DScent Final Report

DScent was a joint project between five UK universities combining research theories in the disciplines of computational inference, forensic psychology and expert decision-making in the area of counter-terrorism. This document discusses the work carried out by Leeds Metropolitan University which covers the research, design and development work of an investigator support system in the area of deception using artificial intelligence. For the purposes of data generation along with system and hypothesis testing the project team devised two closed world games, the Cutting Corners Board Game and the Location Based Game. DScentTrail presents the investigator with a ‘scent trail’ of a suspect’s behaviour over time, allowing the investigator to present multiple challenges to a suspect from which they may prove the suspect guilty outright or receive cognitive or emotional clues of deception (Ekman 2002; Ekman & Frank 1993; Ekman & Yuille 1989; Hocking & Leathers 1980; Knapp & Comadena 1979). A scent trail is a collection of ordered, relevant behavioural information over time for a suspect. There are links into a neural network, which attempts to identify deceptive behavioural patterns of individuals. Preliminary work was carried out on a behavioural based AI module which would work separately alongside the neural network, with both identifying deception before integrating their results to update DScentTrail. Unfortunately the data that was necessary to design such a system was not provided and therefore, this section of research only reached its preliminary stages. To date research has shown that there are no specific patterns of deceptive behaviour that are consistent in all people, across all situations (Zuckerman 1981). DScentTrail is a decision support system, incorporating artificial intelligence (AI), which is intended to be used by investigators and attempts to find ways around the problem stated by Zuckerman above

The Temperament Police: The Truth, the Ground Truth, and Nothing but the Truth

The tuning system of a keyboard instrument is chosen so that frequently used musical intervals sound as consonant as possible. Temperament refers to the compromise arising from the fact that not all intervals can be maximally consonant simultaneously. Recent work showed that it is possible to estimate temperament from audio recordings with no prior knowledge of the musical score, using a conservative (high precision, low recall) automatic transcription algorithm followed by frequency estimation using quadratic interpolation and bias correction from the log magnitude spectrum. In this paper we develop a harpsichord-specific transcription system to analyse over 500 recordings of solo harpsichord music for which the temperament is specified on the CD sleeve notes. We compare the measured temperaments with the annotations and discuss the differences between temperament as a theoretical construct and as a practical issue for professional performers and tuners. The implications are that ground truth is not always scientific truth, and that content-based analysis has an important role in the study of historical performance practice. 1

Economic analysis of the implementation of autologous transfusion technologies throughout England

Objectives: This study aims to provide the first estimates of the costs and effects of the large scale introduction of autologous transfusion technologies into the United Kingdom National Health Service. Methods: A model was constructed to allow disparate data sources to be combined to produce estimates of the scale, costs, and effects of introducing four interventions. The interventions considered were preparing patients for surgery (PPS) clinics, preoperative autologous donation (PAD), intraoperative cell salvage (ICS), and postoperative cell salvage (PoCS). Results: The key determinants of cost per operation are the anticipated level of reductions in blood use, the mean level of blood use, mean length of stay, and the cost of the technology. The results show the potential for considerable reductions in blood use. The greatest reductions are anticipated to be through the use of PPS and ICS. Vascular surgery, transplant surgery, and cardiothoracic surgery appear to be the specialties that will benefit most from the technologies. Conclusions: Several simplifications were used in the production of these estimates; consequently, caution should be used in their interpretation and use. Despite the drawbacks in the methods used in the study, the model shows the scale of the issue, the importance of gathering better data, and the form that data must take. Such preliminary modeling exercises are essential for rational policy development and to direct future research and discussion among stakeholders

Device and method for frictionally testing materials for ignitability

Test apparatus for determining ignition characteristics of various metal in oxidizer environments simulating operating conditions for materials is invented. The test apparatus has a chamber through which the oxidizing agent flows, and means for mounting a stationary test sample therein, a powered, rotating shaft in the chamber rigidly mounts a second test sample. The shaft is axially movable to bring the samples into frictional engagement and heated to the ignition point. Instrumentation connected to the apparatus provides for observation of temperatures, pressures, loads on and speeds of the rotating shaft, and torques whereby components of stressed oxygen systems can be selected which will avoid accidental fires under working conditions

A Graphical Language for Proof Strategies

Complex automated proof strategies are often difficult to extract, visualise, modify, and debug. Traditional tactic languages, often based on stack-based goal propagation, make it easy to write proofs that obscure the flow of goals between tactics and are fragile to minor changes in input, proof structure or changes to tactics themselves. Here, we address this by introducing a graphical language called PSGraph for writing proof strategies. Strategies are constructed visually by "wiring together" collections of tactics and evaluated by propagating goal nodes through the diagram via graph rewriting. Tactic nodes can have many output wires, and use a filtering procedure based on goal-types (predicates describing the features of a goal) to decide where best to send newly-generated sub-goals. In addition to making the flow of goal information explicit, the graphical language can fulfil the role of many tacticals using visual idioms like branching, merging, and feedback loops. We argue that this language enables development of more robust proof strategies and provide several examples, along with a prototype implementation in Isabelle

Ultrasonic metal sheet thickness measurement without prior wave speed calibration

Conventional ultrasonic mensuration of sample thickness from one side only requires the bulk wave reverberation time and a calibration speed. This speed changes with temperature, stress, and microstructure, limiting thickness measurement accuracy. Often, only one side of a sample is accessible, making in situ calibration impossible. Non-contact ultrasound can generate multiple shear horizontal guided wave modes on one side of a metal plate. Measuring propagation times of each mode at different transducer separations, allows sheet thickness to be calculated to better than 1% accuracy for sheets of at least 1.5 mm thickness, without any calibration

Prevalence of vertebral fractures on chest radiographs of elderly African American and Caucasian women.

The prevalence of vertebral fractures on routine chest radiographs of elderly Caucasian women was only 1.3 times higher than in African American (AA) women, a difference considerably smaller than reported in population studies. AAs with medical problems may have higher risk of vertebral fractures than previously suspected.IntroductionEarlier studies noted a 1.9- to 3.7-fold higher prevalence of vertebral fractures in Caucasian (CA) compared to African American (AA) women. These studies, however, may have suffered from selection bias. We reported that among women referred for bone density testing, the prevalence of vertebral fractures in AA was the same as in CA women. Suspecting that the latter might have been due to a referral bias, we examined the racial difference in the prevalence of vertebra fractures on chest radiographs of patients seeking general medical care, not selected for osteoporosis.MethodsConsecutive chest radiographs (N = 1,200) of women over age 60 were evaluated using Genant's semi-quantitative method. Patients' race and the presence of diseases or medications associated with increased fracture risk were ascertained from the electronic medical records.ResultsAmong 1,011 women (76% AA) with usable radiographs, 11% had moderate or severe vertebral fractures. The prevalence of vertebral fractures was 10.3% in 773 AA and 13% in 238 CA women (p = 0.248 for difference between races). The lack of difference persisted after controlling for age, smoking, use of glucocorticoids, or presence of cancer, rheumatoid arthritis, organ transplantation, and end-stage renal disease. Among all subjects, CA women were more likely to be diagnosed and treated for osteoporosis (p <0.001).ConclusionAmong subjects seeking medical care, the difference in the prevalence of vertebral fractures between AA and CA women is smaller than previously suspected. Greater attention to the detection of vertebral fractures and the management of osteoporosis is warranted in AA women with medical problems

Evidence for Cosmic Acceleration is Robust to Observed Correlations Between Type Ia Supernova Luminosity and Stellar Age

Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) are powerful standardizable candles for constraining cosmological models and provided the first evidence of the accelerated expansion of the universe. Their precision derives from empirical correlations, now measured from $>1000$ SNe Ia, between their luminosities, light-curve shapes, colors and most recently with the stellar mass of their host galaxy. As mass correlates with other galaxy properties, alternative parameters have been investigated to improve SN Ia standardization though none have been shown to significantly alter the determination of cosmological parameters. We re-examine a recent claim, based on 34 SN Ia in nearby passive host galaxies, of a 0.05 mag/Gyr dependence of standardized SN Ia luminosity on host age which if extrapolated to higher redshifts, would be a bias up to 0.25 mag, challenging the inference of dark energy. We reanalyze this sample of hosts using both the original method and a Bayesian hierarchical model and find after a fuller accounting of the uncertainties the significance of a dependence on age to be $\leq2\sigma$ and $\sim1\sigma$ after the removal of a single poorly-sampled SN Ia. To test the claim that a trend seen in old stellar populations can be applied to younger ages, we extend our analysis to a larger sample which includes young hosts. We find the residual dependence of host age (after all standardization typically employed for cosmological measurements) to be consistent with zero for 254 SNe Ia from the Pantheon sample, ruling out the large but low significance trend seen in passive hosts.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures, 3 tables. Accepted for publication in ApJ