What Next-Generation 21 cm Power Spectrum Measurements Can Teach Us About the Epoch of Reionization

A number of experiments are currently working towards a measurement of the 21 cm signal from the Epoch of Reionization. Whether or not these experiments deliver a detection of cosmological emission, their limited sensitivity will prevent them from providing detailed information about the astrophysics of reionization. In this work, we consider what types of measurements will be enabled by a next-generation of larger 21 cm EoR telescopes. To calculate the type of constraints that will be possible with such arrays, we use simple models for the instrument, foreground emission, and the reionization history. We focus primarily on an instrument modeled after the $\sim 0.1~\rm{km}^2$ collecting area Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) concept design, and parameterize the uncertainties with regard to foreground emission by considering different limits to the recently described "wedge" footprint in k-space. Uncertainties in the reionization history are accounted for using a series of simulations which vary the ionizing efficiency and minimum virial temperature of the galaxies responsible for reionization, as well as the mean free path of ionizing photons through the IGM. Given various combinations of models, we consider the significance of the possible power spectrum detections, the ability to trace the power spectrum evolution versus redshift, the detectability of salient power spectrum features, and the achievable level of quantitative constraints on astrophysical parameters. Ultimately, we find that $0.1~\rm{km}^2$ of collecting area is enough to ensure a very high significance ($\gtrsim30\sigma$) detection of the reionization power spectrum in even the most pessimistic scenarios. This sensitivity should allow for meaningful constraints on the reionization history and astrophysical parameters, especially if foreground subtraction techniques can be improved and successfully implemented.Comment: 27 pages, 18 figures, updated SKA numbers in appendi

Characterizing Signal Loss in the 21 cm Reionization Power Spectrum: A Revised Study of PAPER-64

The Epoch of Reionization (EoR) is an uncharted era in our Universe's history during which the birth of the first stars and galaxies led to the ionization of neutral hydrogen in the intergalactic medium. There are many experiments investigating the EoR by tracing the 21cm line of neutral hydrogen. Because this signal is very faint and difficult to isolate, it is crucial to develop analysis techniques that maximize sensitivity and suppress contaminants in data. It is also imperative to understand the trade-offs between different analysis methods and their effects on power spectrum estimates. Specifically, with a statistical power spectrum detection in HERA's foreseeable future, it has become increasingly important to understand how certain analysis choices can lead to the loss of the EoR signal. In this paper, we focus on signal loss associated with power spectrum estimation. We describe the origin of this loss using both toy models and data taken by the 64-element configuration of the Donald C. Backer Precision Array for Probing the Epoch of Reionization (PAPER). In particular, we highlight how detailed investigations of signal loss have led to a revised, higher 21cm power spectrum upper limit from PAPER-64. Additionally, we summarize errors associated with power spectrum error estimation that were previously unaccounted for. We focus on a subset of PAPER-64 data in this paper; revised power spectrum limits from the PAPER experiment are presented in a forthcoming paper by Kolopanis et al. (in prep.) and supersede results from previously published PAPER analyses.Comment: 25 pages, 18 figures, Accepted by Ap

The Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array Dish II: Characterization of Spectral Structure with Electromagnetic Simulations and its science Implications

We use time-domain electromagnetic simulations to determine the spectral characteristics of the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Arrays (HERA) antenna. These simulations are part of a multi-faceted campaign to determine the effectiveness of the dish's design for obtaining a detection of redshifted 21 cm emission from the epoch of reionization. Our simulations show the existence of reflections between HERA's suspended feed and its parabolic dish reflector that fall below -40 dB at 150 ns and, for reasonable impedance matches, have a negligible impact on HERA's ability to constrain EoR parameters. It follows that despite the reflections they introduce, dishes are effective for increasing the sensitivity of EoR experiments at relatively low cost. We find that electromagnetic resonances in the HERA feed's cylindrical skirt, which is intended to reduce cross coupling and beam ellipticity, introduces significant power at large delays ($-40$ dB at 200 ns) which can lead to some loss of measurable Fourier modes and a modest reduction in sensitivity. Even in the presence of this structure, we find that the spectral response of the antenna is sufficiently smooth for delay filtering to contain foreground emission at line-of-sight wave numbers below $k_\parallel \lesssim 0.2$ $h$Mpc$^{-1}$, in the region where the current PAPER experiment operates. Incorporating these results into a Fisher Matrix analysis, we find that the spectral structure observed in our simulations has only a small effect on the tight constraints HERA can achieve on parameters associated with the astrophysics of reionization.Comment: Accepted to ApJ, 18 pages, 17 Figures. Replacement matches accepted manuscrip

A self-consistent, multi-variate method for the determination of gas phase rate coefficients, applied to reactions of atmospheric VOCs and the hydroxyl radical

Gas-phase rate coefficients are fundamental to understanding atmospheric chemistry, yet experimental data are not available for the oxidation reactions of many of the thousands of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) observed in the troposphere. Here a new experimental method is reported for the simultaneous study of reactions between multiple different VOCs and OH, the most important daytime atmospheric radical oxidant. This technique is based upon established relative rate concepts but has the advantage of a much higher throughput of target VOCs. By evaluating multiple VOCs in each experiment, and through measurement of the depletion in each VOC after reaction with OH, the OH + VOC reaction rate coefficients can be derived. Results from experiments conducted under controlled laboratory conditions were in good agreement with the available literature for the reaction of nineteen VOCs, prepared in synthetic gas mixtures, with OH. This approach was used to determine a rate coefficient for the reaction of OH with 2,3-dimethylpent-1-ene for the first time; k = 5.7 (±0.3) × 10–11–cm3 molecule−1 s−1. In addition, a further seven VOCs had only two, or fewer, individual OH rate coefficient measurements available in the literature. The results from this work were in good agreement with those measurements. A similar dataset, at an elevated temperature of 323 (±10) K, was used to determine new OH rate coefficients for twelve aromatic, five alkane, five alkene and three monoterpene VOC + OH reactions. In OH relative reactivity experiments that used ambient air at the University of York, a large number of different VOCs were observed, of which 23 were positively identified. 19 OH rate coefficients were derived from these ambient air samples, including ten reactions for which data was previously unavailable at the elevated reaction temperature of T = 323 (±10) K

The Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array Dish I: Beam Pattern Measurements and Science Implications

The Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) is a radio interferometer aiming to detect the power spectrum of 21 cm fluctuations from neutral hydrogen from the Epoch of Reionization (EOR). Drawing on lessons from the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) and the Precision Array for Probing the Epoch of Reionization (PAPER), HERA is a hexagonal array of large (14 m diameter) dishes with suspended dipole feeds. Not only does the dish determine overall sensitivity, it affects the observed frequency structure of foregrounds in the interferometer. This is the first of a series of four papers characterizing the frequency and angular response of the dish with simulations and measurements. We focus in this paper on the angular response (i.e., power pattern), which sets the relative weighting between sky regions of high and low delay, and thus, apparent source frequency structure. We measure the angular response at 137 MHz using the ORBCOMM beam mapping system of Neben et al. We measure a collecting area of 93 m^2 in the optimal dish/feed configuration, implying HERA-320 should detect the EOR power spectrum at z~9 with a signal-to-noise ratio of 12.7 using a foreground avoidance approach with a single season of observations, and 74.3 using a foreground subtraction approach. Lastly we study the impact of these beam measurements on the distribution of foregrounds in Fourier space.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figures. Replaced to match accepted ApJ versio

T-replete cord transplants give superior outcomes in high risk and relapsed/refractory paediatric myeloid malignancy

Stem cell transplant (SCT) outcomes in high-risk (HR) and relapsed/refractory (R/R) paediatric acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) have been poor historically. Cord blood allows T-cell replete transplant (TRCB), enabling enhanced graft-versus-leukaemia. We collected data from 367 consecutive patients undergoing TRCB (112 patients) or other cell source (255 patients) SCT for paediatric AML/MDS in the UK and Ireland between January 2014 and December 2021. Data was collected about patient's demographics, disease and its treatment including previous transplant, measurable residual disease (MRD) status at transplant, HLA-match, relapse, death, graft versus host disease (GvHD) and transplant-related mortality (TRM). Univariable and multivariable analyses were undertaken. There was a higher incidence of poor prognosis features in the TRCB cohort: 51.4% patients were MRD positive at transplant, 46.4% had refractory disease and 21.4% had relapsed after a previous SCT, compared with 26.1%, 8.6% and 5.1% respectively in the comparator group (all p <0.001). Within the TRCB cohort, Event Free Survival (EFS) was 64.1%, 50% in MRD positive patients and 79% in MRD negative (p= 0.009). To allow for the imbalance in baseline characteristics, a multivariable analysis was performed: the TRCB cohort had significantly improved EFS (0.57[0.35-0.91], p=0.019), time to relapse (0.46[0.26-0.81), p=0.008), and reduced chronic GVHD (HR 0.28 [95% CI 0.11-0.70]; p=0.007), with some evidence of improved Overall Survival (OS) (0.65[0.39-1.07], p = 0.088). The effect appeared similar regardless of MRD status, (interaction p-value= 0.29). CB transplant without serotherapy may be the optimal transplant option for children with myeloid malignancy

Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA)

The Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) is a staged experiment to measure 21 cm emission from the primordial intergalactic medium (IGM) throughout cosmic reionization ($z=6-12$), and to explore earlier epochs of our Cosmic Dawn ($z\sim30$). During these epochs, early stars and black holes heated and ionized the IGM, introducing fluctuations in 21 cm emission. HERA is designed to characterize the evolution of the 21 cm power spectrum to constrain the timing and morphology of reionization, the properties of the first galaxies, the evolution of large-scale structure, and the early sources of heating. The full HERA instrument will be a 350-element interferometer in South Africa consisting of 14-m parabolic dishes observing from 50 to 250 MHz. Currently, 19 dishes have been deployed on site and the next 18 are under construction. HERA has been designated as an SKA Precursor instrument. In this paper, we summarize HERA's scientific context and provide forecasts for its key science results. After reviewing the current state of the art in foreground mitigation, we use the delay-spectrum technique to motivate high-level performance requirements for the HERA instrument. Next, we present the HERA instrument design, along with the subsystem specifications that ensure that HERA meets its performance requirements. Finally, we summarize the schedule and status of the project. We conclude by suggesting that, given the realities of foreground contamination, current-generation 21 cm instruments are approaching their sensitivity limits. HERA is designed to bring both the sensitivity and the precision to deliver its primary science on the basis of proven foreground filtering techniques, while developing new subtraction techniques to unlock new capabilities. The result will be a major step toward realizing the widely recognized scientific potential of 21 cm cosmology.Comment: 26 pages, 24 figures, 2 table