Uniform electron gases

We show that the traditional concept of the uniform electron gas (UEG) --- a homogeneous system of finite density, consisting of an infinite number of electrons in an infinite volume --- is inadequate to model the UEGs that arise in finite systems. We argue that, in general, a UEG is characterized by at least two parameters, \textit{viz.} the usual one-electron density parameter $\rho$ and a new two-electron parameter $\eta$. We outline a systematic strategy to determine a new density functional $E(\rho,\eta)$ across the spectrum of possible $\rho$ and $\eta$ values.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, 5 table

Bayesian Phylogeography Finds Its Roots

As a key factor in endemic and epidemic dynamics, the geographical distribution of viruses has been frequently interpreted in the light of their genetic histories. Unfortunately, inference of historical dispersal or migration patterns of viruses has mainly been restricted to model-free heuristic approaches that provide little insight into the temporal setting of the spatial dynamics. The introduction of probabilistic models of evolution, however, offers unique opportunities to engage in this statistical endeavor. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, visualization and hypothesis testing of phylogeographic history. By implementing character mapping in a Bayesian software that samples time-scaled phylogenies, we enable the reconstruction of timed viral dispersal patterns while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. Standard Markov model inference is extended with a stochastic search variable selection procedure that identifies the parsimonious descriptions of the diffusion process. In addition, we propose priors that can incorporate geographical sampling distributions or characterize alternative hypotheses about the spatial dynamics. To visualize the spatial and temporal information, we summarize inferences using virtual globe software. We describe how Bayesian phylogeography compares with previous parsimony analysis in the investigation of the influenza A H5N1 origin and H5N1 epidemiological linkage among sampling localities. Analysis of rabies in West African dog populations reveals how virus diffusion may enable endemic maintenance through continuous epidemic cycles. From these analyses, we conclude that our phylogeographic framework will make an important asset in molecular epidemiology that can be easily generalized to infer biogeogeography from genetic data for many organisms

Are youth mentoring programs good value-for-money? An evaluation of the Big Brothers Big Sisters Melbourne Program

Background : The Big Brothers Big Sisters (BBBS) program matches vulnerable young people with a trained, supervised adult volunteer as mentor. The young people are typically seriously disadvantaged, with multiple psychosocial problems.Methods : Threshold analysis was undertaken to determine whether investment in the program was a worthwhile use of limited public funds. The potential cost savings were based on US estimates of life-time costs associated with high-risk youth who drop out-of-school and become adult criminals. The intervention was modelled for children aged 10&ndash;14 years residing in Melbourne in 2004.Results : If the program serviced 2,208 of the most vulnerable young people, it would cost AUD 39.5 M. Assuming 50% were high-risk, the associated costs of their adult criminality would be AUD 3.3 billion. To break even, the program would need to avert high-risk behaviours in only 1.3% (14/1,104) of participants.Conclusion : This indicative evaluation suggests that the BBBS program represents excellent \u27value for money\u27.<br /

Bridging the gap between the economic evaluation literature and daily practice in occupational health: a qualitative study among decision-makers in the healthcare sector

Background: Continued improvements in occupational health can only be ensured if decisions regarding the implementation and continuation of occupational health and safety interventions (OHS interventions) are based on the best available evidence. To ensure that this is the case, scientific evidence should meet the needs of decision-makers. As a first step in bridging the gap between the economic evaluation literature and daily practice in occupational health, this study aimed to provide insight into the occupational health decision-making process and information needs of decision-makers.Methods: An exploratory qualitative study was conducted with a purposeful sample of occupational health decision-makers in the Ontario healthcare sector. Eighteen in-depth interviews were conducted to explore the process by which occupational health decisions are made and the importance given to the financial implications of OHS interventions. Twenty-five structured telephone interviews were conducted to explore the sources of information used during the decision-making process, and decision-makers' knowledge on economic evaluation methods. In-depth interview data were analyzed according to the constant comparative method. For the structured telephone interviews, summary statistics were prepared.Results: The occupational health decision-making process generally consists of three stages: initiation stage, establishing the need for an intervention; pre-implementation stage, developing an intervention and its business case in order to receive senior management approval; and implementation and evaluation stage, implementing and evaluating an intervention. During this process, information on the financial implications of OHS interventions was found to be of great importance, especially the employer's costs and benefits. However, scientific evidence was rarely consulted, sound ex-post program evaluations were hardly ever performed, and there seemed to be a need to advance the economic evaluation skill set of decision-makers.Conclusions: Financial information is particularly important at the front end of implementation decisions, and can be a key deciding factor of whether to go forward with a new OHS intervention. In addition, it appears that current practice in occupational health in the healthcare sector is not solidly grounded in evidence-based decision-making and strategies should be developed to improve this. © 2013 van Dongen et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Evolution favors protein mutational robustness in sufficiently large populations

BACKGROUND: An important question is whether evolution favors properties such as mutational robustness or evolvability that do not directly benefit any individual, but can influence the course of future evolution. Functionally similar proteins can differ substantially in their robustness to mutations and capacity to evolve new functions, but it has remained unclear whether any of these differences might be due to evolutionary selection for these properties. RESULTS: Here we use laboratory experiments to demonstrate that evolution favors protein mutational robustness if the evolving population is sufficiently large. We neutrally evolve cytochrome P450 proteins under identical selection pressures and mutation rates in populations of different sizes, and show that proteins from the larger and thus more polymorphic population tend towards higher mutational robustness. Proteins from the larger population also evolve greater stability, a biophysical property that is known to enhance both mutational robustness and evolvability. The excess mutational robustness and stability is well described by existing mathematical theories, and can be quantitatively related to the way that the proteins occupy their neutral network. CONCLUSIONS: Our work is the first experimental demonstration of the general tendency of evolution to favor mutational robustness and protein stability in highly polymorphic populations. We suggest that this phenomenon may contribute to the mutational robustness and evolvability of viruses and bacteria that exist in large populations

DIgital Alcohol Management ON Demand (DIAMOND) feasibility randomised controlled trial of a web-based intervention to reduce alcohol consumption in people with hazardous and harmful use versus a face-to-face intervention: protocol.

BACKGROUND: "Hazardous and harmful" drinkers make up approximately 23 % of the adult population in England. However, only around 10 % of these people access specialist care, such as face-to-face extended brief treatment in community alcohol services. This may be due to stigma, difficulty accessing services during working hours, a shortage of trained counsellors and limited provision of services in many places. Web-based alcohol treatment programmes may overcome these barriers and may better suit people who are reluctant or unable to attend face-to-face services, but there is a gap in the evidence base for the acceptability, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of these programmes compared with treatment as usual (TAU) in community alcohol services. This study aims investigate the feasibility of all parts of a randomised controlled trial (RCT) of a psychologically informed web-based alcohol treatment programme called Healthy Living for People who use Alcohol (HeLP-Alcohol) versus TAU in community alcohol services, e.g. recruitment and retention, online data collection methods, and the use and acceptability of the intervention to participants. METHODS: A feasibility RCT delivered in north London community alcohol services, comparing HeLP-Alcohol with TAU. Potential participants are aged ≥18 years referred or self-referred for hazardous and harmful use of alcohol, without co-morbidities or other complex problems. The main purpose of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of recruiting participants to the study and will test online methods for collecting baseline demographic and outcome questionnaire data, randomising participants and collecting 3-month follow-up data. The acceptability of this intervention will be measured by recruitment and retention rates, automated log-in data collection and an online service satisfaction questionnaire. The feasibility of using tailored text message, email or phone prompt to maintain engagement with the intervention will also be explored. Results of the study will inform a definitive Phase 3 RCT. RESULTS: Recruitment started on 26 September 2014 and will run for 1 year. CONCLUSION: The proposed trial will provide data to inform a fully powered non-inferiority effectiveness and cost-effectiveness RCT comparing HeLP-Alcohol with TAU. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN31789096

The episodic random utility model unifies time trade-off and discrete choice approaches in health state valuation

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: To present an episodic random utility model that unifies time trade-off and discrete choice approaches in health state valuation. METHODS: First, we introduce two alternative random utility models (RUMs) for health preferences: the episodic RUM and the more common instant RUM. For the interpretation of time trade-off (TTO) responses, we show that the episodic model implies a coefficient estimator, and the instant model implies a mean slope estimator. Secondly, we demonstrate these estimators and the differences between the estimates for 42 health states using TTO responses from the seminal Measurement and Valuation in Health (MVH) study conducted in the United Kingdom. Mean slopes are estimates with and without Dolan's transformation of worse-than-death (WTD) responses. Finally, we demonstrate an exploded probit estimator, an extension of the coefficient estimator for discrete choice data that accommodates both TTO and rank responses. RESULTS: By construction, mean slopes are less than or equal to coefficients, because slopes are fractions and, therefore, magnify downward errors in WTD responses. The Dolan transformation of WTD responses causes mean slopes to increase in similarity to coefficient estimates, yet they are not equivalent (i.e., absolute mean difference = 0.179). Unlike mean slopes, coefficient estimates demonstrate strong concordance with rank-based predictions (Lin's rho = 0.91). Combining TTO and rank responses under the exploded probit model improves the identification of health state values, decreasing the average width of confidence intervals from 0.057 to 0.041 compared to TTO only results. CONCLUSION: The episodic RUM expands upon the theo

Phylogenetic Codivergence Supports Coevolution of Mimetic Heliconius Butterflies

The unpalatable and warning-patterned butterflies _Heliconius erato_ and _Heliconius melpomene_ provide the best studied example of mutualistic M&#xfc;llerian mimicry, thought &#x2013; but rarely demonstrated &#x2013; to promote coevolution. Some of the strongest available evidence for coevolution comes from phylogenetic codivergence, the parallel divergence of ecologically associated lineages. Early evolutionary reconstructions suggested codivergence between mimetic populations of _H. erato_ and _H. melpomene_, and this was initially hailed as the most striking known case of coevolution. However, subsequent molecular phylogenetic analyses found discrepancies in phylogenetic branching patterns and timing (topological and temporal incongruence) that argued against codivergence. We present the first explicit cophylogenetic test of codivergence between mimetic populations of _H. erato_ and _H. melpomene_, and re-examine the timing of these radiations. We find statistically significant topological congruence between multilocus coalescent population phylogenies of _H. erato_ and _H. melpomene_, supporting repeated codivergence of mimetic populations. Divergence time estimates, based on a Bayesian coalescent model, suggest that the evolutionary radiations of _H. erato_ and _H. melpomene_ occurred over the same time period, and are compatible with a series of temporally congruent codivergence events. This evidence supports a history of reciprocal coevolution between M&#xfc;llerian co-mimics characterised by phylogenetic codivergence and parallel phenotypic change

Assessing constancy of substitution rates in viruses over evolutionary time

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Phylogenetic analyses reveal probable patterns of divergence of present day organisms from common ancestors. The points of divergence of lineages can be dated if a corresponding historical or fossil record exists. For many species, in particular viruses, such records are rare. Recently, Bayesian phylogenetic analysis using sequences from closely related organisms isolated at different times have been used to calibrate divergences. Phylogenetic analyses depend on the assumption that the average substitution rates that can be calculated from the data apply throughout the course of evolution. </p> <p>Results</p> <p>The present study tests this crucial assumption by charting the kinds of substitutions observed between pairs of sequences with different levels of total substitutions. Datasets of aligned sequences, both viral and non-viral, were assembled. For each pair of sequences in an aligned set, the distribution of nucleotide interchanges and the total number of changes were calculated. Data were binned according to total numbers of changes and plotted. The accumulation of the six possible interchange types in retroelements as a function of distance followed closely the expected hyperbolic relationship. For other datasets, however, significant deviations from this relationship were noted. A rapid initial accumulation of transition interchanges was frequent among the datasets and anomalous changes occurred at specific divergence levels. </p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The accumulation profiles suggested that substantial changes in frequencies of types of substitutions occur over the course of evolution and that such changes should be considered in evaluating and dating viral phylogenies.</p

The pathogenesis of low pathogenicity H7 avian influenza viruses in chickens, ducks and turkeys

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Avian influenza (AI) viruses infect numerous avian species, and low pathogenicity (LP) AI viruses of the H7 subtype are typically reported to produce mild or subclinical infections in both wild aquatic birds and domestic poultry. However relatively little work has been done to compare LPAI viruses from different avian species for their ability to cause disease in domestic poultry under the same conditions. In this study twelve H7 LPAI virus isolates from North America were each evaluated for their comparative pathogenesis in chickens, ducks, and turkeys.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All 12 isolates were able to infect all three species at a dose of 10⁶50% egg infectious doses based on seroconversion, although not all animals seroconverted with each isolate-species combination. The severity of disease varied among isolate and species combinations, but there was a consistent trend for clinical disease to be most severe in turkeys where all 12 isolates induced disease, and mortality was observed in turkeys exposed to 9 of the 12 viruses. Turkeys also shed virus by the oral and cloacal routes at significantly higher titers than either ducks or chickens at numerous time points. Only 3 isolates induced observable clinical disease in ducks and only 6 isolates induced disease in chickens, which was generally very mild and did not result in mortality. Full genome sequence was completed for all 12 isolates and some isolates did have features consistent with adaptation to poultry (e.g. NA stalk deletions), however none of these features correlated with disease severity.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The data suggests that turkeys may be more susceptible to clinical disease from the H7 LPAI viruses included in this study than either chickens or ducks. However the severity of disease and degree of virus shed was not clearly correlated with any isolate or group of isolates, but relied on specific species and isolate combinations.</p