Small-area study of the incidence of neoplasms of the brain and central nervous system among adults in the West Midlands region, 1974-86. Small Area Health Statistics Unit.

This small-area study of incidence of cancers of the brain and central nervous system found evidence of trend (P = 0.02) of cancer risk with deprivation (8% higher risk in affluent areas), but no significant association with urban-rural status. Results were not indicative of a strong geographically determined risk at small-area level

Survey of prenatal screening policies in Europe for structural malformations and chromosome anomalies, and their impact on detection and termination rates for neural tube defects and Down's syndrome

OBJECTIVE: To 'map' the current (2004) state of prenatal screening in Europe. DESIGN: (i) Survey of country policies and (ii) analysis of data from EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) population-based congenital anomaly registers. SETTING: Europe. POPULATION: Survey of prenatal screening policies in 18 countries and 1.13 million births in 12 countries in 2002-04. METHODS: (i) Questionnaire on national screening policies and termination of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA) laws in 2004. (ii) Analysis of data on prenatal detection and termination for Down's syndrome and neural tube defects (NTDs) using the EUROCAT database. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Existence of national prenatal screening policies, legal gestation limit for TOPFA, prenatal detection and termination rates for Down's syndrome and NTD. RESULTS: Ten of the 18 countries had a national country-wide policy for Down's syndrome screening and 14/18 for structural anomaly scanning. Sixty-eight percent of Down's syndrome cases (range 0-95%) were detected prenatally, of which 88% resulted in termination of pregnancy. Eighty-eight percent (range 25-94%) of cases of NTD were prenatally detected, of which 88% resulted in termination. Countries with a first-trimester screening policy had the highest proportion of prenatally diagnosed Down's syndrome cases. Countries with no official national Down's syndrome screening or structural anomaly scan policy had the lowest proportion of prenatally diagnosed Down's syndrome and NTD cases. Six of the 18 countries had a legal gestational age limit for TOPFA, and in two countries, termination of pregnancy was illegal at any gestation. CONCLUSIONS: There are large differences in screening policies between countries in Europe. These, as well as organisational and cultural factors, are associated with wide country variation in prenatal detection rates for Down's syndrome and NTD

Accounting for Underreporting in Mathematical Modeling of Transmission and Control of COVID-19 in Iran

Iran has been the country most affected by the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in the Middle East. With a relatively high case fatality ratio and limited testing capacity, the number of confirmed cases reported is suspected to suffer from significant underreporting. Therefore, understanding the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and assessing the effectiveness of the interventions that have taken place in Iran while accounting for the uncertain level of underreporting is of critical importance. In this paper, we developed a compartmental transmission model to estimate the time-dependent effective reproduction number since the beginning of the outbreak in Iran. We associate the variations in the effective reproduction number with a timeline of interventions and national events. The estimation method accounts for the underreporting due to low case ascertainment. Our estimates of the effective reproduction number ranged from 0.66 to 1.73 between February and April 2020, with a median of 1.16. We estimate a reduction in the effective reproduction number during this period, from 1.73 (95% CI 1.60–1.87) on 1 March 2020 to 0.69 (95% CI 0.68–0.70) on 15 April 2020, due to various non-pharmaceutical interventions. The series of non-pharmaceutical interventions and the public compliance that took place in Iran are found to be effective in slowing down the speed of the spread of COVID-19. However, we argue that if the impact of underreporting is overlooked, the estimated transmission and control dynamics could mislead public health decisions, policy makers, and the general public

Residential mobility during pregnancy in the north of England

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Many epidemiological studies assign exposure to an individual's residence at a single time point, such as birth or death. This approach makes no allowance for migration and may result in exposure error, leading to reduced study power and biased risk estimates. Pregnancy outcomes are less susceptible to this bias, however data from North American populations indicate that pregnant women are a highly mobile group. We assessed mobility in pregnant women in the north of England using data from the Northern Congenital Abnormality Survey (NorCAS).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were extracted from NorCAS for 1985 to 2003. Eligible cases had a gestational age at delivery of ≥ 24 weeks (a viable delivery) (n = 11 559). We assessed mobility between booking appointment (average gestational age 13 weeks) and delivery for pregnancies where the address at booking appointment and delivery were known. The impacts on mobility of maternal age and area-level socio-economic indicators were explored using standard descriptive statistics. A sensitivity analysis and a small validation exercise were undertaken to assess the impact of missing data on the estimate of mobility.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Out of 7 919 eligible cases for whom addresses at booking and delivery were known, 705 (8.9% (95% CI 8.3 - 9.5)) moved between booking and delivery; the mean and median moving distance was 9.7 and 1.4 km respectively. Movers were significantly younger (25.4 versus 27.3 years, p < 0.01) and lived in more deprived areas (index of multiple deprivation score 38.3 versus 33.7, p < 0.01) than non movers.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Mobility in the north of England (9%) is considerably lower than that reported in North America and the only other study from the UK (23%). Consistent with other studies, mobility was related to maternal age and socio-economic status, and the majority of moves were over a relatively short distance. Although this population appears relatively stable, the mobility we have observed may still introduce misclassification or error into an exposure assessment relying solely on postcode at delivery, and migration should still therefore be considered a potential source of bias in future studies.</p

Dynamical evolution of titanium, strontium, and yttrium spots on the surface of the HgMn star HD 11753

Aims. We gathered about 100 high-resolution spectra of three typical HgMn (mercury-manganese) stars, HD 11753, HD 53244, and HD 221507, to search for slowly pulsating B-like pulsations and surface inhomogeneous distribution of various chemical elements. Methods. Classical frequency analysis methods were used to detect line profile variability and to determine the variation period. Doppler imaging reconstruction was performed to obtain abundance maps of chemical elements on the stellar surface. Results. For HD 11753, which is the star with the most pronounced variability, distinct spectral line profile changes were detected for Ti, Sr, Y, Zr, and Hg, whereas for HD 53244 and HD 221507 the most variable line profiles belong to the elements Hg and Y, respectively. We derived rotation periods for all three stars from the variations of radial velocities and equivalent widths of spectral lines belonging to inhomogeneously distributed elements: P_rot (HD 11753)=9.54 d, P_rot (HD 53244)=6.16 d, and P_rot (HD 221507)=1.93 d. For HD 11753 the Doppler imaging technique was applied to derive the distribution of the most variable elements Ti, Sr, and Y using two datasets separated by ~65 days. Results of Doppler imaging reconstruction revealed noticeable changes in the surface distributions of TiII, SrII, and YII between the datasets, indicating the hitherto not well understood physical processes in stars with radiative envelopes that cause a rather fast dynamical chemical spot evolution.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics, 6 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables

The modelery: a collaborative web based repository

Software development processes are known to produce a large set of artifacts such as models, code and documentation. Keeping track of these artifacts without supporting tools is not easy, and making them available to others can be even harder. Standard version control systems are not able to solve this issue. More than keeping track of versions, a system to help organize and make artifacts available in meaningful ways is needed. In this paper we review a number of alternative systems, and present the requirements and the implementation of a collaborative web repository which we developed to solve this issue.Project LATiCES: Languages And Tools for Critical rEal-time Systems (Ref. NORTE-07-0124-FEDER-000062) is financed by the North Portugal Regional Operational Programme (ON.2 - O Novo Norte), under the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF), through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), and by national funds, through the Portuguese funding agency, Fundacão para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT)

Geographic variation and localised clustering of congenital anomalies in Great Britain

Background: Environmental pollution as a cause of congenital anomalies is sometimes suspected because of clustering of anomalies in areas of higher exposure. This highlights questions around spatial heterogeneity (clustering) in congenital anomaly rates. If spatial variation is endemic, then any one specific cluster is less remarkable, though the presence of uncontrolled geographically clustered risk factors is suggested. If rates are relatively homogeneous across space other than around specific hazards, then evidence for these hazards causing the clusters is strengthened. We sought to estimate the extent of spatial heterogeneity in congenital anomaly rates in the United Kingdom. Methods: The study population covered about one million births from five registers in Britain from 1991–1999. We estimated heterogeneity across four geographical levels: register area, hospital catchment, electoral ward, and enumeration district, using a negative binomial regression model. We also sought clusters using a circular scan statistic. Results: Congenital anomaly rates clearly varied across register areas and hospital catchments (p 0.2). Adjusting for socioeconomic deprivation and maternal age made little difference to the extent of geographical variation for most congenital anomaly subtypes. The two most significant circular clusters (of four ano-rectal atresias and six congenital heart diseases) contained two or more siblings. Conclusion: The variation in rates between registers and hospital catchment area may have resulted in part from differences in case ascertainment, and this should be taken into account in geographical epidemiological studies of environmental exposures. The absence of evidence for variation below this level should be interpreted cautiously in view of the low power of general heterogeneity tests. Nevertheless, the data suggest that strong localised clusters in congenital anomalies are uncommon, so clusters around specific putative environmental hazards are remarkable when observed. Negative binomial models applied at successive hierarchical levels provide an approach of intermediate complexity to characterising geographical heterogeneity

Toward the effective surveillance of hypospadias.

Concern about apparent increases in the prevalence of hypospadias--a congenital male reproductive-tract abnormality--in the 1960s to 1980s and the possible connection to increasing exposures to endocrine-disrupting chemicals have underlined the importance of effective surveillance of hypospadias prevalence in the population. We report here the prevalence of hypospadias from 1980 to 1999 in 20 regions of Europe with EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) population-based congenital anomaly registers, 14 of which implemented a guideline to exclude glanular hypospadias. We also report data from the England and Wales National Congenital Anomaly System (NCAS). Our results do not suggest a continuation of rising trends of hypospadias prevalence in Europe. However, a survey of the registers and a special validation study conducted for the years 1994-1996 in nine EUROCAT registers as well as NCAS identified a clear need for a change in the guidelines for registration of hypospadias. We recommend that all hypospadias be included in surveillance, but that information from surgeons be obtained to verify location of the meatus, and whether surgery was performed, in order to interpret trends. Investing resources in repeated special surveys may be more cost-effective than continuous population surveillance. We conclude that it is doubtful whether we have had the systems in place worldwide for the effective surveillance of hypospadias in relation to exposure to potential endocrine-disrupting chemicals

Recent trends in molecular diagnostics of yeast infections : from PCR to NGS

The incidence of opportunistic yeast infections in humans has been increasing over recent years. These infections are difficult to treat and diagnose, in part due to the large number and broad diversity of species that can underlie the infection. In addition, resistance to one or several antifungal drugs in infecting strains is increasingly being reported, severely limiting therapeutic options and showcasing the need for rapid detection of the infecting agent and its drug susceptibility profile. Current methods for species and resistance identification lack satisfactory sensitivity and specificity, and often require prior culturing of the infecting agent, which delays diagnosis. Recently developed high-throughput technologies such as next generation sequencing or proteomics are opening completely new avenues for more sensitive, accurate and fast diagnosis of yeast pathogens. These approaches are the focus of intensive research, but translation into the clinics requires overcoming important challenges. In this review, we provide an overview of existing and recently emerged approaches that can be used in the identification of yeast pathogens and their drug resistance profiles. Throughout the text we highlight the advantages and disadvantages of each methodology and discuss the most promising developments in their path from bench to bedside