. We use multi-line techniques, meaning that all the lines of a stellar spectrum contribute to obtain a polarization signature. The use of multiple lines dramatically increases the signal to noise ratio of these polarizations signatures. Using one technique, the pseudo-line approach, we construct the pseudo-line as the mean profile of all the individual lines. The other technique, the PCA-ZDI approach proposed recently by Semel et al. (2006) for the detection of polarized signals, combines Principle Components Analysis (PCA) and the Zeeman Do ppler Imaging technique (ZDI). This new method has a main advantage: the polarized signature is extracted using cross correlations between the stellar spectra nd functions containing the polarization properties of each line. These functions are the principal components of a database of synthetic spectra. The synthesis of the spectra of the database are obtained using the radiative transfer equations in LTE. The profiles built with the PCA-ZDI technique are denominated Multi-Zeeman-Signatures. The construction of the pseudo line as well as the Multi-Zeeman-Signatures is a powerful tool in the study of stellar and solar magnetic fields. The information of the physical parameters that governs the line formation is contained in the final polarized profiles. In particular, using inversion codes, we have shown that the magnetic field vector can be properly inferred with both approaches despite the magnetic field regime.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Winter selection of habitats within intertidal foraging areas by mink (Mustela vison)

Patterns of habitat selection by American mink Mustela vison within foraging areas located on the shore, were studied in a coastal environment of Scotland from November to March in 1983/84, 1984/85 and 1994/95. The abundance of prey in the intertidal zone was modelled in relation to abiotic environmental characteristics. Four factors were found to be important predictors of prey abundance: the position within the tidal zone, the abundance and size of rockpools, the nature of the substratum and the presence of fresh water streams. The model was used to predict prey abundance in different areas of the shore. We then investigated whether mink were choosing areas with higher prey abundance at different tidal levels and within, as opposed to between, core areas (areas with a relatively high density of fixes, encompassing usually one or more dens). Only when foraging at low or mid-tide and within core areas were mink found to behave selectively. They showed no significant preference for areas rich in prey when foraging at high tide and between core areas. Mink were also found to avoid areas with fresh water streams and to prefer foraging in the mid-tide zone. The findings are discussed in relation to prey abundance and competition with the otter Lutra lutra

Signal and noise in regime systems: a hypothesis on the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Studies conducted by the UK Met Office reported significant skill at predicting the winter NAO index with their seasonal prediction system. At the same time, a very low signal-to-noise ratio was observed, as measured using the `ratio of predictable components' (RPC) metric. We analyse both the skill and signal-to-noise ratio using a new statistical toy-model which assumes NAO predictability is driven by regime dynamics. It is shown that if the system is approximately bimodal in nature, with the model consistently underestimating the level of regime persistence each season, then both the high skill and high RPC value of the Met Office hindcasts can easily be reproduced. Underestimation of regime persistence could be attributable to any number of sources of model error, including imperfect regime structure or errors in the propagation of teleconnections. In particular, a high RPC value for a seasonal mean prediction may be expected even if the models internal level of noise is realistic.Comment: Published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2019

Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere

Published© 2016 Royal Meteorological Society. We investigate seasonal forecasts of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their relationship with the stratosphere. Climatological frequencies of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and strong polar vortex (SPV) events are well represented and the predicted risk of events varies between 25 and 90% from winter to winter, indicating predictability beyond the deterministic range. The risk of SSW and SPV events relates to predicted NAO as expected, with NAO shifts of -6.5 and +4.8hPa in forecast members containing SSW and SPV events. Most striking of all is that forecast skill of the surface winter NAO vanishes from these hindcasts if members containing SSW events are excluded.This work was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101), the UK Public Weather Service research program and the European Union Framework 7 SPECS project. The contribution of AYK is funded by FMI’s tenure track program and the Academy of Finland under grant 286298

The coronal structure of AB Dor determined from contemporaneous Doppler imaging and X-ray spectroscopy

We obtain contemporaneous observations of the surface and corona of AB Dor using ground-based circularly polarised spectra from the Anglo-Australian Telescope and X-ray data from the Chandra satellite. The ground-based data are used to construct surface magnetic field maps, which are extrapolated to produce detailed models of the quiescent corona. The X-ray data serve as a new test for the validity of these coronal models. The high coronal density and complex multi-polar magnetic field indicate a compact X-ray corona, which is concentrated close to the surface, with a height, H~0.3-0.4R*. There is also significant correlation between the surface and coronal active region locations. At this epoch AB Dor appears to possess one very large active longitude region; displaying enhanced activity in the form of large dark spots, strong magnetic fields and chromospheric emission. Finally, the level of rotational modulation and shape of the X-ray lightcurve depend on the distribution of magnetic field in the obscured hemisphere. The models that best reproduce the rotational modulation observed in the contemporaneous Chandra X-ray lightcurve and spectra require the magnetic field in the obscured hemisphere to be of the same polarity as that in the observed hemisphere. The Sun shows different behaviour, with the leading polarity reversed in the opposite hemisphere. The X-ray observations provide a unique constraint on the magnetic structure in the obscured hemisphere.Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, accepted by MNRAS. This version has cropped figures. For a preprint with the original figures please go to http://star-www.st-and.ac.uk/~gajh/papers0

Mechanisms of internal Atlantic multidecadal variability in HadGEM3-GC3.1 at two different resolutions

This study broadly characterises and compares the key processes governing internal AMV in two resolutions of HadGEM3-GC3.1: N216ORCA025, corresponding to ~60km in the atmosphere and 0.25 degrees in the ocean, and N96ORCA1 (~135km / 1 degree). Both models simulate AMV with a timescale of 60-80 years, which is related to low frequency ocean and atmosphere circulation changes. In both models, ocean heat transport convergence dominates polar and subpolar AMV, whereas surface heat fluxes associated with cloud changes drive subtropical AMV. However, details of the ocean circulation changes differ between the models. In N216 subpolar subsurface density anomalies propagate into the subtropics along the western boundary, consistent with the more coherent circulation changes and widespread development of SST anomalies. In contrast, N96 subsurface density anomalies persist in the subpolar latitudes for longer, so circulation anomalies and the development of SST anomalies are more centred there. The drivers of subsurface density anomalies also differ between models. In N216, the NAO is the dominant driver, while upper-ocean salinity-controlled density anomalies that originate from the Arctic appear to be the dominant driver in N96. These results further highlight that internal AMV mechanisms are model dependent and motivate further work to better understand and constrain the difference

Magnetic fields and differential rotation on the pre-main sequence I: The early-G star HD 141943 - brightness and magnetic topologies

Spectroscopic and spectropolarimetric observations of the pre-main sequence early-G star HD 141943 were obtained at four observing epochs (in 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2010). The observations were undertaken at the 3.9-m Anglo-Australian Telescope using the UCLES echelle spectrograph and the SEMPOL spectropolarimeter visitor instrument. Brightness and surface magnetic field topologies were reconstructed for the star using the technique of least-squares deconvolution to increase the signal-to-noise of the data. The reconstructed brightness maps show that HD 141943 had a weak polar spot and a significant amount of low latitude features, with little change in the latitude distribution of the spots over the 4 years of observations. The surface magnetic field was reconstructed at three of the epochs from a high order (l <= 30) spherical harmonic expansion of the spectropolarimetric observations. The reconstructed magnetic topologies show that in 2007 and 2010 the surface magnetic field was reasonably balanced between poloidal and toroidal components. However we find tentative evidence of a change in the poloidal/toroidal ratio in 2009 with the poloidal component becoming more dominant. At all epochs the radial magnetic field is predominantly non-axisymmetric while the azimuthal field is predominantly axisymmetric with a ring of positive azimuthal field around the pole similar to that seen on other active stars.Comment: 18 pages, 17 figures, accepted by MNRA

The influence of anthropogenic aerosol on multi-decadal variations of historical global climate

Analysis of single forcing runs from CMIP5 (the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) simulations shows that the mid-twentieth century temperature hiatus, and the coincident decrease in precipitation, is likely to have been influenced strongly by anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Models that include a representation of the indirect effect of aerosol better reproduce inter-decadal variability in historical global-mean near-surface temperatures, particularly the cooling in the 1950s and 1960s, compared to models with representation of the aerosol direct effect only. Models with the indirect effect also show a more pronounced decrease in precipitation during this period, which is in better agreement with observations, and greater inter-decadal variability in the inter-hemispheric temperature difference. This study demonstrates the importance of representing aerosols, and their indirect effects, in general circulation models, and suggests that inter-model diversity in aerosol burden and representation of aerosol–cloud interaction can produce substantial variation in simulations of climate variability on multi decadal timescales