Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change

Fire activity in Australia is strongly affected by high inter-annual climate variability and extremes. Through changes in the climate, anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter fire dynamics. Here we compile satellite (19 and 32 years) and ground-based (90 years) burned area datasets, climate and weather observations, and simulated fuel loads for Australian forests. Burned area in Australia’s forests shows a linear positive annual trend but an exponential increase during autumn and winter. The mean number of years since the last fire has decreased consecutively in each of the past four decades, while the frequency of forest megafire years (>1 Mha burned) has markedly increased since 2000. The increase in forest burned area is consistent with increasingly more dangerous fire weather conditions, increased risk factors associated with pyroconvection, including fire-generated thunderstorms, and increased ignitions from dry lightning, all associated to varying degrees with anthropogenic climate change

Modelling the impact of social protection on tuberculosis: the S-PROTECT project.

BACKGROUND: Tackling the social determinants of Tuberculosis (TB) through social protection is a key element of the post-2015 End TB Strategy. However, evidence informing policies are still scarce. Mathematical modelling has the potential to contribute to fill this knowledge gap, but existing models are inadequate. The S-PROTECT consortium aimed to develop an innovative mathematical modelling approach to better understand the role of social protection to improve TB care, prevention and control. METHODS: S-PROTECT used a three-steps approach: 1) the development of a conceptual framework; 2) the extraction from this framework of three high-priority mechanistic pathways amenable for modelling; 3) the development of a revised version of a standard TB transmission model able to capture the structure of these pathways. As a test case we used the Bolsa Familia Programme (BFP), the Brazilian conditional cash transfer scheme. RESULTS: Assessing one of these pathways, we estimated that BFP can reduce TB prevalence by 4% by improving households income and thus their nutritional status. When looking at the direct impact via malnutrition (not income mediated) the impact was 33%. This variation was due to limited data availability, uncertainties on data transformation and the pathway approach taken. These results are preliminary and only aim to serve as illustrative example of the methodological challenges encountered in this first modelling attempt, nonetheless they suggest the potential added value of integrating TB standard of care with social protection strategies. CONCLUSIONS: Results are to be confirmed with further analysis. However, by developing a generalizable modelling framework, S-PROTECT proved that the modelling of social protection is complex, but doable and allowed to draw the research road map for the future in this field

Effectiveness of low-dose theophylline for the management of biomass-associated COPD (LODOT-BCOPD): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: COPD is a leading cause of death globally, with the majority of morbidity and mortality occurring in low- and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. While tobacco-smoke exposure is the most important risk factor for COPD in high-income settings, household air pollution from biomass smoke combustion is a leading risk factor for COPD in LMICs. Despite the high burden of biomass smoke-related COPD, few studies have evaluated the efficacy of pharmacotherapy in this context. Currently recommended inhaler-based therapy for COPD is neither available nor affordable in most resource-limited settings. Low-dose theophylline is an oral, once-a-day therapy, long used in high-income countries (HICs), which has been proposed for the management of COPD in LMICs in the absence of inhaled steroids and/or bronchodilators. The Low-dose Theophylline for the Management of Biomass-Associated COPD (LODOT-BCOPD) trial investigates the clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of low-dose theophylline for the management of biomass-related COPD in a low-income setting. METHODS: LODOT-BCOPD is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to test the efficacy of low-dose theophylline in improving respiratory symptoms in 110 participants with moderate to severe COPD in Central Uganda. The inclusion criteria are as follows: (1) age 40 to 80 years, (2) full-time resident of the study area, (3) daily biomass exposure, (4) post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC below the 5th percentile of the Global Lung Initiative mixed ethnic reference population, and (5) GOLD Grade B-D COPD. Participants will be randomly assigned to receive once daily low-dose theophylline (200 mg ER, Unicontin-E) or placebo for 52 weeks. All participants will receive education about self-management of COPD and rescue salbutamol inhalers. We will measure health status using the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) and quality of life using the EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) at baseline and every 6 months. In addition, we will assess household air pollution levels, serum inflammatory biomarkers (fibrinogen, hs-CRP), and theophylline levels at baseline, 1 month, and 6 months. The primary outcome is change in SGRQ score at 12 months. Lastly, we will assess the cost-effectiveness of the intervention by calculating quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) from the EQ-5D. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov  NCT03984188 . Registered on June 12, 2019 TRIAL ACRONYM: Low-dose Theophylline for the Management of Biomass-Associated COPD (LODOT-BCOPD)

The element abundance FIP effect in the quiet Sun

The Mg/Ne abundance ratio in the quiet Sun is measured in both network and supergranule cell centre regions through EUV spectra from the Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer on SOHO. Twenty four sets of data over the period 1996 March to 1998 June (corresponding to solar minimum) are studied. Emission lines of the sequences Ne IV-VII and Mg V-VIII are simultaneously analysed by comparing with theoretical emissivities from the CHIANTI database to yield the Mg/Ne abundance and emission measure over the temperature region 5.0 < logT < 6.1. The average enhancements over the photospheric Mg/Ne abundance are found to be 1.25 +/- 0.10 (network) and 1.66 +/- 0.23 (cell centres), significantly lower than the typical 4-5 enhancements found in the slow solar wind. This result implies that only a small fraction of the quiet Sun connects into the solar wind. The quiet Sun spectra are also utilised to determine the coronal density and temperature, leading to average values of 2.6^+0.5_-0.4 x 10^8 cm^-3 and log (T/K)=5.95 +/- 0.02. No significant trend with the rise in solar activity during 1996--98 is found for any of the derived quantities, implying that quiet Sun regions show little dependence on the solar cycle.Comment: 12 pages, 6 page

Communication in Diagnostic Radiology

Communication in the diagnostic radiology department in regard to the current work load has been discussed with certain recommendations being made to increase efficiency. The need for improvement in communication equipment and techniques is necessitated by problems facing diagnostic radiology today.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73519/1/j.1440-1673.1972.tb01316.x.pd

Search for photospheric footpoints of quiet Sun transition region loops

CONTEXT:The footpoints of quiet Sun Transition Region (TR) loops do not seem to coincide with the photospheric magnetic structures appearing in traditional low-sensitivity magnetograms. AIMS: To look for the so-far unidentified photospheric footpoints of TR loops using G-band bright points (BPs) as proxies for photospheric magnetic field concentrations. METHODS: Comparison of TR measurements with SoHO/SUMER and photospheric magnetic field observations obtained with the Dutch Open Telescope. RESULTS: Photospheric BPs are associated with bright TR structures, but they seem to avoid the brightest parts of the structure. BPs appear in regions that are globally redshifted, but they avoid extreme velocities. TR explosive events are not clearly associated with BPs. CONCLUSIONS: The observations are not inconsistent with the BPs being footpoints of TR loops, although we have not succeeded to uniquely identify particular BPs with specific TR loops.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A. 10 pages, 10 figures. Due to size limitations, the quality of fig3 is not goo

Comparison of various climate change projections of eastern Australian rainfall

The Australian eastern seaboard is a distinct climate entity from the interior of the continent, with different climatic influences on each side of the Great Dividing Range. Therefore, it is plausible that downscaling of global climate models could reveal meaningful regional detail, or ‘added value’, in the climate change signal of mean rainfall change in eastern Australia un-der future scenarios. However, because downscaling is typically done using a limited set of global climate models and downscaling methods, the results from a downscaling study may not represent the range of uncertainty in plausible projected change for a region suggested by the ensemble of host global climate models. A complete and unbiased representation of the plausible changes in the climate is essential in producing climate projections useful for future planning. As part of this aim it is important to quantify any differences in the change signal between global climate models and downscaling, and understand the cause of these differ-ences in terms of plausible added regional detail in the climate change signal, the impact of sub-sampling global climate models and the effect of the downscaling models themselves. Here we examine rainfall projections in eastern Australia under a high emissions scenario by late in the century from ensembles of global climate models, two dynamical downscaling models and one statistical downscaling model. We find no cases where all three downscaling methods show the same clear regional spatial detail in the change signal that is distinct from the host models. However, some downscaled projections suggest that the eastern seaboard could see little change in spring rainfall, in contrast to the substantial rainfall decrease inland. The change signal in the downscaled outputs is broadly similar at the large scale in the various model outputs, with a few notable exceptions. For example, the model median from dynamical downscaling projects a rainfall increase over the entirety of eastern Australia in autumn that is greater than the global models. Also, there are some instances where a downscaling method produces changes outside the range of host models over eastern Australia as a whole, thus ex-panding the projected range of uncertainty. Results are particularly uncertain for summer, where no two downscaling studies clearly agree. There are also some confounding factors from the model configuration used in downscaling, where the particular zones used for statis-tical models and the model components used in dynamical models have an influence on results and produce additional uncertainty

Spectral quantification of nonlinear behaviour of the nearshore seabed and correlations with potential forcings at Duck, N.C., U.S.A

Local bathymetric quasi-periodic patterns of oscillation are identified from monthly profile surveys taken at two shore-perpendicular transects at the USACE field research facility in Duck, North Carolina, USA, spanning 24.5 years and covering the swash and surf zones. The chosen transects are the two furthest (north and south) from the pier located at the study site. Research at Duck has traditionally focused on one or more of these transects as the effects of the pier are least at these locations. The patterns are identified using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Possible correlations with potential forcing mechanisms are discussed by 1) doing an SSA with same parameter settings to independently identify the quasi-periodic cycles embedded within three potentially linked sequences: monthly wave heights (MWH), monthly mean water levels (MWL) and the large scale atmospheric index known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and 2) comparing the patterns within MWH, MWL and NAO to the local bathymetric patterns. The results agree well with previous patterns identified using wavelets and confirm the highly nonstationary behaviour of beach levels at Duck; the discussion of potential correlations with hydrodynamic and atmospheric phenomena is a new contribution. The study is then extended to all measured bathymetric profiles, covering an area of 1100m (alongshore) by 440m (cross-shore), to 1) analyse linear correlations between the bathymetry and the potential forcings using multivariate empirical orthogonal functions (MEOF) and linear correlation analysis and 2) identify which collective quasi-periodic bathymetric patterns are correlated with those within MWH, MWL or NAO, based on a (nonlinear) multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA). (...continued in submitted paper)Comment: 50 pages, 3 tables, 8 figure

Proteoglycan Breakdown of Meniscal Explants Following Dynamic Compression Using a Novel Bioreactor

Motivated by our interest in examining meniscal mechanotransduction processes, we report on the validation of a new tissue engineering bioreactor. This paper describes the design and performance capabilities of a tissue engineering bioreactor for cyclic compression of meniscal explants. We showed that the system maintains a tissue culture environment equivalent to that provided by conventional incubators and that its strain output was uniform and reproducible. The system incorporates a linear actuator and load cell aligned together in a frame that is contained within an incubator and allows for large loads and small displacements. A plunger with six Teflon-filled Delrin compression rods is attached to the actuator compressing up to six tissue explants simultaneously and with even pressure. The bioreactor system was used to study proteoglycan (PG) breakdown in porcine meniscal explants following various input loading tests (0–20% strain, 0–0.1 MPa). The greatest PG breakdown was measured following 20% compressive strain. These strain and stress levels have been shown to correspond to partial meniscectomy. Thus, these data suggest that removing 30–60% of meniscal tissue will result in the breakdown of meniscal tissue proteoglycans