A probabilistic peridynamic framework with an application to the study of the statistical size effect

This is the final version. Available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record. Data availability: No data was used for the research described in the article.The high computational expense of peridynamic models remains a major limitation, hindering ‘outer-loop’ applications that require a large number of simulations, for example, uncertainty quantification. This contribution presents a framework that makes such computations feasible. By employing a Multilevel Monte Carlo framework, where the majority of simulations are performed using a coarse mesh, and performing relatively few simulations using a fine mesh, a significant reduction in computational cost can be realised, and statistics of structural failure can be estimated. The maximum observed speed-up factor is 16 when compared to a standard Monte Carlo estimator, thus enabling the efficient forward propagation of uncertain parameters in a computationally expensive peridynamic model. Furthermore, the multilevel method provides an estimate of both the discretisation error and sampling error, thereby improving confidence in numerical predictions. The performance of the approach is demonstrated through an examination of the statistical size effect in quasi-brittle materials.Turing Fellowshi

Mapping midwifery and obstetric units in England

OBJECTIVE: to describe the configuration of midwifery units, both alongside&free-standing, and obstetric units in England. DESIGN: national survey amongst Heads of Midwifery in English Maternity Services SETTING: National Health Service (NHS) in England PARTICIPANTS: English Maternity Services Measurements descriptive statistics of Alongside Midwifery Units and Free-standing Midwifery Units and Obstetric Units and their annual births/year in English Maternity Services FINDINGS: alongside midwifery units have nearly doubled since 2010 (n = 53-97); free-standing midwifery units have increased slightly (n = 58-61). There has been a significant reduction in maternity services without either an alongside or free-standing midwifery unit (75-32). The percentage of all births in midwifery units has trebled, now representing 14% of all births in England. This masks significant differences in percentage of all births in midwifery units between different maternity services with a spread of 4% to 31%. KEY CONCLUSIONS: In some areas of England, women have no access to a local midwifery unit, despite the National Institute for Health&Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommending them as an important place of birth option for low risk women. The numbers of midwifery units have increased significantly in England since 2010 but this growth is almost exclusively in alongside midwifery units. The percentage of women giving birth in midwifery units varies significantly between maternity services suggesting that many midwifery units are underutilised. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Both the availability and utilisation of midwifery units in England could be improved

Radiotherapy following breast-conserving surgery for screen-detected ductal carcinoma in situ: indications and utilisation in the UK. Interim findings from the Sloane Project

Use of radiotherapy (RT) after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) varies according to country, precedent and prejudice. Results from a preliminary analysis of the data available within the UK Sloane Project can be appreciated in the context of the uncertainty concerning the selection of adjuvant RT following BCS for DCIS. There was a marked geographical variation in the use of RT within the United Kingdom. However, overall, patients with DCIS treated with BCS were significantly more likely to have RT planned (and given) if they had large (⩾15 mm), intermediate or high-grade tumours or if central comedo-type necrosis was present. Unexpectedly, margin width did not appear to have a significant effect on the decision-making process. However, the Van Nuys Prognostic Index did significantly affect the chances of getting planned RT in the univariate analysis, suggesting that clinicians may be starting to use this scoring system in routine practice to assist in decision making

Adjuvant zoledronic acid reduces fractures in breast cancer patients; an AZURE (BIG 01/04) study

The fracture impact of adjuvant bisphosphonates in breast cancer is not defined with most trials reporting changes in bone mineral density as a surrogate. The AZURE trial (ISRCTN79831382) evaluated the impact of adjuvant zoledronic acid (ZOL) on fractures. The AZURE trial is an academic, multi-centre, randomised phase III study evaluating the addition of ZOL 4 mg to standard therapy (neo/adjuvant chemotherapy and/or endocrine therapy) for 5 years (administered by intravenous (iv) infusion every 3–4 weeks for 6 doses, then 3 monthly × 8 and 6 monthly × 5) in patients with stage II/III early breast cancer. Fracture data collected as part of skeletal-related adverse event reporting were analysed after a median of 84.2 months of follow-up and 966 disease-free survival (DFS) events. We assessed number of fractures, time- to-first fracture and the incidence of fractures before and after disease recurrence. Two hundred forty-four patients reported ≥1 fracture, 140 (8.3%) in the control arm (171 fractures) and 104 (6.2%) in the ZOL arm (120 fractures). Of the 291 fractures reported, 207 fractures occurred in the absence of recurrence (control 111, ZOL 96), 80 after recurrence (control 59, ZOL 21). The 5-year fracture rate was reduced from 5.9% (95%CI 4.8, 7.1%; control) to 3.8% (95%CI 2.9, 4.7%) with ZOL. ZOL significantly increased time-to-first fracture (HR 0.69, 95%CI 0.53–0.90; P = 0.0053) but the majority of fracture prevention benefit occurred after a DFS event (HR 0.3; 95%CI 0.17, 0.53; P < 0.001). Fracture benefits from ZOL were similar across menopausal sub-groups. In conclusion, adjuvant ZOL reduced the risk of clinical fractures, the majority of this protection occurred after disease recurrence

Long-Term Follow-Up of the Intergroup Exemestane Study

Purpose: The Intergroup Exemestane Study, an investigator-led study of 4,724 postmenopausal patients with early breast cancer (clinical trial information: ISRCTN11883920), has previously demonstrated that a switch from adjuvant endocrine therapy after 2 to 3 years of tamoxifen to exemestane was associated with clinically relevant improvements in efficacy. Here, we report the final efficacy analyses of this cohort. Patients and Methods: Patients who remained disease free after 2 to 3 years of adjuvant tamoxifen were randomly assigned to continue tamoxifen or switch to exemestane to complete a total of 5 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy. Given the large number of non–breast cancer–related deaths now reported, breast cancer–free survival (BCFS), with censorship of intercurrent deaths, was the primary survival end point of interest. Analyses focus on patients with estrogen receptor-positive or unknown tumors (n = 4,599). Results: At the time of the data snapshot, median follow-up was 120 months. In the population that was estrogen receptor positive or had unknown estrogen receptor status, 1,111 BCFS events were observed with 508 (22.1%) of 2,294 patients in the exemestane group and 603 (26.2%) of 2,305 patients in the tamoxifen group. The data corresponded to an absolute difference (between exemestane and tamoxifen) at 10 years of 4.0% (95% CI, 1.2% to 6.7%), and the hazard ratio (HR) of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.92) favored exemestane. This difference remained in multivariable analysis that was adjusted for nodal status, prior use of hormone replacement therapy, and prior chemotherapy (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.90; P < .001). A modest improvement in overall survival was seen with exemestane; the absolute difference (between exemestane and tamoxifen) at 10 years in the population that was estrogen receptor positive or had unknown estrogen receptor status was 2.1% (95% CI, −0.5% to 4.6%), and the HR was 0.89 (95% CI, 0.78 to 1.01; P = .08). For the intention-to-treat population, the absolute difference was 1.6% (95% CI, −0.9% to 4.1%); the HR was 0.91 (95% CI, 0.80 to 1.03, P = .15). No statistically significant difference was observed in the proportion of patients who reported a fracture event in the post-treatment period. Conclusion: The Intergroup Exemestane Study and contemporaneous studies have established that a strategy of switching to an aromatase inhibitor after 2 to 3 years of tamoxifen can lead to sustained benefits in terms of reduction of disease recurrence and breast cancer mortality

Prognostic factors in metaplastic carcinoma of the breast: A multi-institutional study

Background: Metaplastic breast carcinoma (MBC) is a rare type of breast cancer that has basal-like characteristics and is perceived to have poorer prognosis when compared with conventional no specific type/ductal carcinomas (ductal/NST). However, current data on MBC are largely derived from small case series or population-based reports. This study aimed to assess the clinicopathological features and outcome of MBC identified through an international multicentre collaboration. Methods: A large international multicentre series of MBC (no=405) with histological confirmation and follow-up information has been included in this study. The prognostic value of different variables and outcome has been assessed and compared with grade, nodal status and ER/HER2 receptor-matched ductal/NST breast carcinoma. Results: The outcome of MBC diagnosed in Asian countries was more favourable than those in Western countries. The outcome of MBC is not different from matched ductal/NST carcinoma but the performance of the established prognostic variables in MBC is different. Lymph node stage, lymphovascular invasion and histologic subtype are associated with outcome but tumour size and grade are not. Chemotherapy was associated with longer survival, although this effect was limited to early-stage disease. In this study no association between radiotherapy and outcome was identified. Multivariate analysis of MBC shows that histologic subtype is an independent prognostic feature. Conclusions: This study suggests that MBC is a heterogeneous disease. Although the outcome of MBC is not different to matched conventional ductal/NST breast carcinoma, its behaviour is dependent on the particular subtype with spindle cell carcinoma in particular has an aggressive biological behaviour. Management of patients with MBC should be based on validated prognostic variables