Visualisation of quadratic discriminant analysis and its application in exploration of microbial interactions

Background: When comparing diseased and non-diseased patients in order to discriminate between the aspects associated with the specific disease, it is often observed that the diseased patients have more variability than the non-diseased patients. In such cases Quadratic discriminant analysis is required which is based on the estimation of different covariance structures for the different groups. Having different covariance matrices means the Canonical variate transformation cannot be used to obtain a visual representation of the discrimination and group separation. Results: In this paper an alternative method is proposed: combining the different transformations for the different groups into a single representation of the sample points with classification regions. In order to associate the differences in variables with group discrimination, a biplot is produced which include information on the variables, samples and their relationship

Respiratory microbes present in the nasopharynx of children hospitalised with suspected pulmonary tuberculosis in Cape Town, South Africa

Background: Lower respiratory tract infection in children is increasingly thought to be polymicrobial in origin. Children with symptoms suggestive of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) may have tuberculosis, other respiratory tract infections or co-infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and other pathogens. We aimed to identify the presence of potential respiratory pathogens in nasopharyngeal (NP) samples from children with suspected PTB. Method: NP samples collected from consecutive children presenting with suspected PTB at Red Cross Children’s Hospital (Cape Town, South Africa) were tested by multiplex real-time RT-PCR. Mycobacterial liquid culture and Xpert MTB/RIF was performed on 2 induced sputa obtained from each participant. Children were categorised as definite-TB (culture or qPCR [Xpert MTB/RIF] confirmed), unlikely-TB (improvement of symptoms without TB treatment on follow-up) and unconfirmed-TB (all other children). Results: Amongst 214 children with a median age of 36 months (interquartile range, [IQR] 19–66 months), 34 (16 %) had definite-TB, 86 (40 %) had unconfirmed-TB and 94 (44 %) were classified as unlikely-TB. Moraxella catarrhalis (64 %), Streptococcus pneumoniae (42 %), Haemophilus influenzae spp (29 %) and Staphylococcus aureus (22 %) were the most common bacteria detected in NP samples. Other bacteria detected included Mycoplasma pneumoniae (9 %), Bordetella pertussis (7 %) and Chlamydophila pneumoniae (4 %). The most common viruses detected included metapneumovirus (19 %), rhinovirus (15 %), influenza virus C (9 %), adenovirus (7 %), cytomegalovirus (7 %) and coronavirus O43 (5.6 %). Both bacteria and viruses were detected in 73, 55 and 56 % of the definite, unconfirmed and unlikely-TB groups, respectively. There were no significant differences in the distribution of respiratory microbes between children with and without TB. Using quadratic discriminant analysis, human metapneumovirus, C. pneumoniae, coronavirus 043, influenza virus C virus, rhinovirus and cytomegalovirus best discriminated children with definite-TB from the other groups of children. Conclusions: A broad range of potential respiratory pathogens was detected in children with suspected TB. There was no clear association between TB categorisation and detection of a specific pathogen. Further work is needed to explore potential pathogen interactions and their role in the pathogenesis of PTB

Changes in the Molecular Epidemiology of Pediatric Bacterial Meningitis in Senegal After Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Introduction.

BACKGROUND: Bacterial meningitis is a major cause of mortality among children under 5 years of age. Senegal is part of World Health Organization-coordinated sentinel site surveillance for pediatric bacterial meningitis surveillance. We conducted this analysis to describe the epidemiology and etiology of bacterial meningitis among children less than 5 years in Senegal from 2010 and to 2016. METHODS: Children who met the inclusion criteria for suspected meningitis at the Centre Hospitalier National d'Enfants Albert Royer, Senegal, from 2010 to 2016 were included. Cerebrospinal fluid specimens were collected from suspected cases examined by routine bacteriology and molecular assays. Serotyping, antimicrobial susceptibility testing, and whole-genome sequencing were performed. RESULTS: A total of 1013 children were admitted with suspected meningitis during the surveillance period. Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis, and Haemophilus accounted for 66% (76/115), 25% (29/115), and 9% (10/115) of all confirmed cases, respectively. Most of the suspected cases (63%; 639/1013) and laboratory-confirmed (57%; 66/115) cases occurred during the first year of life. Pneumococcal meningitis case fatality rate was 6-fold higher than that of meningococcal meningitis (28% vs 5%). The predominant pneumococcal lineage causing meningitis was sequence type 618 (n = 7), commonly found among serotype 1 isolates. An ST 2174 lineage that included serotypes 19A and 23F was resistant to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. CONCLUSIONS: There has been a decline in pneumococcal meningitis post-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction in Senegal. However, disease caused by pathogens covered by vaccines in widespread use still persists. There is need for continued effective monitoring of vaccine-preventable meningitis

The impact of long-term azithromycin on antibiotic resistance in HIV-associated chronic lung disease

Selection for resistance to azithromycin (AZM) and other antibiotics such as tetracyclines and lincosamides remains a concern with long-term AZM use for treatment of chronic lung diseases (CLD). We investigated the impact of 48 weeks of AZM on the carriage and antibiotic resistance of common respiratory bacteria among children with HIV-associated CLD. Nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs and sputa were collected at baseline, 48 and 72 weeks from participants with HIV-associated CLD randomised to receive weekly AZM or placebo for 48 weeks and followed post-intervention until 72 weeks. The primary outcomes were prevalence and antibiotic resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP), Staphylococcus aureus (SA), Haemophilus influenzae (HI) and Moraxella catarrhalis (MC) at these timepoints. Mixed-effects logistic regression and Fisher's exact test were used to compare carriage and resistance, respectively. Of 347 (174 AZM, 173 placebo) participants (median age 15 years (IQR 13–18), female 49%), NP carriage was significantly lower in the AZM (n=159) compared to placebo (n=153) arm for SP (18% versus 41%, p<0.001), HI (7% versus 16%, p=0.01) and MC (4% versus 11%, p=0.02); SP resistance to AZM (62% (18 out of 29) versus 13% (8 out of 63), p<0.0001) or tetracycline (60% (18 out of 29) versus 21% (13 out of 63), p<0.0001) was higher in the AZM arm. Carriage of SA resistant to AZM (91% (31 out of 34) versus 3% (1 out of 31), p<0.0001), tetracycline (35% (12 out of 34) versus 13% (4 out of 31), p=0.05) and clindamycin (79% (27 out of 34) versus 3% (1 out of 31), p<0.0001) was also significantly higher in the AZM arm and persisted at 72 weeks. Similar findings were observed for sputa. The persistence of antibiotic resistance and its clinical relevance for future infectious episodes requiring treatment needs further investigation

Impact of Long-Term Azithromycin Therapy on Carriage and Resistance of Respiratory Bacteria Among Children with HIV-Associated Chronic Lung Disease: A Randomised Controlled Trial

Selection for resistance to azithromycin (AZM) and other antibiotics such as tetracyclines and lincosamides remains a concern with long-term AZM use for treatment of chronic lung diseases (CLD). We investigated the impact of 48 weeks of AZM on the carriage and antibiotic resistance of common respiratory bacteria among children with HIV-associated CLD. Nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs and sputa were collected at baseline, 48 and 72 weeks from participants with HIV-associated CLD randomised to receive weekly AZM or placebo for 48 weeks and followed post-intervention until 72 weeks. The primary outcomes were prevalence and antibiotic resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP), Staphylococcus aureus (SA), Haemophilus influenzae (HI) and Moraxella catarrhalis (MC) at these timepoints. Mixed-effects logistic regression and Fisher's exact test were used to compare carriage and resistance, respectively. Of 347 (174 AZM, 173 placebo) participants (median age 15 years (IQR 13–18), female 49%), NP carriage was significantly lower in the AZM (n=159) compared to placebo (n=153) arm for SP (18% versus 41%, p<0.001), HI (7% versus 16%, p=0.01) and MC (4% versus 11%, p=0.02); SP resistance to AZM (62% (18 out of 29) versus 13% (8 out of 63), p<0.0001) or tetracycline (60% (18 out of 29) versus 21% (13 out of 63), p<0.0001) was higher in the AZM arm. Carriage of SA resistant to AZM (91% (31 out of 34) versus 3% (1 out of 31), p<0.0001), tetracycline (35% (12 out of 34) versus 13% (4 out of 31), p=0.05) and clindamycin (79% (27 out of 34) versus 3% (1 out of 31), p<0.0001) was also significantly higher in the AZM arm and persisted at 72 weeks. Similar findings were observed for sputa. The persistence of antibiotic resistance and its clinical relevance for future infectious episodes requiring treatment needs further investigation

The use of simulation to prepare and improve responses to infectious disease outbreaks like COVID-19: practical tips and resources from Norway, Denmark, and the UK.

In this paper, we describe the potential of simulation to improve hospital responses to the COVID-19 crisis. We provide tools which can be used to analyse the current needs of the situation, explain how simulation can help to improve responses to the crisis, what the key issues are with integrating simulation into organisations, and what to focus on when conducting simulations. We provide an overview of helpful resources and a collection of scenarios and support for centre-based and in situ simulations

The genomics of heart failure: design and rationale of the HERMES consortium

AIMS: The HERMES (HEart failure Molecular Epidemiology for Therapeutic targetS) consortium aims to identify the genomic and molecular basis of heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: The consortium currently includes 51 studies from 11 countries, including 68 157 heart failure cases and 949 888 controls, with data on heart failure events and prognosis. All studies collected biological samples and performed genome-wide genotyping of common genetic variants. The enrolment of subjects into participating studies ranged from 1948 to the present day, and the median follow-up following heart failure diagnosis ranged from 2 to 116 months. Forty-nine of 51 individual studies enrolled participants of both sexes; in these studies, participants with heart failure were predominantly male (34–90%). The mean age at diagnosis or ascertainment across all studies ranged from 54 to 84 years. Based on the aggregate sample, we estimated 80% power to genetic variant associations with risk of heart failure with an odds ratio of ≥1.10 for common variants (allele frequency ≥ 0.05) and ≥1.20 for low-frequency variants (allele frequency 0.01–0.05) at P < 5 × 10^{-8} under an additive genetic model. CONCLUSIONS: HERMES is a global collaboration aiming to (i) identify the genetic determinants of heart failure; (ii) generate insights into the causal pathways leading to heart failure and enable genetic approaches to target prioritization; and (iii) develop genomic tools for disease stratification and risk prediction

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Maternal mortality and morbidity burden in the Eastern Mediterranean region : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

Assessing the burden of maternal mortality is important for tracking progress and identifying public health gaps. This paper provides an overview of the burden of maternal mortality in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) by underlying cause and age from 1990 to 2015. We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to explore maternal mortality in the EMR countries. The maternal mortality ratio in the EMR decreased 16.3% from 283 (241-328) maternal deaths per 100,000 live births in 1990 to 237 (188-293) in 2015. Maternal mortality ratio was strongly correlated with socio-demographic status, where the lowest-income countries contributed the most to the burden of maternal mortality in the region. Progress in reducing maternal mortality in the EMR has accelerated in the past 15 years, but the burden remains high. Coordinated and rigorous efforts are needed to make sure that adequate and timely services and interventions are available for women at each stage of reproductive life