Assessing sampling of the fossil record in a geographically and stratigraphically constrained dataset: the Chalk Group of Hampshire, southern UK

Taphonomic, geological and sampling processes have been cited as biasing richness measurements in the fossil record, and sampling proxies have been widely used to assess this. However, the link between sampling and taxonomic richness is poorly understood, and there has been much debate over the equivalence and relevance of proxies. We approach this question by combining both historical and novel data: a historical fossil occurrence dataset with uniquely high spatial resolution from the Upper Cretaceous Chalk Group of Hampshire, UK, and a newly-compiled 3D geological model which maps subsurface extent. The geological model provides rock volumes, and these are compared with exposure and outcrop area, sampling proxies that have often been conflated in previous studies. The extent to which exposure area (true rock availability) has changed over research time is also tested. We find a trend of low Cenomanian to high Turonian to Campanian raw richness, which correlates with, and is possibly driven by the number of specimens found. After sampling standardisation, an unexpected mid-Turonian peak diversity is recovered, and sampling-standardised genus richness is best predicted by rock volume, suggesting a species-area (or, a “genus-area”) effect. Additionally, total exposure area has changed over time, but relative exposure remains the same

Sporadic sampling, not climatic forcing, drives observed early hominin diversity.

Paleoanthropologists have long been intrigued by the observed patterns of human evolution, including species diversity, and often invoked climatic change as the principal driver of evolutionary change. Here, we investigate whether the early hominin fossil record is of suitable quality to test these climate-forcing hypotheses. Specifically, we compare early hominin diversity to sampling metrics that quantify changes in fossil preservation and sampling intensity between 7 and 1 million years ago. We find that observed diversity patterns are governed by sporadic sampling and do not yield a genuine evolutionary signal. Many more fossil discoveries are required before existing hypotheses linking climate and evolution can be meaningfully tested.The role of climate change in the origin and diversification of early hominins is hotly debated. Most accounts of early hominin evolution link observed fluctuations in species diversity to directional shifts in climate or periods of intense climatic instability. None of these hypotheses, however, have tested whether observed diversity patterns are distorted by variation in the quality of the hominin fossil record. Here, we present a detailed examination of early hominin diversity dynamics, including both taxic and phylogenetically corrected diversity estimates. Unlike past studies, we compare these estimates to sampling metrics for rock availability (hominin-, primate-, and mammal-bearing formations) and collection effort, to assess the geological and anthropogenic controls on the sampling of the early hominin fossil record. Taxic diversity, primate-bearing formations, and collection effort show strong positive correlations, demonstrating that observed patterns of early hominin taxic diversity can be explained by temporal heterogeneity in fossil sampling rather than genuine evolutionary processes. Peak taxic diversity at 1.9 million years ago (Ma) is a sampling artifact, reflecting merely maximal rock availability and collection effort. In contrast, phylogenetic diversity estimates imply peak diversity at 2.4 Ma and show little relation to sampling metrics. We find that apparent relationships between early hominin diversity and indicators of climatic instability are, in fact, driven largely by variation in suitable rock exposure and collection effort. Our results suggest that significant improvements in the quality of the fossil record are required before the role of climate in hominin evolution can be reliably determined

Assessing sampling of the fossil record in a geographically and stratigraphically constrained dataset: the Chalk Group of Hampshire, southern UK

Taphonomic, geological and sampling processes have been cited as biasing richness measurements in the fossil record, and sampling proxies have been widely used to assess this. However, the link between sampling and taxonomic richness is poorly understood, and there has been much debate on the equivalence and relevance of proxies. We approach this question by combining both historical and novel data: a historical fossil occurrence dataset with uniquely high spatial resolution from the Upper Cretaceous Chalk Group of Hampshire, UK, and a newly compiled 3D geological model that maps subsurface extent. The geological model provides rock volumes, and these are compared with exposure and outcrop area, sampling proxies that have often been conflated in previous studies. The extent to which exposure area (true rock availability) has changed over research time is also tested. We find a trend of low Cenomanian to high Turonian to Campanian raw richness, which correlates with, and is possibly driven by, the number of specimens found. After sampling standardization, an unexpected mid-Turonian peak diversity is recovered, and sampling-standardized genus richness is best predicted by rock volume, suggesting a species–area (or ‘genus–area’) effect. Additionally, total exposure area has changed over time, but relative exposure remains the same. Supplementary materials: A locality list, abundance matrix and all correlation and modelling results are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3592208

Assessing sampling of the fossil record in a geographically and stratigraphically constrained dataset: the Chalk Group of Hampshire, southern UK

Taphonomic, geological and sampling processes have been cited as biasing richness measurements in the fossil record, and sampling proxies have been widely used to assess this. However, the link between sampling and taxonomic richness is poorly understood, and there has been much debate on the equivalence and relevance of proxies. We approach this question by combining both historical and novel data: a historical fossil occurrence dataset with uniquely high spatial resolution from the Upper Cretaceous Chalk Group of Hampshire, UK, and a newly compiled 3D geological model that maps subsurface extent. The geological model provides rock volumes, and these are compared with exposure and outcrop area, sampling proxies that have often been conflated in previous studies. The extent to which exposure area (true rock availability) has changed over research time is also tested. We find a trend of low Cenomanian to high Turonian to Campanian raw richness, which correlates with, and is possibly driven by, the number of specimens found. After sampling standardization, an unexpected mid-Turonian peak diversity is recovered, and sampling-standardized genus richness is best predicted by rock volume, suggesting a species–area (or ‘genus–area’) effect. Additionally, total exposure area has changed over time, but relative exposure remains the same. Supplementary materials: A locality list, abundance matrix and all correlation and modelling results are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3592208

An enormous sulfur isotope excursion indicates marine anoxia during the end-Triassic mass extinction

The role of ocean anoxia as a cause of the end-Triassic marine mass extinction is widely debated. Here, we present carbonate-associated sulfate δ³⁴S data from sections spanning the Late Triassic–Early Jurassic transition, which document synchronous large positive excursions on a global scale occurring in ~50 thousand years. Biogeochemical modeling demonstrates that this S isotope perturbation is best explained by a fivefold increase in global pyrite burial, consistent with large-scale development of marine anoxia on the Panthalassa margin and northwest European shelf. This pyrite burial event coincides with the loss of Triassic taxa seen in the studied sections. Modeling results also indicate that the pre-event ocean sulfate concentration was low (<1 millimolar), a common feature of many Phanerozoic deoxygenation events. We propose that sulfate scarcity preconditions oceans for the development of anoxia during rapid warming events by increasing the benthic methane flux and the resulting bottom-water oxygen demand

Triton, a new species-level database of Cenozoic planktonic foraminiferal occurrences

Planktonic foraminifera are a major constituent of ocean floor sediments, and thus have one of the most complete fossil records of any organism. Expeditions to sample these sediments have produced large amounts of spatiotemporal occurrence records throughout the Cenozoic, but no single source exists to house these data. We have therefore created a comprehensive dataset that integrates numerous sources for spatiotemporal records of planktonic foraminifera. This new dataset, Triton, contains >500,000 records and is four times larger than the previous largest database, Neptune. To ensure comparability among data sources, we have cleaned all records using a unified set of taxonomic concepts and have converted age data to the GTS 2020 timescale. Where ages were not absolute (e.g. based on biostratigraphic or magnetostratigraphic zones), we have used generalised additive models to produce continuous estimates. This dataset is an excellent resource for macroecological and macroevolutionary studies, particularly for investigating how species responded to past climatic changes

Geographic range did not confer resilience to extinction in terrestrial vertebrates at the end-Triassic crisis

Rates of extinction vary greatly through geological time, with losses particularly concentrated in mass extinctions. Species duration at other times varies greatly, but the reasons for this are unclear. Geographical range correlates with lineage duration amongst marine invertebrates, but it is less clear how far this generality extends to other groups in other habitats. It is also unclear whether a wide geographical distribution makes groups more likely to survive mass extinctions. Here we test for extinction selectivity amongst terrestrial vertebrates across the end-Triassic event. We demonstrate that terrestrial vertebrate clades with larger geographical ranges were more resilient to extinction than those with smaller ranges throughout the Triassic and Jurassic. However, this relationship weakened with increasing proximity to the end-Triassic mass extinction, breaking down altogether across the event itself. We demonstrate that these findings are not a function of sampling biases; a perennial issue in studies of this kind

Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100

Anthropogenic activity is changing Earth's climate and ecosystems in ways that are potentially dangerous and disruptive to humans. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise, ensuring that these changes will be felt for centuries beyond 2100, the current benchmark for projection. Estimating the effects of past, current, and potential future emissions to only 2100 is therefore short-sighted. Critical problems for food production and climate-forced human migration are projected to arise well before 2100, raising questions regarding the habitability of some regions of the Earth after the turn of the century. To highlight the need for more distant horizon scanning, we model climate change to 2500 under a suite of emission scenarios and quantify associated projections of crop viability and heat stress. Together, our projections show global climate impacts increase significantly after 2100 without rapid mitigation. As a result, we argue that projections of climate and its effects on human well-being and associated governance and policy must be framed beyond 2100

Climate-mediated diversification of turtles in the Cretaceous

The file attached is the published version of the article