Prediction of photoperiodic regulators from quantitative gene circuit models

Photoperiod sensors allow physiological adaptation to the changing seasons. The external coincidence hypothesis postulates that a light-responsive regulator is modulated by a circadian rhythm. Sufficient data are available to test this quantitatively in plants, though not yet in animals. In Arabidopsis, the clock-regulated genes CONSTANS (CO) and FLAVIN, KELCH, F-BOX (FKF1) and their lightsensitive proteins are thought to form an external coincidence sensor. We use 40 timeseries of molecular data to model the integration of light and timing information by CO, its target gene FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT), and the circadian clock. Among other predictions, the models show that FKF1 activates FT. We demonstrate experimentally that this effect is independent of the known activation of CO by FKF1, thus we locate a major, novel controller of photoperiodism. External coincidence is part of a complex photoperiod sensor: modelling makes this complexity explicit and may thus contribute to crop improvement

A Simple Colorimetric Assay for Specific Detection of Glutathione-S Transferase Activity Associated with DDT Resistance in Mosquitoes

Aedes mosquitoes transmit many human viral pathogens including dengue, yellow fever and chikungunya. Most of these pathogens have no specific treatment or vaccine and hence their control is reliant on controlling the mosquito vectors, which usually involves the use of insecticides. In order to prevent the alarming prospect of mosquito control failure due to the rapid selection and spread of insecticide resistance in several mosquito populations worldwide, it is essential that effective resistance management strategies are implemented and adhered to. The development of simple diagnostic tests for the early identification and monitoring of resistance is an important prerequisite for this task. Here, we describe the development of a simple colorimetric test for the detection of GSTE2-2/DDTase-based resistance in individual mosquitoes. The novel assay combines the most desirable features of specificity and sensitivity with the low cost and ease of use required for a routine test in endemic countries. It can have direct application in routine vector monitoring as a resistance indicator and help improve the sustainability of insecticide based control strategies

'Let's make lots of money': the determinants of performance in the recorded music sector

This research analyzes the performance of 467 record labels in eight European countries over a period of 13 years (2003-2015). The main goal is to explain a relative measure of profitability in terms of observed variables, although the nature of the dataset also allows us to include non-observed firm and country effects. To this end alternative models are estimated and three main research questions are tested, namely: (1) the effect of the dual structure of the recorded music market, in which a competitive segment and an oligopoly coexist; (2) the extent and source of the volatility of profits in record labels; and (3) the nonlinear impact of size on performance

Reliability and validity of three questionnaires measuring context-specific sedentary behaviour and associated correlates in adolescents, adults and older adults

BACKGROUND: Reliable and valid measures of total sedentary time, context-specific sedentary behaviour (SB) and its potential correlates are useful for the development of future interventions. The purpose was to examine test-retest reliability and criterion validity of three newly developed questionnaires on total sedentary time, context-specific SB and its potential correlates in adolescents, adults and older adults. METHODS: Reliability and validity was tested in six different samples of Flemish (Belgium) residents. For the reliability study, 20 adolescents, 22 adults and 20 older adults filled out the age-specific SB questionnaire twice. Test-retest reliability was analysed using Kappa coefficients, Intraclass Correlation Coefficients and/or percentage agreement, separately for the three age groups. For the validity study, data were retrieved from 62 adolescents, 33 adults and 33 older adults, with activPAL as criterion measure. Spearman correlations and Bland-Altman plots (or non-parametric approach) were used to analyse criterion validity, separately for the three age groups and for weekday, weekend day and average day. RESULTS: The test-retest reliability for self-reported total sedentary time indicated following values: ICC = 0.37-0.67 in adolescents; ICC = 0.73-0.77 in adults; ICC = 0.68-0.80 in older adults. Item-specific reliability results (e.g. context-specific SB and its potential correlates) showed good-to-excellent reliability in 67.94%, 68.90% and 66.38% of the items in adolescents, adults and older adults respectively. All items belonging to sedentary-related equipment and simultaneous SB showed good reliability. The sections of the questionnaire with lowest reliability were: context-specific SB (adolescents), potential correlates of computer use (adults) and potential correlates of motorized transport (older adults). Spearman correlations between self-reported total sedentary time and the activPAL were different for each age group: rho = 0.02-0.42 (adolescents), rho = 0.06-0.52 (adults), rho = 0.38-0.50 (older adults). Participants over-reported total sedentary time (except for weekend day in older adults) compared to the activPAL, for weekday, weekend day and average day respectively by +57.05%, +46.29%, +53.34% in adolescents; +40.40%, +19.15%, +32.89% in adults; +10.10%, -6.24%, +4.11% in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: The questionnaires showed acceptable test-retest reliability and criterion validity. However, over-reporting of total SB was noticeable in adolescents and adults. Nevertheless, these questionnaires will be useful in getting context-specific information on SB

Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normally distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalised assumption of normally distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to model distribution tails properly so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey in 2000 and combine GARCH-type models with the extreme value theory to estimate the tails of three financial index returns ¿ S&P 500, FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 ¿ representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are more accurate than those from conventional GARCH models assuming normal or Student¿s t distribution innovations when doing not only in-sample but also out-of-sample estimation. Moreover, these results are robust to alternative GARCH model specifications. The findings of this paper should be useful to investors in general, since their goal is to be able to forecast unforeseen price movements and take advantage of them by positioning themselves in the market according to these predictions

Multiday expected shortfall under generalized t distributions : evidence from global stock market

We apply seven alternative t-distributions to estimate the market risk measures Value at Risk (VaR) and its extension Expected Shortfall (ES). Of these seven, the twin t-distribution (TT) of Baker and Jackson (2014) and generalized asymmetric distribution (GAT) of Baker (2016) are applied for the first time to estimate market risk. We analytically estimate VaR and ES over one-day horizon and extend this to multi-day horizon using Monte Carlo simulation. We find that taken together TT and GAT distributions provide the best back-testing results across individual confidence levels and horizons for majority of scenarios. Moreover, we find that with the lengthening of time horizon, TT and GAT models performs well, such that at the ten-day horizon, GAT provides the best back-testing results for all of the five indices and the TT model provides the second best results, irrespective period of study and confidence level

Target Region Selection Is a Critical Determinant of Community Fingerprints Generated by 16S Pyrosequencing

Pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA genes allows for in-depth characterization of complex microbial communities. Although it is known that primer selection can influence the profile of a community generated by sequencing, the extent and severity of this bias on deep-sequencing methodologies is not well elucidated. We tested the hypothesis that the hypervariable region targeted for sequencing and primer degeneracy play important roles in influencing the composition of 16S pyrotag communities. Subgingival plaque from deep sites of current smokers with chronic periodontitis was analyzed using Sanger sequencing and pyrosequencing using 4 primer pairs. Greater numbers of species were detected by pyrosequencing than by Sanger sequencing. Rare taxa constituted nearly 6% of each pyrotag community and less than 1% of the Sanger sequencing community. However, the different target regions selected for pyrosequencing did not demonstrate a significant difference in the number of rare and abundant taxa detected. The genera Prevotella, Fusobacterium, Streptococcus, Granulicatella, Bacteroides, Porphyromonas and Treponema were abundant when the V1–V3 region was targeted, while Streptococcus, Treponema, Prevotella, Eubacterium, Porphyromonas, Campylobacer and Enterococcus predominated in the community generated by V4–V6 primers, and the most numerous genera in the V7–V9 community were Veillonella, Streptococcus, Eubacterium, Enterococcus, Treponema, Catonella and Selenomonas. Targeting the V4–V6 region failed to detect the genus Fusobacterium, while the taxa Selenomonas, TM7 and Mycoplasma were not detected by the V7–V9 primer pairs. The communities generated by degenerate and non-degenerate primers did not demonstrate significant differences. Averaging the community fingerprints generated by V1–V3 and V7–V9 primers providesd results similar to Sanger sequencing, while allowing a significantly greater depth of coverage than is possible with Sanger sequencing. It is therefore important to use primers targeted to these two regions of the 16S rRNA gene in all deep-sequencing efforts to obtain representational characterization of complex microbial communities

Mechanical model for a collagen fibril pair in extracellular matrix

In this paper, we model the mechanics of a collagen pair in the connective tissue extracellular matrix that exists in abundance throughout animals, including the human body. This connective tissue comprises repeated units of two main structures, namely collagens as well as axial, parallel and regular anionic glycosaminoglycan between collagens. The collagen fibril can be modeled by Hooke's law whereas anionic glycosaminoglycan behaves more like a rubber-band rod and as such can be better modeled by the worm-like chain model. While both computer simulations and continuum mechanics models have been investigated the behavior of this connective tissue typically, authors either assume a simple form of the molecular potential energy or entirely ignore the microscopic structure of the connective tissue. Here, we apply basic physical methodologies and simple applied mathematical modeling techniques to describe the collagen pair quantitatively. We find that the growth of fibrils is intimately related to the maximum length of the anionic glycosaminoglycan and the relative displacement of two adjacent fibrils, which in return is closely related to the effectiveness of anionic glycosaminoglycan in transmitting forces between fibrils. These reveal the importance of the anionic glycosaminoglycan in maintaining the structural shape of the connective tissue extracellular matrix and eventually the shape modulus of human tissues. We also find that some macroscopic properties, like the maximum molecular energy and the breaking fraction of the collagen, are also related to the microscopic characteristics of the anionic glycosaminoglycan