A Theory of Dynamic Tariff and Quota Retaliation

This paper characterizes, under the most general conditions to date, the steady-state equilibria of a symmetric, two-country trade model in which countries move in alternating-move, dynamic either tariffsetting or quota-setting games in Markov Perfect strategies, and compares the respective equilibrium level of tariffs and quotas with the corresponding pairs in the equilibria of static games. Our results imply that the alleged non-equivalence of the outcomes of tariff-retaliation (neither free trade nor autarky) and quota-retaliation (asymptotic autarky) games in the literature depends crucially on complete myopia, and can be dismissed altogether once dynamic considerations are introduced in an operationally significant manner

A Theory of Dynamic Tariff and Quota Retaliation

This paper characterizes, under the most general conditions to date, the steady-state equilibria of a symmetric, two-country trade model in which countries move in alternating-move, dynamic either tariffsetting or quota-setting games in Markov Perfect strategies, and compares the respective equilibrium level of tariffs and quotas with the corresponding pairs in the equilibria of static games. Our results imply that the alleged non-equivalence of the outcomes of tariff-retaliation (neither free trade nor autarky) and quota-retaliation (asymptotic autarky) games in the literature depends crucially on complete myopia, and can be dismissed altogether once dynamic considerations are introduced in an operationally significant manner.Foreign trade policy; Tariff; Quota; Retaliation; Dynamic Game; Markov perfect equilibrium; Supermodular games

Disease Ecology, Biodiversity, and the Latitudinal Gradient in Income

While most of the world is thought to be on long-term economic growth paths, more than one-sixth of the world is roughly as poor today as their ancestors were hundreds of years ago. The majority of the extremely poor live in the tropics. The latitudinal gradient in income is highly suggestive of underlying biophysical drivers, of which disease conditions are an especially salient example. However, conclusions have been confounded by the simultaneous causality between income and disease, in addition to potentially spurious relationships. We use a simultaneous equations model to estimate the relative effects of vector-borne and parasitic diseases (VBPDs) and income on each other, controlling for other factors. Our statistical model indicates that VBPDs have systematically affected economic development, evident in contemporary levels of per capita income. The burden of VBDPs is, in turn, determined by underlying ecological conditions. In particular, the model predicts it to rise as biodiversity falls. Through these positive effects on human health, the model thus identifies measurable economic benefits of biodiversity

Poverty, Disease, and the Ecology of Complex Systems

Understanding why some human populations remain persistently poor remains a significant challenge for both the social and natural sciences. The extremely poor are generally reliant on their immediate natural resource base for subsistence and suffer high rates of mortality due to parasitic and infectious diseases. Economists have developed a range of models to explain persistent poverty, often characterized as poverty traps, but these rarely account for complex biophysical processes. In this Essay, we argue that by coupling insights from ecology and economics, we can begin to model and understand the complex dynamics that underlie the generation and maintenance of poverty traps, which can then be used to inform analyses and possible intervention policies. To illustrate the utility of this approach, we present a simple coupled model of infectious diseases and economic growth, where poverty traps emerge from nonlinear relationships determined by the number of pathogens in the system. These nonlinearities are comparable to those often incorporated into poverty trap models in the economics literature, but, importantly, here the mechanism is anchored in core ecological principles. Coupled models of this sort could be usefully developed in many economically important biophysical systems—such as agriculture, fisheries, nutrition, and land use change—to serve as foundations for deeper explorations of how fundamental ecological processes influence structural poverty and economic development

The Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer Survey of OVI Absorption in the Disk of the Milky Way

To probe the distribution and physical characteristics of interstellar gas at temperatures T ~ 3e5 K in the disk of the Milky Way, we have used the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) to observe absorption lines of OVI toward 148 early-type stars situated at distances 1 kpc. After subtracting off a mild excess of OVI arising from the Local Bubble, combining our new results with earlier surveys of OVI, and eliminating stars that show conspicuous localized X-ray emission, we find an average OVI mid-plane density n_0 = 1.3e-8 cm^-3. The density decreases away from the plane of the Galaxy in a way that is consistent with an exponential scale height of 3.2 kpc at negative latitudes or 4.6 kpc at positive latitudes. Average volume densities of OVI along different sight lines exhibit a dispersion of about 0.26 dex, irrespective of the distances to the target stars. This indicates that OVI does not arise in randomly situated clouds of a fixed size and density, but instead is distributed in regions that have a very broad range of column densities, with the more strongly absorbing clouds having a lower space density. Line widths and centroid velocities are much larger than those expected from differential Galactic rotation, but they are nevertheless correlated with distance and N(OVI), which reinforces our picture of a diverse population of hot plasma regions that are ubiquitous over the entire Galactic disk. The velocity extremes of the OVI profiles show a loose correlation with those of very strong lines of less ionized species, supporting a picture of a turbulent, multiphase medium churned by shock-heated gas from multiple supernova explosions.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJS. Preprint with full resolution images and all 148 spectra available at http://www.astro.princeton.edu/~dvb/o

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project: Key Results

We present the final data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping (SDSS-RM) project, a precursor to the SDSS-V Black Hole Mapper Reverberation Mapping program. This data set includes 11-year photometric and 7-year spectroscopic light curves for 849 broad-line quasars over a redshift range of 0.1<z<4.5 and a luminosity range of Lbol=1E44-47.5 erg/s, along with spectral and variability measurements. We report 23, 81, 125, and 110 reverberation mapping lags (relative to optical continuum variability) for broad Halpha, Hbeta, MgII and CIV using the SDSS-RM sample, spanning much of the luminosity and redshift ranges of the sample. Using 30 low-redshift RM AGNs with dynamical-modeling black hole masses, we derive a new estimate of the average virial factor of =0.62+-0.07 for the line dispersion measured from the RMS spectrum. The intrinsic scatter of individual virial factors is 0.31+-0.07 dex, indicating a factor of two systematic uncertainty in RM black hole masses. Our lag measurements reveal significant R-L relations for Hbeta and MgII at high redshift, consistent with the latest measurements based on heterogeneous samples. While we are unable to robustly constrain the slope of the R-L relation for CIV given the limited dynamical range in luminosity, we found substantially larger scatter in CIV lags at fixed L1350. Using the SDSS-RM lag sample, we derive improved single-epoch (SE) mass recipes for Hbeta, MgII and CIV, which are consistent with their respective RM masses as well as between the SE recipes from two different lines, over the luminosity range probed by our sample. The new Hbeta and MgII recipes are approximately unbiased estimators at given RM masses, but there are systematic biases in the CIV recipe. The intrinsic scatter of SE masses around RM masses is ~0.45 dex for Hbeta and MgII, increasing to ~0.58 dex for CIV.Comment: 33 pages. Data products available at ftp://quasar.astro.illinois.edu/public/sdssrm/final_result

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead