Rough paths in idealized financial markets

This paper considers possible price paths of a financial security in an idealized market. Its main result is that the variation index of typical price paths is at most 2, in this sense, typical price paths are not rougher than typical paths of Brownian motion. We do not make any stochastic assumptions and only assume that the price path is positive and right-continuous. The qualification "typical" means that there is a trading strategy (constructed explicitly in the proof) that risks only one monetary unit but brings infinite capital when the variation index of the realized price path exceeds 2. The paper also reviews some known results for continuous price paths and lists several open problems.Comment: 21 pages, this version adds (in Appendix C) a reference to new results in the foundations of game-theoretic probability based on Hardin and Taylor's work on hat puzzle

Drilling their own graves:How the European oil and gas supermajors avoid sustainability tensions through mythmaking

This study explores how paradoxical tensions between economic growth and environmental protection are avoided through organizational mythmaking. By examining the European oil and gas supermajors’ ‘‘CEOspeak’’ about climate change, we show how mythmaking facilitates the disregarding, diverting, and/or displacing of sustainability tensions. In doing so, our findings further illustrate how certain defensive responses are employed: (1) regression, or retreating to the comforts of past familiarities, (2) fantasy, or escaping the harsh reality that fossil fuels and climate change are indeed irreconcilable, and (3) projecting, or shifting blame to external actors for failing to address climate change. By highlighting the discursive effects of enacting these responses, we illustrate how the European oil and gas supermajors self-determine their inability to substantively address the complexities of climate change. We thus argue that defensive responses are not merely a form of mismanagement as the paradox and corporate sustainability literature commonly suggests, but a strategic resource that poses serious ethical concerns given the imminent danger of issues such as climate change

Distributions of charged massive scalars and fermions from evaporating higher-dimensional black holes

A detailed numerical analysis is performed to obtain the Hawking spectrum for charged, massive brane scalars and fermions on the approximate background of a brane charged rotating higher-dimensional black hole constructed in arXiv:0907.5107. We formulate the problem in terms of a "spinor-like" first order system of differential wave equations not only for fermions, but for scalars as well and integrate it numerically. Flux spectra are presented for non-zero mass, charge and rotation, confirming and extending previous results based on analytic approximations. In particular we describe an inverted charge splitting at low energies, which is not present in four or five dimensions and increases with the number of extra dimensions. This provides another signature of the evaporation of higher-dimensional black holes in TeV scale gravity scenarios.Comment: 19 pages, 6 figures, minor typos corrected, 1 page added with a discussion on higher spins, added reference

Tocolytic effect of a selective FP receptor antagonist in rodent models reveals an innovative approach to the treatment of preterm labor

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Management of preterm labor by tocolysis remains an unmet medical need. Prostaglandins play a major role in regulation of uterine activity and in molecular mechanisms of human labor and parturition. There is some circumstantial evidence that prostaglandin F2α by action through the prostaglandin receptor subtype FP is effective in key events during labor uterine contraction, rupture of membranes and cervical dilation. This role of FP is briefly reviewed. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that an orally active and selective FP antagonist may arrest labor and delay parturition in animal models.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We examined the effects of a small molecule selective antagonist of the FP receptor (AS604872) in inhibition of spontaneous uterine contraction in pregnant rat near term. We tested AS604872 for its ability to delay preterm birth in a mouse model in which the anti-progestin agent RU486 triggered parturition.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>By oral or intravenous dosing AS604872 reduced markedly and dose-dependently the spontaneous uterine contractions in late-term pregnant rats at gestational days 19–21. In pregnant mice, AS604872 delayed the preterm birth caused by RU486 administration. The effect was dose-dependent with a significant increase in the mean delivery time of 16 and 33 hours at oral doses of 30 mg/kg and 100 mg/kg, respectively, in the case of labor triggered at gestational day 14. In both models AS604872 appeared more effective than the β-agonist ritodrine.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The tocolytic activity displayed by a selective FP receptor antagonist supports a key role for the FP receptor in the pathophysiology of premature birth and demonstrates the therapeutic potential of an FP antagonist for the treatment of preterm labor cases in which uterine hyperactivity plays a dominant role.</p

Nitrogen uptake and internal recycling in Zostera marina exposed to oyster farming: eelgrass potential as a natural biofilter

Oyster farming in estuaries and coastal lagoons frequently overlaps with the distribution of seagrass meadows, yet there are few studies on how this aquaculture practice affects seagrass physiology. We compared in situ nitrogen uptake and the productivity of Zostera marina shoots growing near off-bottom longlines and at a site not affected by oyster farming in San Quintin Bay, a coastal lagoon in Baja California, Mexico. We used benthic chambers to measure leaf NH4 (+) uptake capacities by pulse labeling with (NH4)-N-15 (+) and plant photosynthesis and respiration. The internal N-15 resorption/recycling was measured in shoots 2 weeks after incubations. The natural isotopic composition of eelgrass tissues and vegetative descriptors were also examined. Plants growing at the oyster farming site showed a higher leaf NH4 (+) uptake rate (33.1 mmol NH4 (+) m(-2) day(-1)) relative to those not exposed to oyster cultures (25.6 mmol NH4 (+) m(-2) day(-1)). We calculated that an eelgrass meadow of 15-16 ha (which represents only about 3-4 % of the subtidal eelgrass meadow cover in the western arm of the lagoon) can potentially incorporate the total amount of NH4 (+) excreted by oysters (similar to 5.2 x 10(6) mmol NH4 (+) day(-1)). This highlights the potential of eelgrass to act as a natural biofilter for the NH4 (+) produced by oyster farming. Shoots exposed to oysters were more efficient in re-utilizing the internal N-15 into the growth of new leaf tissues or to translocate it to belowground tissues. Photosynthetic rates were greater in shoots exposed to oysters, which is consistent with higher NH4 (+) uptake and less negative delta C-13 values. Vegetative production (shoot size, leaf growth) was also higher in these shoots. Aboveground/belowground biomass ratio was lower in eelgrass beds not directly influenced by oyster farms, likely related to the higher investment in belowground biomass to incorporate sedimentary nutrients

Early efficacy of CABG care delivery in a low procedure-volume community hospital: operative and midterm results

BACKGROUND: The Leapfrog Group recommended that coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery should be done at high volume hospitals (>450 per year) without corresponding surgeon-volume criteria. The latter confounds procedure-volume effects substantially, and it is suggested that high surgeon-volume (>125 per year) rather than hospital-volume may be a more appropriate indicator of CABG quality. METHODS: We assessed 3-year isolated CABG morbidity and mortality outcomes at a low-volume hospital (LVH: 504 cases) and compared them to the corresponding Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) national data over the same period (2001–2003). All CABGs were performed by 5 high-volume surgeons (161–285 per year). "Best practice" care at LVH – including effective practice guidelines, protocols, data acquisition capabilities, case review process, dedicated facilities and support personnel – were closely modeled after a high-volume hospital served by the same surgeon-team. RESULTS: Operative mortality was similar for LVH and STS (OM: 2.38% vs. 2.53%), and the corresponding LVH observed-to-expected mortality (O/E = 0.81) indicated good quality relative to the STS risk model (O/E<1). Also, these results were consistent irrespective of risk category: O/E was 0, 0.9 and 1.03 for very-low risk (<1%), low risk (1–3%) and moderate-to-high risk category (>3%), respectively. Postoperative leg wound infections, ventilator hours, renal dysfunction (no dialysis), and atrial fibrillation were higher for LVH, but hospital stay was not. The unadjusted Kaplan-Meier survival for the LVH cohort was 96%, 94%, and 92% at one, two, and three years, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrated that high quality CABG care can be achieved at LVH programs if 1) served by high volume surgeons and 2) patient care procedures similar to those of large programs are implemented. This approach may prove a useful paradigm to ensure high quality CABG care and early efficacy at low volume institutions that wish to comply with the Leapfrog standards

Volume-based referral for cardiovascular procedures in the United States: a cross-sectional regression analysis

BACKGROUND: We sought to estimate the numbers of patients affected and deaths avoided by adopting the Leapfrog Group's recommended hospital procedure volume minimums for coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). In addition to hospital risk-adjusted mortality standards, the Leapfrog Group recommends annual hospital procedure minimums of 450 for CABG and 400 for PCI to reduce procedure-associated mortality. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of a national hospital discharge database to evaluate in-hospital mortality among patients who underwent PCI (n = 2,500,796) or CABG (n = 1,496,937) between 1998 and 2001. We calculated the number of patients treated at low volume hospitals and simulated the number of deaths potentially averted by moving all patients to high volume hospitals under best-case conditions (i.e., assuming the full volume-associated reduction in mortality and the capacity to move all patients to high volume hospitals with no related harms). RESULTS: Multivariate adjusted odds of in-hospital mortality were higher for patients treated in low volume hospitals compared with high volume hospitals for CABG (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.10–1.24) and PCI (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.05–1.20). A policy of hospital volume minimums would have required moving 143,687 patients for CABG and 87,661 patients for PCI from low volume to high volume hospitals annually and prevented an estimated 619 CABG deaths and 109 PCI deaths. Thus, preventing a single death would have required moving 232 CABG patients or 805 PCI patients from low volume to high volume hospitals. CONCLUSION: Recommended hospital CABG and PCI volume minimums would prevent 728 deaths annually in the United States, fewer than previously estimated. It is unclear whether a policy requiring the movement of large numbers of patients to avoid relatively few deaths is feasible or effective

Design, rationale, and baseline characteristics of a cluster randomized controlled trial of pay for performance for hypertension treatment: study protocol

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite compelling evidence of the benefits of treatment and well-accepted guidelines for treatment, hypertension is controlled in less than one-half of United States citizens.</p> <p>Methods/design</p> <p>This randomized controlled trial tests whether explicit financial incentives promote the translation of guideline-recommended care for hypertension into clinical practice and improve blood pressure (BP) control in the primary care setting. Using constrained randomization, we assigned 12 Veterans Affairs hospital outpatient clinics to four study arms: physician-level incentive; group-level incentive; combination of physician and group incentives; and no incentives (control). All participants at the hospital (cluster) were assigned to the same study arm. We enrolled 83 full-time primary care physicians and 42 non-physician personnel. The intervention consisted of an educational session about guideline-recommended care for hypertension, five audit and feedback reports, and five disbursements of incentive payments. Incentive payments rewarded participants for chart-documented use of guideline-recommended antihypertensive medications, BP control, and appropriate responses to uncontrolled BP during a prior four-month performance period over the 20-month intervention. To identify potential unintended consequences of the incentives, the study team interviewed study participants, as well as non-participant primary care personnel and leadership at study sites. Chart reviews included data collection on quality measures not related to hypertension. To evaluate the persistence of the effect of the incentives, the study design includes a washout period.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>We briefly describe the rationale for the interventions being studied, as well as the major design choices. Rigorous research designs such as the one described here are necessary to determine whether performance-based payment arrangements such as financial incentives result in meaningful quality improvements.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p><url>http://www.clinicaltrials.gov</url><a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00302718">NCT00302718</a></p

Physics and Applications of Laser Diode Chaos

An overview of chaos in laser diodes is provided which surveys experimental achievements in the area and explains the theory behind the phenomenon. The fundamental physics underpinning this behaviour and also the opportunities for harnessing laser diode chaos for potential applications are discussed. The availability and ease of operation of laser diodes, in a wide range of configurations, make them a convenient test-bed for exploring basic aspects of nonlinear and chaotic dynamics. It also makes them attractive for practical tasks, such as chaos-based secure communications and random number generation. Avenues for future research and development of chaotic laser diodes are also identified.Comment: Published in Nature Photonic