Model-based Purchase Predictions for Large Assortments

Being able to accurately predict what a customer will purchase next is of paramount importance to successful online retailing. In practice, customer purchase history data is readily available to make such predictions, sometimes complemented with customer characteristics. Given the large assortments maintained by online retail- ers, scalability of the prediction method is just as important as its accuracy. We study two classes of models that use such data to predict what a customer will buy next: A novel approach that uses latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), and mixtures of Dirichlet-Multinomials (MDM). A key benefit of a model-based approach is the potential to accommodate observed customer heterogeneity through the inclusion of predictor variables. We show that LDA can be extended in this direction while retaining its scalability. We apply the models to purchase data from an online re- tailer and contrast their predictive performance with that of a collaborative filter and a discrete choice model. Both LDA and MDM outperform the other meth- ods. Moreover, LDA attains performance similar to that of MDM while being far more scalable, rendering it a promising approach to purchase prediction in large assortments

Understanding the hydration process of salts:the impact of a nucleation barrier

The solid-state hydration of salts has gained particular interest within the frame of thermochemical energy storage. In this work, the water vapor pressure–temperature (p–T) phase diagram of the following thermochemical salts was constructed by combining equilibrium and nonequilibrium hydration experiments: CuCl2, K2CO3, MgCl2·4H2O, and LiCl. The hydration of CuCl2 and K2CO3 involves a metastable zone of ca. 10 K, and the induction times preceding hydration are well-described by classical homogeneous nucleation theory. It is further shown for K2CO3 (metastable) and MgCl2·4H2O (not metastable) through solubility calculations that the phase transition is not mediated by bulk dissolution. We conclude that the hydration proceeds as a solid–solid phase transition, mobilized by a wetting layer, where the mobility of the wetting layer increases with increasing vapor pressure. In view of heat storage application, the finding of metastability in thermochemical salts reveals the impact of nucleation and growth processes on the thermochemical performance and demonstrates that practical aspects like the output temperature of a thermochemical salt are defined by its metastable zone width (MZW) rather than its equilibrium phase diagram. Manipulation of the MZW by e.g. prenucleation or heterogeneous nucleation is a potential way to raise the output temperature and power on material level in thermochemical applications

A model predictive control approach for stochastic networked control systems

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Preferences for colorectal cancer screening strategies: a discrete choice experiment

Background:Guidelines underline the role of individual preferences in the selection of a screening test, as insufficient evidence is available to recommend one screening test over another. We conducted a study to determine the preferences of individuals and to predict uptake for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programmes using various screening tests. Methods:A discrete choice experiment (DCE) questionnaire was distributed among naive subjects, yet to be screened, and previously screened subjects, aged 50-75 years. Subjects were asked to choose between scenarios on the basis of faecal occult blood test (FOBT), flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS), total colonoscopy (TC) with various test-specific screening intervals and mortality reductions, and no screening (opt-out). Results:In total, 489 out of 1498 (33%) screening-naïve subjects (52% male; mean age±s.d. 61±7 years) and 545 out of 769 (71%) previously screened subjects (52% male; mean age±s.d. 61±6 years) returned the questionnaire. The type of screening test, screening interval, and risk reduction of CRC-related mortality influenced subjects' preferences (all P<0.05). Screening-naive and previously screened subjects equally preferred 5-yearly FS and 10-yearly TC (P=0.24; P=0.11), but favoured both strategies to annual FOBT screening (all P-values <0.001) if, based on the literature, realistic risk reduction of CRC-related mortality was applied. Screening-naive and previously screened subjects were willing to undergo a 10-yearly TC instead of a 5-yearly FS to obtain an additional risk reduction of CRC-related mortality of 45% (P<0.001). Conclusion:These data provide insight into the extent by which interval and risk reduction of CRC-related mortality affect preferences for CRC screening tests. Assuming realistic test characteristics, subjects in the target population preferred endoscopic screening over FOBT screening, partly, due to the more favourable risk reduction of CRC-related mortality by endoscopy screening. Increasing the knowledge of potential screenees regarding risk reduction by different screening strategies is, therefore, warranted to prevent unrealistic expectations and to optimise informed choice.British Journal of Cancer advance online publication, 2 March 2010; doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6605566 www.bjcancer.com

Search for Neutral Higgs Bosons in e+e- Collisions at sqrt(s) ~189GeV

A search for neutral Higgs bosons has been performed with the OPAL detector at LEP, using approximately 170 pb-1 of e+e- collision data collected at sqrt(s)~189GeV. Searches have been performed for the Standard Model (SM) process e+e- to H0Z0 and the MSSM processes e+e- to H0Z0, A0h0. The searches are sensitive to the b b-bar and tau antitau decay modes of the Higgs bosons, and also to the MSSM decay mode h0 to A0A0. OPAL search results at lower centre-of-mass energies have been incorporated in the limits we set, which are valid at the 95% confidence level. For the SM Higgs boson, we obtain a lower mass bound of 91.0 GeV. In the MSSM, our limits are mh>74.8GeV and mA>76.5GeV, assuming tan(beta)>1, that the mixing of the scalar top quarks is either zero or maximal, and that the soft SUSY-breaking masses are 1 TeV. For the case of zero scalar top mixing, we exclude values of tan(beta) between 0.72 and 2.19.Comment: 38 pages, 15 figures, submitted Euro. Phys. J.

Search for Yukawa Production of a Light Neutral Higgs Boson at LEP

Within a Two-Higgs-Doublet Model (2HDM) a search for a light Higgs boson in the mass range of 4-12 GeV has been performed in the Yukawa process e+e- -> b bbar A/h -> b bbar tau+tau-, using the data collected by the OPAL detector at LEP between 1992 and 1995 in e+e- collisions at about 91 GeV centre-of-mass energy. A likelihood selection is applied to separate background and signal. The number of observed events is in good agreement with the expected background. Within a CP-conserving 2HDM type II model the cross-section for Yukawa production depends on xiAd = |tan beta| and xihd = |sin alpha/cos beta| for the production of the CP-odd A and the CP-even h, respectively, where tan beta is the ratio of the vacuum expectation values of the Higgs doublets and alpha is the mixing angle between the neutral CP-even Higgs bosons. From our data 95% C.L. upper limits are derived for xiAd within the range of 8.5 to 13.6 and for xihd between 8.2 to 13.7, depending on the mass of the Higgs boson, assuming a branching fraction into tau+tau- of 100%. An interpretation of the limits within a 2HDM type II model with Standard Model particle content is given. These results impose constraints on several models that have been proposed to explain the recent BNL measurement of the muon anomalous magnetic moment.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures, Submitted to Euro. Phys. J.

Measurement of the hadronic photon structure function F_{2}^{γ} at LEP2

The hadronic structure function of the photon F_{2}^{γ} (x, Q²) is measured as a function of Bjorken x and of the photon virtuality Q² using deep-inelastic scattering data taken by the OPAL detector at LEP at e⁺e⁻ centre-of-mass energies from 183 to 209 GeV. Previous OPAL measurements of the x dependence of F_{2}^{γ} are extended to an average Q² of 〈Q²〉=780 GeV² using data in the kinematic range 0.15<x<0.98. The Q² evolution of F_{2}^{γ} is studied for 12.1<〈Q²〉<780 GeV² using three ranges of x. As predicted by QCD, the data show positive scaling violations in F_{2}^{γ} with F_{2}^{γ} (Q²)/α = (0.08±0.02⁺⁰·⁰⁵_₀.₀₃) + (0.13±0.01⁺⁰·⁰¹_₀.₀₁) lnQ², where Q² is in GeV², for the central x region 0.10–0.60. Several parameterisations of F_{2}^{γ} are in qualitative agreement with the measurements whereas the quark-parton model prediction fails to describe the data

Measurement of triple gauge boson couplings from WW production at LEP energies up to 189 GeV

A measurement of triple gauge boson couplings is presented, based on W-pair data recorded by the OPAL detector at LEP during 1998 at a centre-of-mass energy of 189 GeV with an integrated luminosity of 183 pb^-1. After combining with our previous measurements at centre-of-mass energies of 161-183 GeV we obtain k_g=0.97 +0.20 -0.16, g_1^z=0.991 +0.060 -0.057 and lambda_g=-0.110 +0.058 -0.055, where the errors include both statistical and systematic uncertainties and each coupling is determined by setting the other two couplings to their SM values. These results are consistent with the Standard Model expectations.Comment: 28 pages, 8 figures, submitted to Eur. Phys. J.

Measurement of triple gauge boson couplings from W⁺W⁻ production at LEP energies up to 189 GeV

A measurement of triple gauge boson couplings is presented, based on W-pair data recorded by the OPAL detector at LEP during 1998 at a centre-of-mass energy of 189 GeV with an integrated luminosity of 183 pb⁻¹. After combining with our previous measurements at centre-of-mass energies of 161–183 GeV we obtain κ = 0.97_{-0.16}^{+0.20}, g_{1}^{z} = 0.991_{-0.057}^{+0.060} and λ = -0.110_{-0.055}^{+0.058}, where the errors include both statistical and systematic uncertainties and each coupling is determined by setting the other two couplings to their Standard Model values. These results are consistent with the Standard Model expectations

Determination of alpha_s using Jet Rates at LEP with the OPAL detector

Hadronic events produced in e+e- collisions by the LEP collider and recorded by the OPAL detector were used to form distributions based on the number of reconstructed jets. The data were collected between 1995 and 2000 and correspond to energies of 91 GeV, 130-136 GeV and 161-209 GeV. The jet rates were determined using four different jet-finding algorithms (Cone, JADE, Durham and Cambridge). The differential two-jet rate and the average jet rate with the Durham and Cambridge algorithms were used to measure alpha(s) in the LEP energy range by fitting an expression in which order alpah_2s calculations were matched to a NLLA prediction and fitted to the data. Combining the measurements at different centre-of-mass energies, the value of alpha_s (Mz) was determined to be alpha(s)(Mz)=0.1177+-0.0006(stat.)+-0.0012$(expt.)+-0.0010(had.)+-0.0032(theo.) \.Comment: 40 pages, 17 figures, Submitted to Euro. Phys. J.