A Markov Model on China’s Export Cycles: Regime Division and Regime Switching

Based on Hamilton’ Markov regime-switching model applied to postwar U.S. business cycle, the paper uses Chinese export data from January 1999 to November 2010 to describe and investigate the dynamic growth path of China’s export cycles. The empirical results show that the growth path of China’s export can be classified as long-term expansion regime and short-term recession regime, which means the growth path of China’s export may experience a shift of regime. The global economic situation, especially the 1997 Asian financial crisis and 2008 global financial crisis, and Chinese macroeconomic policy during these periods may explain the move of regime. Chinese economy needs to shift from export-oriented economic growth to more reliance on indigenous innovation of firms and domestic demand-pulled growth, which maybe not only the result of the 2008 global financial crisis, but also reflects the need for continual growth of Chinese economy in the future.Key words: Export cycles; Markov regime-switching model; Smoothing probabilitiesRésumé: Basé sur Hamilton à changement de modèle du régime Markov appliqué à la conjoncture d'après-guerre américain, l'étude utilise les données des exportations 1chinoises de Janvier 1999 à Novembre 2010 à décrire et à enquêter sur le chemin de la croissance dynamique des cycles de l'exportation de la Chine. Les résultats empiriques montrent que le chemin de la croissance des exportations chinoises peuvent être classés comme régime de l'expansion à long terme et le régime de la récession à court terme, ce qui signifie que le chemin de la croissance des exportations de la Chine, peuvent constater un changement de régime. La situation économique mondiale, en particulier la crise financière asiatique 1997 et 2008 la crise financière mondiale, et les Chinois de la politique macroéconomique durant ces périodes peut expliquer le passage du régime. L'économie chinoise a besoin de passer d'exportation de la croissance économique à s'appuyer davantage sur l'innovation des entreprises et des indigènes par la demande intérieure tirée de croissance, qui peut-être pas seulement le résultat de l'exercice 2008 la crise financière mondiale, mais reflète également la nécessité d'une croissance continue de l'économie chinoise dans le futur.Mots clés: Les Cycles d'exportation; Le Changement de modèle du régime Markov; Les probabilités de lissag

Isolation and characterization of a novel (S)-canadine synthase gene from Coptis chinensis

Background: Berberine acts primarily as an important active ingredient in Coptis chinensis and has been traditionally applied in clinical treatment. Nevertheless, little information has been released about C. chinensis, as far as functional genes and biosynthetic pathway of berberine are concerned. Here, we isolated a novel (S)-canadine synthase gene (designated as CAS-1) from C. chinensis by using RT-PCR and RACE techniques. Results: Bioinformatics analysis showed that the cDNA is 1942 bp in length with a complete open reading frame (ORF) of 1476 bp, and the ORF encodes a polypeptide of 491 amino acids with a calculated molecular mass of 55.29 kDa and a pI value of 8.92. Real-time quantitative PCR analysis showed that CcCAS-1 was constitutively expressed in leaf, petiole and rhizome tissues, especially in the leaves of C. chinensis. However, the results of berberine content in different tissues by high-performance liquid chromatography with photodiode array detection (HPLC-DAD)method showed that the leaves and the petiole tissues have similar content of berberine. Conclusions: We found that the berberine content in the rhizomewas seven times (more or less) than that in the leaves and the petioles. In addition, the full length coding sequence of CcCAS-1 was inserted into pET-32a andwas successfully expressed in Escherichia coli , laying a solid foundation for protein purification, activity assay and multi-clonal antibody preparation. Together, our data suggest that CcCAS-1 is a novel heme-thiolate enzyme essential for berberine biosynthesis in C. chinensis

Legume Lectin FRIL Preserves Neural Progenitor Cells in Suspension Culture In Vitro

In vitro maintenance of stem cells is crucial for many clinical applications. Stem cell preservation factor FRIL (Flt3 receptor-interacting lectin) is a plant lectin extracted from Dolichos Lablab and has been found preserve hematopoietic stem cells in vitro for a month in our previous studies. To investigate whether FRIL can preserve neural progenitor cells (NPCs), it was supplemented into serum-free suspension culture media. FRIL made NPC grow slowly, induced cell adhesion, and delayed neurospheres formation. However, FRIL did not initiate NPC differentiation according to immunofluorescence and semiquantitive RT-PCR results. In conclusion, FRIL could also preserve neural progenitor cells in vitro by inhibiting both cell proliferation and differentiation

Robust Multimodal Failure Detection for Microservice Systems

Proactive failure detection of instances is vitally essential to microservice systems because an instance failure can propagate to the whole system and degrade the system's performance. Over the years, many single-modal (i.e., metrics, logs, or traces) data-based nomaly detection methods have been proposed. However, they tend to miss a large number of failures and generate numerous false alarms because they ignore the correlation of multimodal data. In this work, we propose AnoFusion, an unsupervised failure detection approach, to proactively detect instance failures through multimodal data for microservice systems. It applies a Graph Transformer Network (GTN) to learn the correlation of the heterogeneous multimodal data and integrates a Graph Attention Network (GAT) with Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) to address the challenges introduced by dynamically changing multimodal data. We evaluate the performance of AnoFusion through two datasets, demonstrating that it achieves the F1-score of 0.857 and 0.922, respectively, outperforming the state-of-the-art failure detection approaches

Potential of Core-Collapse Supernova Neutrino Detection at JUNO

JUNO is an underground neutrino observatory under construction in Jiangmen, China. It uses 20kton liquid scintillator as target, which enables it to detect supernova burst neutrinos of a large statistics for the next galactic core-collapse supernova (CCSN) and also pre-supernova neutrinos from the nearby CCSN progenitors. All flavors of supernova burst neutrinos can be detected by JUNO via several interaction channels, including inverse beta decay, elastic scattering on electron and proton, interactions on C12 nuclei, etc. This retains the possibility for JUNO to reconstruct the energy spectra of supernova burst neutrinos of all flavors. The real time monitoring systems based on FPGA and DAQ are under development in JUNO, which allow prompt alert and trigger-less data acquisition of CCSN events. The alert performances of both monitoring systems have been thoroughly studied using simulations. Moreover, once a CCSN is tagged, the system can give fast characterizations, such as directionality and light curve

Detection of the Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background with JUNO

As an underground multi-purpose neutrino detector with 20 kton liquid scintillator, Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is competitive with and complementary to the water-Cherenkov detectors on the search for the diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB). Typical supernova models predict 2-4 events per year within the optimal observation window in the JUNO detector. The dominant background is from the neutral-current (NC) interaction of atmospheric neutrinos with 12C nuclei, which surpasses the DSNB by more than one order of magnitude. We evaluated the systematic uncertainty of NC background from the spread of a variety of data-driven models and further developed a method to determine NC background within 15\% with {\it{in}} {\it{situ}} measurements after ten years of running. Besides, the NC-like backgrounds can be effectively suppressed by the intrinsic pulse-shape discrimination (PSD) capabilities of liquid scintillators. In this talk, I will present in detail the improvements on NC background uncertainty evaluation, PSD discriminator development, and finally, the potential of DSNB sensitivity in JUNO

Real-time Monitoring for the Next Core-Collapse Supernova in JUNO

Core-collapse supernova (CCSN) is one of the most energetic astrophysical events in the Universe. The early and prompt detection of neutrinos before (pre-SN) and during the SN burst is a unique opportunity to realize the multi-messenger observation of the CCSN events. In this work, we describe the monitoring concept and present the sensitivity of the system to the pre-SN and SN neutrinos at the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), which is a 20 kton liquid scintillator detector under construction in South China. The real-time monitoring system is designed with both the prompt monitors on the electronic board and online monitors at the data acquisition stage, in order to ensure both the alert speed and alert coverage of progenitor stars. By assuming a false alert rate of 1 per year, this monitoring system can be sensitive to the pre-SN neutrinos up to the distance of about 1.6 (0.9) kpc and SN neutrinos up to about 370 (360) kpc for a progenitor mass of 30$M_{\odot}$ for the case of normal (inverted) mass ordering. The pointing ability of the CCSN is evaluated by using the accumulated event anisotropy of the inverse beta decay interactions from pre-SN or SN neutrinos, which, along with the early alert, can play important roles for the followup multi-messenger observations of the next Galactic or nearby extragalactic CCSN.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figure

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat

Correction to: Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat