Modelling climate change responses in tropical forests: similar productivity estimates across five models, but different mechanisms and responses

Accurately predicting the response of Amazonia to climate change is important for predicting climate change across the globe. Changes in multiple climatic factors simultaneously result in complex non-linear ecosystem responses, which are difficult to predict using vegetation models. Using leaf- and canopy-scale observations, this study evaluated the capability of five vegetation models (Community Land Model version 3.5 coupled to the Dynamic Global Vegetation model – CLM3.5–DGVM; Ecosystem Demography model version 2 – ED2; the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator version 2.1 – JULES; Simple Biosphere model version 3 – SiB3; and the soil–plant–atmosphere model – SPA) to simulate the responses of leaf- and canopy-scale productivity to changes in temperature and drought in an Amazonian forest. The models did not agree as to whether gross primary productivity (GPP) was more sensitive to changes in temperature or precipitation, but all the models were consistent with the prediction that GPP would be higher if tropical forests were 5 °C cooler than current ambient temperatures. There was greater model–data consistency in the response of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) to changes in temperature than in the response to temperature by net photosynthesis (An), stomatal conductance (gs) and leaf area index (LAI). Modelled canopy-scale fluxes are calculated by scaling leaf-scale fluxes using LAI. At the leaf-scale, the models did not agree on the temperature or magnitude of the optimum points of An, Vcmax or gs, and model variation in these parameters was compensated for by variations in the absolute magnitude of simulated LAI and how it altered with temperature. Across the models, there was, however, consistency in two leaf-scale responses: (1) change in An with temperature was more closely linked to stomatal behaviour than biochemical processes; and (2) intrinsic water use efficiency (IWUE) increased with temperature, especially when combined with drought. These results suggest that even up to fairly extreme temperature increases from ambient levels (+6 °C), simulated photosynthesis becomes increasingly sensitive to gs and remains less sensitive to biochemical changes. To improve the reliability of simulations of the response of Amazonian rainforest to climate change, the mechanistic underpinnings of vegetation models need to be validated at both leaf- and canopy-scales to improve accuracy and consistency in the quantification of processes within and across an ecosystem.This research was enabled by a grant from the Andes–Amazon Initiative of The Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. L. Rowland gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Natural Environment Research Council (UK) for a NERC PhD studentship, and NERC grant NE/J011002/1; PM also acknowledges support from ARC FT110100457

Poor survival outcomes in HER2 positive breast cancer patients with low grade, node negative tumours

We present a retrospective analysis on a cohort of low-grade, node-negative patients showing that human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status significantly affects the survival in this otherwise very good prognostic group. Our results provide support for the use of adjuvant trastuzumab in patients who are typically classified as having very good prognosis, not routinely offered standard chemotherapy, and who as such do not fit current UK prescribing guidelines for trastuzumab

Investigation of Isoprene Dynamics During the Day‐to‐Night Transition Period

At the University of Michigan Biological Station during the 2016 AMOS field campaign, isoprene concentrations typically peak in the early afternoon (around 15:00 local time, LT) under well‐mixed conditions. However, an end‐of‐day peak (around 21:00 LT) occurs on 23% of the campaign days, followed by a rapid removal (from 21:00–22:00 LT) at rate of 0.57 hr−1 during the day‐to‐night transition period. During the end‐of‐day peak, in‐canopy isoprene concentrations increase by 77% (from 3.5 to 6.2 ppbv) on average. Stratification and weak winds (<3.4 m s−1 at 46 m) significantly suppress turbulent exchanges between in‐ and above‐canopy, leading to accumulation of isoprene emitted at dusk. A critical standard deviation of the vertical velocity (σw) of 0.14, 0.2, and 0.29 m s−1 is identified to detect the end‐of‐day peak for the height of 13, 21, and 34 m, respectively. In 85% of the end‐of‐day cases, the wind speed increases above 2.5 m s−1 after the peak along with a shift in wind direction, and turbulence is reestablished. Therefore, the wind speed of 2.5 m s−1 is considered as the threshold point where turbulence switches from being independent of wind speed to dependent on wind speed. The reinstated turbulence accounts for 80% of the subsequent isoprene removal with the remaining 20% explained by chemical reactions with hydroxyl radicals, ozone, and nitrate radicals. Observed isoprene fluxes do not support the argument that the end‐of‐day peak is reduced by vertical turbulent mixing, and we hypothesize that horizontal advection may play a role.Key PointsLow turbulent mixing during clear and calm nights leads to accumulation of isoprene within the canopyTurbulent mixing accounts for 80% of the observed nighttime isoprene loss ratesIsoprene flux measurements did not capture the majority of the removal of the accumulated isoprenePeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/163406/2/jgrd56554.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/163406/1/jgrd56554_am.pd

CDMSlite: A Search for Low-Mass WIMPs using Voltage-Assisted Calorimetric Ionization Detection in the SuperCDMS Experiment

SuperCDMS is an experiment designed to directly detect Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs), a favored candidate for dark matter ubiquitous in the Universe. In this paper, we present WIMP-search results using a calorimetric technique we call CDMSlite, which relies on voltage- assisted Luke-Neganov amplification of the ionization energy deposited by particle interactions. The data were collected with a single 0.6 kg germanium detector running for 10 live days at the Soudan Underground Laboratory. A low energy threshold of 170 eVee (electron equivalent) was obtained, which allows us to constrain new WIMP-nucleon spin-independent parameter space for WIMP masses below 6 GeV/c2.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

Results from the Super Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (SuperCDMS) experiment at Soudan

We report the result of a blinded search for Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) using the majority of the SuperCDMS Soudan dataset. With an exposure of 1690 kg days, a single candidate event is observed, consistent with expected backgrounds. This analysis (combined with previous Ge results) sets an upper limit on the spin-independent WIMP--nucleon cross section of $1.4 \times 10^{-44}$ ($1.0 \times 10^{-44}$) cm$^2$ at 46 GeV/$c^2$. These results set the strongest limits for WIMP--germanium-nucleus interactions for masses $>$12 GeV/$c^2$

The variation of productivity and its allocation along a tropical elevation gradient: a whole carbon budget perspective

Why do forest productivity and biomass decline with elevation? To address this question, research to date generally has focused on correlative approaches describing changes in woody growth and biomass with elevation. We present a novel, mechanistic approach to this question by quantifying the autotrophic carbon budget in 16 forest plots along a 3300 m elevation transect in Peru. Low growth rates at high elevations appear primarily driven by low gross primary productivity (GPP), with little shift in either carbon use efficiency (CUE) or allocation of net primary productivity (NPP) between wood, fine roots and canopy. The lack of trend in CUE implies that the proportion of photosynthate allocated to autotrophic respiration is not sensitive to temperature. Rather than a gradual linear decline in productivity, there is some limited but nonconclusive evidence of a sharp transition in NPP between submontane and montane forests, which may be caused by cloud immersion effects within the cloud forest zone. Leaf-level photosynthetic parameters do not decline with elevation, implying that nutrient limitation does not restrict photosynthesis at high elevations. Our data demonstrate the potential of whole carbon budget perspectives to provide a deeper understanding of controls on ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling

Photoproduction of phi(1020) mesons on the proton at large momentum transfer

The cross section for $\phi$ meson photoproduction on the proton has been measured for the first time up to a four-momentum transfer -t = 4 GeV^2, using the CLAS detector at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility. At low four-momentum transfer, the differential cross section is well described by Pomeron exchange. At large four-momentum transfer, above -t = 1.8 GeV^2, the data support a model where the Pomeron is resolved into its simplest component, two gluons, which may couple to any quark in the proton and in the $\phi$.Comment: 5 pages; 7 figure