IUCN's encounter with 007: safeguarding consensus for conservation

A controversy at the 2016 IUCN World Conservation Congress on the topic of closing domestic ivory markets (the 007, or so-called James Bond, motion) has given rise to a debate on IUCN's value proposition. A cross-section of authors who are engaged in IUCN but not employed by the organization, and with diverse perspectives and opinions, here argue for the importance of safeguarding and strengthening the unique technical and convening roles of IUCN, providing examples of what has and has not worked. Recommendations for protecting and enhancing IUCN's contribution to global conservation debates and policy formulation are given

Ecological Thresholds in the Savanna Landscape: Developing a Protocol for Monitoring the Change in Composition and Utilisation of Large Trees

BACKGROUND: Acquiring greater understanding of the factors causing changes in vegetation structure -- particularly with the potential to cause regime shifts -- is important in adaptively managed conservation areas. Large trees (> or =5 m in height) play an important ecosystem function, and are associated with a stable ecological state in the African savanna. There is concern that large tree densities are declining in a number of protected areas, including the Kruger National Park, South Africa. In this paper the results of a field study designed to monitor change in a savanna system are presented and discussed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Developing the first phase of a monitoring protocol to measure the change in tree species composition, density and size distribution, whilst also identifying factors driving change. A central issue is the discrete spatial distribution of large trees in the landscape, making point sampling approaches relatively ineffective. Accordingly, fourteen 10 m wide transects were aligned perpendicular to large rivers (3.0-6.6 km in length) and eight transects were located at fixed-point photographic locations (1.0-1.6 km in length). Using accumulation curves, we established that the majority of tree species were sampled within 3 km. Furthermore, the key ecological drivers (e.g. fire, herbivory, drought and disease) which influence large tree use and impact were also recorded within 3 km. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The technique presented provides an effective method for monitoring changes in large tree abundance, size distribution and use by the main ecological drivers across the savanna landscape. However, the monitoring of rare tree species would require individual marking approaches due to their low densities and specific habitat requirements. Repeat sampling intervals would vary depending on the factor of concern and proposed management mitigation. Once a monitoring protocol has been identified and evaluated, the next stage is to integrate that protocol into a decision-making system, which highlights potential leading indicators of change. Frequent monitoring would be required to establish the rate and direction of change. This approach may be useful in generating monitoring protocols for other dynamic systems

The Effects of Herbivory by a Mega- and Mesoherbivore on Tree Recruitment in Sand Forest, South Africa

Herbivory by megaherbivores on woody vegetation in general is well documented; however studies focusing on the individual browsing effects of both mega- and mesoherbivore species on recruitment are scarce. We determined these effects for elephant Loxodonta africana and nyala Tragelaphus angasii in the critically endangered Sand Forest, which is restricted to east southern Africa, and is conserved mainly in small reserves with high herbivore densities. Replicated experimental treatments (400 m2) in a single forest patch were used to exclude elephant, or both elephant and nyala. In each treatment, all woody individuals were identified to species and number of stems, diameter and height were recorded. Results of changes after two years are presented. Individual tree and stem densities had increased in absence of nyala and elephant. Seedling recruitment (based on height and diameter) was inhibited by nyala, and by elephant and nyala in combination, thereby preventing recruitment into the sapling stage. Neither nyala or elephant significantly reduced sapling densities. Excluding both elephant and nyala in combination enhanced recruitment of woody species, as seedling densities increased, indicating that forest regeneration is impacted by both mega- and mesoherbivores. The Sand Forest tree community approached an inverse J-shaped curve, with the highest abundance in the smaller size classes. However, the larger characteristic tree species in particular, such as Newtonia hildebrandtii, were missing cohorts in the middle size classes. When setting management goals to conserve habitats of key importance, conservation management plans need to consider the total herbivore assemblage present and the resulting browsing effects on vegetation. Especially in Africa, where the broadest suite of megaherbivores still persists, and which is currently dealing with the ‘elephant problem’, the individual effects of different herbivore species on recruitment and dynamics of forests and woodlands are important issues which need conclusive answers

Antidepressants and Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk: A Review of the Literature and Researchers' Financial Associations with Industry

BACKGROUND: Antidepressant (AD) use has been purported to increase the risk of breast and ovarian cancer, although both epidemiological and pre-clinical studies have reported mixed results. Previous studies in a variety of biomedical fields have found that financial ties to drug companies are associated with favorable study conclusions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We searched English-language articles in MEDLINE, PsychINFO, the Science Citations Index and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Clinical Trials (through November 2010). A total of 61 articles that assessed the relationship between breast and ovarian cancer and AD use and articles that examined the effect of ADs on cell growth were included. Multi-modal screening techniques were used to investigate researchers' financial ties with industry. A random effects meta-analysis was used to pool the findings from the epidemiological literature. Thirty-three percent (20/61) of the studies reported a positive association between ADs and cancer. Sixty-seven percent (41/61) of the studies reported no association or antiproliferative effect. The pooled odds ratio for the association between AD use and breast/ovarian cancer in the epidemiologic studies was 1.11 (95% CI, 1.03-1.20). Researchers with industry affiliations were significantly less likely than researchers without those ties to conclude that ADs increase the risk of breast or ovarian cancer. (0/15 [0%] vs 20/46 [43.5%] (Fisher's Exact test P = 0.0012). CONCLUSIONS: Both the pre-clinical and clinical data are mixed in terms of showing an association between AD use and breast and ovarian cancer. The possibility that ADs may exhibit a bi-phasic effect, whereby short-term use and/or low dose antidepressants may increase the risk of breast and ovarian cancer, warrants further investigation. Industry affiliations were significantly associated with negative conclusions regarding cancer risk. The findings have implications in light of the 2009 USPSTF guidelines for breast cancer screening and for the informed consent process

2017 HRS/EHRA/ECAS/APHRS/SOLAECE expert consensus statement on catheter and surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation: executive summary.

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Dynamics of births and juvenile recruitment in Mara-Serengeti ungulates in relation to climatic and land use changes

Natality and recruitment govern animal population dynamics, but their responses to fluctuating resources, competition, predation, shifting habitat conditions, density feedback and diseases are poorly understood. To understand the influences of climatic and land use changes on population dynamics, we monitored monthly changes in births and juvenile recruitment in seven ungulate species for 15 years (1989-2003) in the Masai Mara Reserve of Kenya. Recruitment rates declined for all species but giraffe, likely due to habitat alteration and increasing vulnerability of animals associated with recurrent severe droughts, rising temperatures, unprecedentedly strong and prolonged El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes, expansion of settlements, cultivation and human population growth in pastoral ranches adjoining the reserve. Birth rate showed strong and humped relationships with moving averages of monthly rainfall, whereas recruitment responded strongly to cumulative past rainfall. Increasing livestock incursions into the reserve depressed recruitment rate for quarter-grown topi. Expansion of pastoral settlements depressed birth rate in impala, zebra and giraffe. Frequent ENSO-related droughts caused progressive habitat desiccation and hence nutritional shortfalls for ungulates. The responses to climatic, land use and resource influences did not reflect body size, migratory or resident lifestyle, dietary guild, digestive physiology or degree of synchrony of breeding of the ungulate species

Evaluating the protection of wildlife in parks: the case of African buffalo in Serengeti

Human population growth rates on the borders of protected areas in Africa are nearly double the average rural growth, suggesting that protected areas attract human settlement. Increasing human populations could be a threat to biodiversity through increases in illegal hunting. In the Serengeti ecosystem, Tanzania, there have been marked declines in black rhino (Diceros bicornis), elephant (Loxodonta africana) and African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) inside the protected area during a period when there was a reduction of protection through anti-poaching effort (1976–1996). Subsequently, protection effort has increased and has remained stable. During both periods there were major differences in population decline and recovery in different areas. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the possible causes of the spatial differences. We used a spatially structured population model to analyze the impacts of three factors—(i) hunting, (ii) food shortage and (iii) natural predation. Population changes were best explained by illegal hunting but model fit improved with the addition of predation mortality and the effect of food supply in areas where hunting was least. We used a GIS analysis to determine variation in human settlement rates and related those rates to intrinsic population changes in buffalo. Buffalo populations in close proximity to areas with higher rates of human settlement had low or negative rates of increase and were slowest to recover or failed to recover at all. The increase in human populations along the western boundary of the Serengeti ecosystem has led to negative consequences for wildlife populations, pointing to the need for enforcement of wildlife laws to mitigate these effects