GENERALIZED HEDGE RATIO ESTIMATION WITH AN UNKNOWN MODEL

Myers and Thompson (1989) pioneered the concept of a generalized approach to estimating hedge ratios, pointing out that the model specification could have a large impact on the hedge ratio estimated. While a huge empirical literature exists on estimating hedge ratios, the literature is lacking a formal treatment of model specification uncertainty. This research accomplishes that task by taking a Bayesian approach to hedge ratio estimation, where specification uncertainty is explicitly modeled. Specifically, we present a Bayesian approach to hedge ratio estimation that integrates over model specification uncertainty, yielding an optimal hedge ratio estimator that is robust to possible model specification because it is an average across a set of hedge ratios conditional on di erent models. Model specifications vary by exogenous variables (such as exports, stocks, and interest rates) and lag lengths included. The methodology is applied to data on corn and soybeans and results show the potential benefits and insights gained from such an approach.Marketing,

Generalized Hedge Ratio Estimation with an Unknown Model

Myers and Thompson (1989) noted that the model specification could have a large impact on the hedge ratio estimated. A huge literature exists on estimating hedge ratios, but the literature is lacking a formal treatment of model specification uncertainty. This research accomplishes that task by taking a Bayesian approach to hedge ratio estimation, where specification uncertainty is explicitly modeled. The methodology is applied to data on hedging of corn and soybeans and on cross-hedging of corn oil using soybean oil futures. Results show the potential benefits and insights gained from such an approach.Marketing,

Elucidation of Early Evolution of HIV-1 Group M in the Congo Basin Using Computational Methods

The Congo Basin region is believed to be the site of the cross-species transmission event that yielded HIV-1 group M (HIV-1M). It is thus likely that the virus has been present and evolving in the region since that cross-species transmission. As HIV-1M was only discovered in the early 1980s, our directly observed record of the epidemic is largely limited to the past four decades. Nevertheless, by exploiting the genetic relatedness of contemporary HIV-1M sequences, phylogenetic methods provide a powerful framework for investigating simultaneously the evolutionary and epidemiologic history of the virus. Such an approach has been taken to find that the currently classified HIV-1 M subtypes and Circulating Recombinant Forms (CRFs) do not give a complete view of HIV-1 diversity. In addition, the currently identified major HIV-1M subtypes were likely genetically predisposed to becoming a major component of the present epidemic, even before the events that resulted in the global epidemic. Further efforts have identified statistically significant hot- and cold-spots of HIV-1M subtypes sequence inheritance in genomic regions of recombinant forms. In this review we provide ours and others recent findings on the emergence and spread of HIV-1M variants in the region, which have provided insights into the early evolution of this virus

Detectable HIV-1 in semen in individuals with very low blood viral loads

Abstract Background Several reports indicate that a portion (5–10%) of men living with HIV-1 intermittently shed HIV-1 RNA into seminal plasma while on long term effective antiretroviral therapy (ART). This is highly suggestive of an HIV-1 reservoir in the male genital tract. However, the status of this reservoir in men living with HIV-1 who are not under treatment is underexplored and has implications for understanding the origins and evolution of the reservoir. Finding Forty-three HIV-1 positive, antiretroviral therapy naïve study participants attending a men’s health clinic were studied. Semen viral loads and blood viral loads were generally correlated, with semen viral loads generally detected in individuals with blood viral loads > 10,000 cp/ml. However, we found 1 individual with undetectable viral loads (<20cp/ml) and 2 individuals with very low blood viral load (97 and 333cp/ml), but with detectable HIV-1 in semen (485–1157 copies/semen sample). Blood viral loads in the first individual were undetectable when tested three times over the prior 5 years. Conclusions Semen HIV-1 viral loads are usually related to blood viral loads, as we confirm. Nonetheless, this was not true in a substantial minority of individuals suggesting unexpectedly high levels of replication in the male genital tract in a few individuals, despite otherwise effective immune control. This may reflect establishment of a local reservoir of HIV-1 populations

Acquisition of Ly49 Receptor Expression by Developing Natural Killer Cells

The formation of the repertoire of mouse natural killer (NK) cell receptors for major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I molecules was investigated by determining the developmental pattern of Ly49 receptor expression. During the first days after birth, few or no splenic NK cells express Ly49A, Ly49C, Ly49G2, or Ly49I receptors. The proportion of Ly49+ splenic NK cells gradually rises to adult levels during the first 6–8 wk of life. The appearance of appreciable numbers of splenic Ly49+ NK cells coincides with the appearance of NK activity at 3–4 wk. After in vivo transfer, NK cells not expressing specific Ly49 receptors can give rise to NK cells that do, and cells expressing one of these four Ly49 receptors can give rise to cells expressing others. Once initiated, expression of a Ly49 receptor is stable for at least 10 d after in vivo transfer. Hence, initiation of Ly49 receptor expression occurs successively. Interestingly, expression of one of the receptors tested, Ly49A, did not occur after in vivo transfer of Ly49A− cells. One possible explanation for these data is that the order of Ly49 receptor expression by NK cells is nonrandom. The results provide a framework for evaluating models of NK cell repertoire formation, and how the repertoire is molded by host class I MHC molecules

Incidence and risk factors for neonatal tetanus in admissions to Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Neonatal Tetanus (NT) is a preventable cause of mortality and neurological sequelae that occurs at higher incidence in resource-poor countries, presumably because of low maternal immunisation rates and unhygienic cord care practices. We aimed to determine changes in the incidence of NT, characterize and investigate the associated risk factors and mortality in a prospective cohort study including all admissions over a 15-year period at a County hospital on the Kenyan coast, a region with relatively high historical NT rates within Kenya. METHODS: We assessed all neonatal admissions to Kilifi County Hospital in Kenya (1999-2013) and identified cases of NT (standard clinical case definition) admitted during this time. Poisson regression was used to examine change in incidence of NT using accurate denominator data from an area of active demographic surveillance. Logistic regression was used to investigate the risk factors for NT and factors associated with mortality in NT amongst neonatal admissions. A subset of sera from mothers (n = 61) and neonates (n = 47) were tested for anti-tetanus antibodies. RESULTS: There were 191 NT admissions, of whom 187 (98%) were home deliveries. Incidence of NT declined significantly (Incidence Rate Ratio: 0.85 (95% Confidence interval 0.81-0.89), P<0.001) but the case fatality (62%) did not change over the study period (P = 0.536). Younger infant age at admission (P = 0.001) was the only independent predictor of mortality. Compared to neonatal hospital admittee controls, the proportion of home births was higher among the cases. Sera tested for antitetanus antibodies showed most mothers (50/61, 82%) had undetectable levels of antitetanus antibodies, and most (8/9, 89%) mothers with detectable antibodies had a neonate without protective levels. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence of NT in Kilifi County has significantly reduced, with reductions following immunisation campaigns. Our results suggest immunisation efforts are effective if sustained and efforts should continue to expand coverage

Executive Function and Falls in Older Adults: New Findings from a Five-Year Prospective Study Link Fall Risk to Cognition

Background: Recent findings suggest that executive function (EF) plays a critical role in the regulation of gait in older adults, especially under complex and challenging conditions, and that EF deficits may, therefore, contribute to fall risk. The objective of this study was to evaluate if reduced EF is a risk factor for future falls over the course of 5 years of follow-up. Secondary objectives were to assess whether single and dual task walking abilities, an alternative window into EF, were associated with fall risk. Methodology/Main Results We longitudinally followed 256 community-living older adults (age: 76.4±4.5 yrs; 61% women) who were dementia free and had good mobility upon entrance into the study. At baseline, a computerized cognitive battery generated an index of EF, attention, a closely related construct, and other cognitive domains. Gait was assessed during single and dual task conditions. Falls data were collected prospectively using monthly calendars. Negative binomial regression quantified risk ratios (RR). After adjusting for age, gender and the number of falls in the year prior to the study, only the EF index (RR: .85; CI: .74–.98, p = .021), the attention index (RR: .84; CI: .75–.94, p = .002) and dual tasking gait variability (RR: 1.11; CI: 1.01–1.23; p = .027) were associated with future fall risk. Other cognitive function measures were not related to falls. Survival analyses indicated that subjects with the lowest EF scores were more likely to fall sooner and more likely to experience multiple falls during the 66 months of follow-up (p<0.02). Conclusions/Significance: These findings demonstrate that among community-living older adults, the risk of future falls was predicted by performance on EF and attention tests conducted 5 years earlier. The present results link falls among older adults to cognition, indicating that screening EF will likely enhance fall risk assessment, and that treatment of EF may reduce fall risk

Two-particle cluster integral in the expansion of the dielectric constant

We study in detail the two-particle cluster integral in the cluster expansion for the effective dielectric constant of a suspension of spherically symmetric polarizable inclusions embedded in a uniform medium. Although our form for the integrand differs from that derived earlier by Finkel'berg and by Jeffrey, we show that the integral is equivalent. The two-body dielectric problem for particles with an arbitrary radial dependence of the dielectric constant is solved by an expansion in spherical harmonics. Numerical results for some special models illustrate the importance of multipole contributions to the effective dielectric constant.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/45143/1/10955_2005_Article_BF01011874.pd

mRNA Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine-Associated Myopericarditis in Adolescents: A Survey Study

In this survey study of institutions across the US, marked variability in evaluation, treatment, and follow-up of adolescents 12 through 18 years of age with mRNA coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine-associated myopericarditis was noted. Only one adolescent with life-threatening complications was reported, with no deaths at any of the participating institutions

Imaging biomarker roadmap for cancer studies.

Imaging biomarkers (IBs) are integral to the routine management of patients with cancer. IBs used daily in oncology include clinical TNM stage, objective response and left ventricular ejection fraction. Other CT, MRI, PET and ultrasonography biomarkers are used extensively in cancer research and drug development. New IBs need to be established either as useful tools for testing research hypotheses in clinical trials and research studies, or as clinical decision-making tools for use in healthcare, by crossing 'translational gaps' through validation and qualification. Important differences exist between IBs and biospecimen-derived biomarkers and, therefore, the development of IBs requires a tailored 'roadmap'. Recognizing this need, Cancer Research UK (CRUK) and the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) assembled experts to review, debate and summarize the challenges of IB validation and qualification. This consensus group has produced 14 key recommendations for accelerating the clinical translation of IBs, which highlight the role of parallel (rather than sequential) tracks of technical (assay) validation, biological/clinical validation and assessment of cost-effectiveness; the need for IB standardization and accreditation systems; the need to continually revisit IB precision; an alternative framework for biological/clinical validation of IBs; and the essential requirements for multicentre studies to qualify IBs for clinical use.Development of this roadmap received support from Cancer Research UK and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (grant references A/15267, A/16463, A/16464, A/16465, A/16466 and A/18097), the EORTC Cancer Research Fund, and the Innovative Medicines Initiative Joint Undertaking (grant agreement number 115151), resources of which are composed of financial contribution from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) and European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA) companies' in kind contribution