Distribution des précipitations hivernales sur le Maroc dans le cadre d'un changement climatique : descente d'échelle et incertitudes

Dans le contexte du changement climatique, il est nécessaire d'affiner les informations relatives à l'évolution du climat dans un pays, susceptible d'être négativement impacté par le réchauffement global, comme le Maroc. En effet, les différentes études de projections futures, dont celles du GIEC, sont basées majoritairement sur les sorties de modèles climatiques à faible résolution qui ne permettent pas d'aborder les échelles régionales et locales. La première partie de ce travail concerne l'étude des tendances et évolutions observées au niveau du climat du Maroc à travers un certain nombre d'indices climatiques. Outre la forte variabilité interannuelle des précipitations et l'augmentation de la fréquence des sécheresses depuis le début des années 1980, la distribution des précipitations du Maroc a bien connu un changement au cours de la période 1961-2008. Ce changement, consistant en une évolution vers des conditions plus sèches, a coïncidé avec une augmentation de la température moyenne en toutes saisons. L'évaluation des changements futurs est réalisée tout d'abord à l'aide d'une descente d'échelle dynamique effectuée avec le modèle ARPEGE-Climat dans sa version à résolution variable. L'examen des capacités du modèle, dont la résolution est de l'ordre de 50km sur le Maroc, a montré son aptitude à simuler correctement la circulation de grande échelle ainsi que la variabilité interannuelle des précipitations marocaines en dépit d'une sous-estimation de leur quantité. A l'horizon 2021-2050, une baisse des cumuls généralisée à tout le pays concernerait la saison d'hiver (DJF). Si on se limite à la zone située à l'ouest des montagnes de l'Atlas, la baisse concernerait la partie la plus pluvieuse de l'année (ONDJFM). Cette baisse serait accompagnée d'une diminution du nombre de jours humides et du nombre d'événements de fortes précipitations ainsi que d'une augmentation de la persistance temporelle de la sécheresse. Ce changement de la distribution des précipitations coïnciderait avec un réchauffement qui se manifesterait à la fois aux échelles saisonnière et annuelle. Les sorties d'une dizaine de modèles régionaux de climat (MRC) du projet FP6-ENSEMBLES, sont utilisées pour balayer une partie de la marge des incertitudes relatives aux changements climatiques et notamment celles inhérentes à la modélisation. Les changements futurs issus de ces MRC, compatibles dans l'ensemble avec ceux issus d'ARPEGE-Climat, optent dans la plupart des cas pour une réduction des cumuls pluviométriques de l'hiver accompagnée généralement d'une baisse du nombre d'événements de fortes précipitations et d'une augmentation du nombre maximal de jours consécutifs secs. L'examen, réalisé à la fois à l'aide du modèle ARPEGE-Climat et des MRC d'ENSEMBLES, de la possibilité d'utilisation d'une méthode de réduction d'échelle statistique basée sur les régimes de temps de l'Atlantique nord pour la déduction des changements futurs des précipitations locales, montre la déficience de ce type d'approche dans le cas de la pluviométrie hivernale marocaine. La méthode de correction par quantiles étendues aux régimes de temps de l'Atlantique nord et appliquée aux sorties d'ARPEGE-Climat confirme le signe des changements issus de ce modèles, malgré un effet légèrement modérateur de leurs amplitudes. L'évaluation des impacts potentiels sur l'hydrologie à l'aide du modèle hydrologique GR2M et des scénarios climatiques d'ARPEGE-Climat, montre une future réduction des débits mensuels au niveau du bassin versant de la Moulouya du fait de la concomitance de précipitations moins abondantes et d'une évapotranspiration potentielle accrue par l'augmentation de température. Enfin, une descente d'échelle dynamique réalisée à l'aide du modèle à aire limitée ALADIN-Climat à très haute résolution (12km) sur la moitié nord du pays permet de confirmer dans l'ensemble les projections issues d'ARPEGE-Climat à la fois en termes de moyennes et d'extrêmes. ABSTRACT : In the context of climate change, it is important to improve climate information concerning countries that may be negatively impacted by global warming such as Morocco. Indeed, various studies of future projections, including IPCC ones, are mainly based on the outputs of low resolution climate models that do not allow accessing the regional and local scales. The first part of this work focuses on the study and analysis of observed climate evolution and trends in Morocco through a set of climate indices. Moroccan rainfall is characterized by a high interannual variability and more frequent droughts have occurred since the early 1980s. Furthermore, a clear change is shown in the distribution of precipitation during the period 1961-2008. It consists in a shift towards warmer and drier conditions. The assessment of future climate changes is done, firstly, using a variable resolution version of the global GCM ARPEGE-Climat with high resolution over Morocco (50km). The examination of this version capability shows the ability of the model to well reproduce the large scale circulation as well as the interannual variability of Moroccan rainfall despite an underestimation of its amount. A reduction of winter rainfall over the whole country is projected by the model for 2021-2050. In the region located west of the Atlas Mountains, the reduction could concern the wettest part of the year (ONDJFM). The changes in rainfall characteristics may also occur through a decrease in the number of wet days and the number of heavy precipitation events and by more persistent droughts. Furthermore, an increase of mean temperature is projected at annual and seasonal scales. The outputs of ten RCMs of the FP6-ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLES) project are used to assess the uncertainties associated to future climate change. The changes issued from ARPEGE-Climat are in the range covered by the ten RCMs. Most of the models agreed on a reduction of winter precipitation associated with a decrease in the number of heavy precipitation events and an increase in the number of maximum consecutive dry days. The evaluation of a statistical downscaling approach that uses large scale fields such as North Atlantic weather regimes to construct local scenarios of future climate change shows the deficiency of this approach in the case of Moroccan winter precipitation. This result is obtained by both ARPEGE-Climat and the ENSEMBLES RCMs. The quantile-quantile correction method extended to weather regimes and applied to the outputs of ARPEGE-Climat confirms the sign of the changes despite a slight reduction of their amplitudes. The assessment of potential impacts on hydrology done using the hydrological model GR2M and the climate scenarios issued from ARPEGE-Climat shows a future reduction of the Moulouya watershed discharges. This is due to the combination of a rainfall decrease and an enhanced potential evapotranspiration induced by increasing temperature. Finally, a dynamical downscaling achieved using the limited area model ALADINClimat with very high resolution (12km) on the northern half of the country allows a further assessment of future climate changes and related uncertainties. The projections issued from ARPEGE-Climat are generally confirmed both in terms of average and of extreme

Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation events from different weighted multi-model ensembles over the northern half of Morocco

Internal variability, multiple emission scenarios, and diferent model responses to anthropogenic forcing are ultimately behind a wide range of uncertainties that arise in climate change projections. Model weighting approaches are generally used to reduce the uncertainty related to the choice of the climate model. This study compares three multi-model combination approaches: a simple arithmetic mean and two recently developed weighting-based alternatives. One method takes into account models' performance only and the other accounts for models' performance and independence. The efect of these three multi-model approaches is assessed for projected changes of mean precipitation and temperature as well as four extreme indices over northern Morocco. We analyze diferent widely used high-resolution ensembles issued from statistical (NEXGDDP) and dynamical (Euro-CORDEX and bias-adjusted Euro-CORDEX) downscaling. For the latter, we also investigate the potential added value that bias adjustment may have over the raw dynamical simulations. Results show that model weighting can signifcantly reduce the spread of the future projections increasing their reliability. Nearly all model ensembles project a signifcant warming over the studied region (more intense inland than near the coasts), together with longer and more severe dry periods. In most cases, the diferent weighting methods lead to almost identical spatial patterns of climate change, indicating that the uncertainty due to the choice of multi-model combination strategy is nearly negligible

Enhancing the Uptake of Earth Observation Products and Services in Africa Through a Multi-level Transdisciplinary Approach

Africa stands to gain from Earth Observation (EO) science, products and applications. However, its use and application remain below potential on the continent. This article examines how EO can better serve the needs of African users. First, we argue that a successful uptake of EO services is conditional on understanding the African context and matching EO development and deployment to it. Using reference cases, we find that actors outside Africa drive most EO initiatives, whereas country-level expenditures on EO remain low. Recent developments, such as the African space policy and strategy, and initiatives in partnerships with Africa-based organisations to develop a community of practice on EO hold the potential to fill the identified gaps. The analysis indicates that most EO users are either government organisations or researchers, with very few cases involving other types of users. It is generally assumed that users at the local levels are educated and digitally literate, or that the transmission of EO-based knowledge is achieved by government officers and researchers. Although still very few, potentials are emerging for the private sector to deploy EO products and services such as crop or index-based insurance directly to farmers. These private initiatives have prospects for further developing indigenous EO capacity as envisioned in the African space policy and strategy. We then formulate recommendations for a transdisciplinary approach that integrates user contexts, attributes and needs to enhance the uptake of EO products and services in Africa. We conclude by proposing actions to close some of the identified gaps and seize emerging opportunities

Enhancing the Uptake of Earth Observation Products and Services in Africa Through a Multi-level Transdisciplinary Approach.

Africa stands to gain from Earth Observation (EO) science, products and applications. However, its use and application remain below potential on the continent. This article examines how EO can better serve the needs of African users. First, we argue that a successful uptake of EO services is conditional on understanding the African context and matching EO development and deployment to it. Using reference cases, we find that actors outside Africa drive most EO initiatives, whereas country-level expenditures on EO remain low. Recent developments, such as the African space policy and strategy, and initiatives in partnerships with Africa-based organisations to develop a community of practice on EO hold the potential to fill the identified gaps. The analysis indicates that most EO users are either government organisations or researchers, with very few cases involving other types of users. It is generally assumed that users at the local levels are educated and digitally literate, or that the transmission of EO-based knowledge is achieved by government officers and researchers. Although still very few, potentials are emerging for the private sector to deploy EO products and services such as crop or index-based insurance directly to farmers. These private initiatives have prospects for further developing indigenous EO capacity as envisioned in the African space policy and strategy. We then formulate recommendations for a transdisciplinary approach that integrates user contexts, attributes and needs to enhance the uptake of EO products and services in Africa. We conclude by proposing actions to close some of the identified gaps and seize emerging opportunities. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10712-022-09724-1

Extreme weather associated with atmospheric rivers over Morocco

Abstrac

Atmospheric rivers and associated extreme rainfall over Morocco

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow, and transient corridors of enhanced water vapour content in the lower troposphere, associated with strong low-level winds. These features play a key role in the global water cycle and drive weather extremes in many parts of the world. Here, we assessed the frequency and general characteristics of landfalling ARs over Morocco for the period 1979–2020. We used ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data to detect and track landfalling ARs and then assessed AR association with rainfall at the annual and seasonal scales, as well as extreme rainfall events (defined as a daily precipitation amount exceeding the 99th percentile threshold of the wet days) at 30 gauging stations located across Morocco. Results indicate that about 36 ARs/year make landfall in Morocco. AR occurrence varies spatially and seasonally with highest occurrences in the autumn (SON) and Winter (DJF) in the northern part of the country and along the Atlantic across northern regions. AR rainfall climatology indicates up to 180 mm·year−1 recorded in stations located in the northwest. High fractional contributions (~28%) are recorded in the north and the Atlantic regions, with the driest regions of the south receiving about a third of their annual rainfall from ARs. For extreme rainfall, the highest AR contributions can attain over 50% in the southern dry regions and along the Atlantic north coast and Atlas highlands

Recent observed country‐wide climate trends in Morocco

In this study, we evaluate trends in precipitation and temperature and their related extreme indices in Morocco based on a set of National Climate Monitoring Products defined the by the commission for climatology of the WMO. We use daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature data from 30 meteorological stations distributed throughout the country and covering the period from 1960 to 2016. Statistically significant increasing trends in warm temperature events and a tendency towards decreasing cold extremes at both daytime and night are depicted across the country consistent with the generalized observed global warming. We found that the daily temperature in Morocco has risen with higher rates than the global scale. The depicted trend of 0.33°C per decade corresponds to a warming of approximately 1.1°C for the period 1984‐2016. The annual mean precipitation and the standardized drought index show less spatially consistent tendencies despite the predominance of negative trends. Considering the effect of the warming in the analysis of drought evolution using the Standardised Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index, we detected statistically significant trends towards dryer conditions in different regions of the northern half of the country. Analysis of the relationship between precipitation in Morocco and the large‐scale atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic area confirmed the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation, especially for the winter season (with low influence at the annual scale). Moreover, we found that the NAO exerts significant influence on winter extreme temperatures during night time. However, such correlations alone may not explain the depicted significant generalized warming trends and the drying evolution

Evaluating the highest temperature extremes in the antarctic

The record high temperature for regions south of 60°S latitude is a balmy 19.8°C (67.6°F), recorded 30 January 1982 at a research station on Signy Island

L'adaptation au changement climatique dans le bassin de Tensift au Maroc par une gestion améliorée du bassin versant et le paiement pour les services environnementaux - rapport final

Ce projet bénéficie d'une subvention du Centre de recherches pour le développement international (CRDI), Ottawa, Canada.Le défi que le présent projet de recherche a essayé de relever est de trouver des pistes pour repenser la GIRE dans un contexte du changement climatique, tout en prenant en considération le maintien de la production des biens et services environnementaux. Ceci ne pourra se réaliser qu’à travers des actions permettant de prendre en considération la donne climatique et les instruments basés sur le marché (e.g. le Paiement pour les Services Environnementaux (PSE)) dans les politiques de gestion de l’eau