Linking the anomaly initialization approach to the mapping paradigm: a proof-of-concept study

Seasonal-to-decadal predictions are initialized using observations of the present climatic state in full field initialization (FFI). Such model integrations undergo a drift toward the model attractor due to model deficiencies that incur a bias in the model. The anomaly initialization (AI) approach reduces the drift by adding an estimate of the bias onto the observations at the expense of a larger initial error. In this study FFI is associated with the fidelity paradigm, and AI is associated with an instance of the mapping paradigm, in which the initial conditions are mapped onto the imperfect model attractor by adding a fixed error term; the mapped state on the model attractor should correspond to the nature state. Two diagnosis tools assess how well AI conforms to its own paradigm under various circumstances of model error: the degree of approximation of the model attractor is measured by calculating the overlap of the AI initial conditions PDF with the model PDF; and the sensitivity to random error in the initial conditions reveals how well the selected initial conditions on the model attractor correspond to the nature states. As a useful reference, the initial conditions of FFI are subjected to the same analysis. Conducting hindcast experiments using a hierarchy of low-order coupled climate models, it is shown that the initial conditions generated using AI approximate the model attractor only under certain conditions: differences in higher-than-first-order moments between the model and nature PDFs must be negligible. Where such conditions fail, FFI is likely to perform better

Full-field and anomaly initialization using a low-order climate model: a comparison and proposals for advanced formulations

Initialization techniques for seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions fall into two main categories; namely full-field initialization (FFI) and anomaly initialization (AI). In the FFI case the initial model state is replaced by the best possible available estimate of the real state. By doing so the initial error is efficiently reduced but, due to the unavoidable presence of model deficiencies, once the model is let free to run a prediction, its trajectory drifts away from the observations no matter how small the initial error is. This problem is partly overcome with AI where the aim is to forecast future anomalies by assimilating observed anomalies on an estimate of the model climate. The large variety of experimental setups, models and observational networks adopted worldwide make it difficult to draw firm conclusions on the respective advantages and drawbacks of FFI and AI, or to identify distinctive lines for improvement. The lack of a unified mathematical framework adds an additional difficulty toward the design of adequate initialization strategies that fit the desired forecast horizon, observational network and model at hand. Here we compare FFI and AI using a low-order climate model of nine ordinary differential equations and use the notation and concepts of data assimilation theory to highlight their error scaling properties. This analysis suggests better performances using FFI when a good observational network is available and reveals the direct relation of its skill with the observational accuracy. The skill of AI appears, however, mostly related to the model quality and clear increases of skill can only be expected in coincidence with model upgrades. We have compared FFI and AI in experiments in which either the full system or the atmosphere and ocean were independently initialized. In the former case FFI shows better and longer-lasting improvements, with skillful predictions until month 30. In the initialization of single compartments, the best performance is obtained when the stabler component of the model (the ocean) is initialized, but with FFI it is possible to have some predictive skill even when the most unstable compartment (the extratropical atmosphere) is observed. Two advanced formulations, least-square initialization (LSI) and exploring parameter uncertainty (EPU), are introduced. Using LSI the initialization makes use of model statistics to propagate information from observation locations to the entire model domain. Numerical results show that LSI improves the performance of FFI in all the situations when only a portion of the system's state is observed. EPU is an online drift correction method in which the drift caused by the parametric error is estimated using a short-time evolution law and is then removed during the forecast run. Its implementation in conjunction with FFI allows us to improve the prediction skill within the first forecast year. Finally, the application of these results in the context of realistic climate models is discussed

Indicators of the sense of intrusion in dikes

[Resumen] En este trabajo se establecen una serie de criterios que permite deducir el sentido de la inyección en los diques. Estos criterios son de dos tipos: A) Criterios basados en indicadores cinemáticos de la deformación, que se observan a meso y microescala en los contactos dique-roca de caja, y B) Criterios basados en la observaci6n cartográfica de ciertas variaciones geométricas, texturales, composicionales y de la deformación a lo largo de la dirección de flujo dentro del dique. A su vez, los primeros se subdividen en: 1) EStructuras de flujo magmático. 2) EStructuras miloníticas dúctiles a dúctiles-frágiles. 3) EStructuras frágiles. La deducci6n del sentido de la intrusi6n en los diques tiene gran importancia, tanto para los los esquemas tectónicos regionales, como para el estudio de los flujos magmáticos.[Abstract] In this paper we study sorne criteria that are useful as indicators of the sense of intrusion in dikes. There are two types of criteria: A) Criteria based on kinematic indicators, which are observable on the meso and microscale, on the dike/host-rock interfaces; B) Criteria based on the cartographical observation of certain geometrical, textural, compositional, and deformational variations along the direction of intrusion of the dikes. The meso and microscale indicators might be subdivided into three main types of structures: 1) Structures of magmatic flow; 2) Ductile to ductile-brittle mylonitic structures); 3) Brittle structures. The deduction of the sense of intrusion in dikes is very important, both for the establishment of regional tectonic schemes, and for the study of magmatic flow patterns

ENSEMBLES: a new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions: Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs

A new 46-year hindcast dataset for seasonal-to-annual ensemble predictions has been created using a multi-model ensemble of 5 state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation models. The multi-model outperforms any of the single-models in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs because of reduced RMS errors and enhanced ensemble dispersion at all lead-times. Systematic errors are considerably reduced over the previous generation (DEMETER). Probabilistic skill scores show higher skill for the new multi-model ensemble than for DEMETER in the 4–6 month forecast range. However, substantially improved models would be required to achieve strongly statistical significant skill increases. The combination of ENSEMBLES and DEMETER into a grand multi-model ensemble does not improve the forecast skill further. Annual-range hindcasts show anomaly correlation skill of ∼0.5 up to 14 months ahead. A wide range of output from the multi-model simulations is becoming publicly available and the international community is invited to explore the full scientific potential of these data

Late cenozoic identation/escape tectonics in the eastern Betic Cordilleras and its consequences on the Iberian foreland

The structuration of the southeastern quarter of the Iberian Peninsula (eastern Betics and Iberian foreland), since Messinian time, was the result of a series of complex deformational events, as related to a major NNE-SSW sinistral shear zone disrupting the southeasternmost part of the Betic cordilleras (Trans-Alborán-Palomares shear zone; TAPSZ). Deformation along this shear zone was characterized by two differentiated and sequential scenarios: 1) periods of stress-build-up associated to momentary slip-obstruction along the TAPSZ, involving NW-directed indentation of the southeastern Iberian domain, and 2) periods of stress-release resulting from the lateral escape of wedge-shaped blocks, thus allowing full-scale strike-slip displacements along the TAPSZ. These events imposed compressional stress fields on the Iberian foreland, with a series of consequences such as alkaline volcanism in Calatrava and Cofrentes, protorift zones, changes in previous structural trends, localized uplift/doming processes, and changes in the sedimentary records of sorne basins.La estructuración del cuadrante SE de la Península Ibérica (Béticas orientales y antepaís Ibérico), desde el Messiniense hasta la actualidad, ha sido el resultado de una serie compleja de eventos deformativos, relacionados con la actividad de una megazona de cizalla NNE-SSO en el SE de las Cordilleras Béticas (zona de cizalla Trans-Alborán-Palomares; TAPSZ). La deformación a lo largo de esta zona de cizalla se caracteriza por dos escenarios secuenciales diferentes: 1) períodos de concentración de esfuerzos, asociados con un frenado momentáneo del movimiento a lo largo de la TAPSZ, y con procesos de identación dirigidos hacia el NO, y 2) períodos de disipación de esfuerzos, que serían el resultado del escape lateral de bloques en forma de cuña, y del movimiento transcurrente renovado a lo largo de la TAPSZ. Estos eventos han generado campos de esfuerzos en el antepaís Ibérico, con una serie de consecuencias tales como el vulcanismo alcalino de Calatrava y Cofrentes, zonas de protorift, modificaciones de directrices estructurales previas, levantamientos/abombamientos localizados, y cambios en el régimen sedimentario de algunas cuencas

P42 127. Impacto hospitalario de las complicac iones esternales

IntroducciónLas complicaciones esternales suponen una de las complicaciones más importantes dentro de la cirugía cardíaca, con necesidad, en ocasiones, de reintervenir al paciente con el aumento de estancia hospitalaria y gasto económico que ello supone. Hemos analizado el impacto hospitalario que provoca en nuestro servicio la aparición de dicha complicación.Material y métodosHemos recogido durante 2 años consecutivos (2007 y 2008) todos los pacientes intervenidos en nuestro centro (n = 1.001), cuyo acceso quirúrgico ha sido la esternotomía media. Se han contabilizado todas las complicaciones esternales, registrando la estancia media en unidad de cuidados intensivos (UCI), estancia media hospitalaria y mortalidad a los 30 días de cada paciente.Se han comparado estos datos con los datos recogidos en pacientes sin complicaciones esternales. Se ha estimado el impacto económico que se deriva del tratamiento de dichas complicaciones mediante.ResultadosLa tasa de complicaciones esternales ha sido de 3,8% (n=38), siendo necesaria la reintervención sólo en cinco pacientes (13%). La estancia media en planta ponderada de los 2 años analizados ha sido de 9,5 días/paciente frente a 29,85 días en los pacientes con complicaciones esternales. La estancia media en UCI ha sido de 5,22 días/paciente frente a 11,63 en los pacientes con complicaciones. La mortalidad global ha sido de 5,6 frente a 23,6% en los pacientes con complicaciones esternales. El gasto medio global por ingreso ha sido de 9.600 €/paciente, elevándose a 28.000 € en los pacientes con complicaciones esternales.ConclusionesLas complicaciones esternales aumentan la estancia media hospitalaria y en UCI, condicionando un aumento de la mortalidad y del gasto sanitario

The Japanese Electricity System 15 months After March 11th 2011

The Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami on March 11th 2011 caused mass destruction, significant loss-of-life and a large displacement of people. It also placed significant strain of Japan's electricity-generating infrastructure. There was a significant reduction in capacity due to the damage in thermal generation and gradual closure of Japan's nuclear power plants; the ability for load-balancing across the Japanese grid was compromised due to limited interconnections between the different utilities that comprise the Japanese electricity system. This paper looks at the first fifteen months following the earthquake and tsunami: outlining the supply reduction and consequent attempts to manage the demand. In turn it highlights the foibles of Japan's vertically-integrated monopolistic structures and the evolution of governmental and utilities response that went from decisions made 'on-the-fly' to a more developed policy for peak-demand electricity savings. The findings from this paper should serve as a useful set of examples to aid decision makers in contingency planning for disruptive large-scale reduction in electricity-generating capacity

Diseño de mobiliario urbano para rehabilitación de espacios

La propuesta de trabajo parte de una de las líneas estratégicas del Vicerrectorado de Smart Campus (VSC) de la Universidad de Málaga (UMA), concretamente dentro de la línea “Naturaleza y medioambiente” con el proyecto denominado “Islas y Sendas Verdes” (ISV). El principal objetivo del proyecto es, a partir de un equipo multidisciplinar, desarrollar un espacio de ocio, esparcimiento, descanso, estudio al aire libre, sensorizado y sostenible, que cumpla los requisitos de los usuarios, haciendo que es-tas zonas tengan mayor vida social. La propuesta del presente trabajo es la creación de un diseño de mobiliario urbano que será ubicado en la zona exterior de la ESTI de Informática y la ETSI de Telecomunicación de la UMA. La metodología seguirá las fases del diseño y desarrollo de productos, comenzando con el estudio de mercado y la competencia, establecimiento de los requisitos del cliente y del producto, desarrollo y discusión de la idea y, por último, la propuesta definitiva a través del diseño técnico o de detalle donde el producto queda complemente definido en cuanto a forma, funcionalidad, materiales y resistencia mecánica. El resultado del proyecto muestra el desarrollado de un prototipo virtual que cumple con las especificaciones establecidas, obteniendo el primer premio del I Concurso de Islas y Sendas Verdes.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech