Estimating the chance of success in IVF treatment using a ranking algorithm

In medicine, estimating the chance of success for treatment is important in deciding whether to begin the treatment or not. This paper focuses on the domain of in vitro fertilization (IVF), where estimating the outcome of a treatment is very crucial in the decision to proceed with treatment for both the clinicians and the infertile couples. IVF treatment is a stressful and costly process. It is very stressful for couples who want to have a baby. If an initial evaluation indicates a low pregnancy rate, decision of the couple may change not to start the IVF treatment. The aim of this study is twofold, firstly, to develop a technique that can be used to estimate the chance of success for a couple who wants to have a baby and secondly, to determine the attributes and their particular values affecting the outcome in IVF treatment. We propose a new technique, called success estimation using a ranking algorithm (SERA), for estimating the success of a treatment using a ranking-based algorithm. The particular ranking algorithm used here is RIMARC. The performance of the new algorithm is compared with two well-known algorithms that assign class probabilities to query instances. The algorithms used in the comparison are Naïve Bayes Classifier and Random Forest. The comparison is done in terms of area under the ROC curve, accuracy and execution time, using tenfold stratified cross-validation. The results indicate that the proposed SERA algorithm has a potential to be used successfully to estimate the probability of success in medical treatment. © 2015, The Author(s)

Progesterone change in the late follicular phase affects pregnancy rates both agonist and antagonist protocols in normoresponders: A case-controlled study in ICSI cycles

Objective: The aim of the presented study is to investigate the impact of progesterone change in the late follicular phase on the pregnancy rates of both agonist and antagonist protocols in normoresponders.Study design: A total of 201 normoresponder patients, who underwent embryo transfer were consecutively selected. 118 patients were stimulated using a long luteal GnRH agonist protocol and 83 using a flexible antagonist protocol. The level of change in late follicular phase progesterone was calculated according to the progesterone levels on the hCG day and pre-hCG day (1 or 2 days prior to hCG day) measurement.Results: Clinical pregnancy rates were comparable between long luteal and antagonist group (35.6 and 41%, respectively). The incidence of progesterone elevation on the hCG day was 11% in long luteal and 18% in antagonist group (p = 0.16). In pregnant cycles, p levels both on the hCG day and pre-hCG day measurement were significantly higher in antagonist than agonist cycles (p = 0.029, p = 0.038, respectively). The change of p level was statistically significant in non-pregnant cycles both for the agonist (-0.17 ± 0.07; 95% CI: -0.29 to -0.37) and antagonist groups (-0.18 ± 0.07; 95%CI: -0.31 to -0.04).Conclusions: Late follicular phase progesterone levels were stable during the cycles of pregnant patients irrespective of the protocols and were shown to be higher in pregnant patients in antagonist cycles when compared to agonist cycles. © 2015 The Author(s). Published by Taylor & Francis

A 3-year multicentre randomized controlled trial of etonogestrel- and levonorgestrel-releasing contraceptive implants, with non-randomized matched copper-intrauterine device controls

STUDY QUESTION Is there any difference in the clinical performance of the 3-year one-rod etonogestrel (ENG)- and the 5-year two-rod levonorgestrel (LNG)-releasing contraceptive implants during 3 years of insertion, and between implant and intrauterine device (IUD) contraception, in particular complaints possibly related to hormonal contraceptives? SUMMARY ANSWER The cumulative contraceptive effectiveness after 3 years and method continuation through 2.5 years were not significantly different between ENG and LNG implants, but both outcomes were significantly worse in the non-randomized age-matched group of IUD users than in the combined implant group. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY ENG- and LNG-releasing implants are safe and highly efficacious contraceptives with pregnancy rates reported to be 0.0-0.5 per 100 women-years (W-Y). No head-to-head comparative study of the two implants has been undertaken, and little information is available on comparisons of complaints of side effects of implant and copper IUD users. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION This was an open parallel group RCT with 1:1 allocation ratio of the ENG and the LNG implants with non-randomized control group of women choosing TCu380A IUD to address lack of reliable data on common side effects typically attributed to the use of progestogen-only contraceptives. After device(s) placement, follow-ups were at 2 weeks, 3 and 6 months, and semi-annually thereafter for 3 years or until pregnancy, removal or expulsion of the implant/IUD occurred. PARTICIPANTS, SETTING, METHODS The study took place in family planning clinics in Brazil, Chile, Dominican Republic, Hungary, Thailand, Turkey and Zimbabwe. Women seeking long-term contraception were enlisted after an eligibility check and informed consent, and 2982 women were enrolled: 1003, 1005 and 974 in the ENG-implant, LNG-implant and IUD groups, respectively; 995, 997 and 971, respectively, were included in the per protocol analysis reported here. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE ENG and LNG implants each had the same 3-year cumulative pregnancy rate of 0.4 per 100 W-Y [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.1-1.4]. A weight of ≥70 kg at admission was unrelated to pregnancy. Method continuation rates for ENG and LNG implants at 2.5 years were 69.8 (95% CI 66.8-72.6) and 71.8 per 100 W-Y (68.8-74.5), and at 3 years 12.1 (95% CI 5.2-22.0) and 52.0 per 100 W-Y (95% CI 41.8-61.2), respectively. Bleeding disturbances, the most frequent reason for method discontinuation, were significantly more common in the ENG group [16.7 (95% CI 14.4-19.3)] than in the LNG group [12.5 (95% CI 10.5-14.9)] (P 0.019). The 3-year cumulative loss to follow-up was lower in the ENG- than in the LNG-implant group, 8.1 (95% CI 6.4-10.2) and 14.4 per 100 W-Y (95% CI 12.1-17.1), respectively. The median duration of implant removal was 50 s shorter among women with ENG than among women with LNG implant (P < 0.0001). In the observational comparison between IUD and implant users, the 3-year relative risk for pregnancy in IUD group compared with the combined implant group was 5.7 per 100 W-Y (95% CI 4.4-7.3) (P = 0.0003). The 3-year expulsion rate of the IUD was 17.8 per 100 W-Y (95% CI 14.5-21.9), while the discontinuation rate for bleeding disturbances was 8.5 (95% CI 6.7-10.9). Frequency of complaints of headache and dizziness was not significantly different between implant and IUD users (P = 0.16 and 0.77, respectively), acne and bleeding irregularities were more frequent among implant users (P < 0.0001), while heavy bleeding and lower abdominal pain occurred more often among IUD than implant users (P < 0.0001). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Few women were ≤19 years old or nulligravida, the proportion of implant users ≥70 kg was <20% and <8% were obese. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS Findings of the study can inform policy makers and clinicians about choice of implant, but also about TCu380A IUD in relation to implants. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) UNDP/UNFPA/WHO/UNICEF/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction (HRP), Department of Reproductive Health and Research (RHR), World Health Organization (WHO). This report contains the views of an international expert group and does not necessarily represent the decisions or the stated policy of the WHO. TRIAL REGISTRATION ISRCTN33378571 registered on 22 March 2004. The first participant was enrolled on 12 May 200

Polycystic ovary syndrome

The document attached has been archived with permission from the editor of the Medical Journal of Australia. An external link to the publisher’s copy is included.Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) affects 5-20% of women of reproductive age worldwide. The condition is characterized by hyperandrogenism, ovulatory dysfunction and polycystic ovarian morphology (PCOM) - with excessive androgen production by the ovaries being a key feature of PCOS. Metabolic dysfunction characterized by insulin resistance and compensatory hyperinsulinaemia is evident in the vast majority of affected individuals. PCOS increases the risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus, gestational diabetes and other pregnancy-related complications, venous thromboembolism, cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events and endometrial cancer. PCOS is a diagnosis of exclusion, based primarily on the presence of hyperandrogenism, ovulatory dysfunction and PCOM. Treatment should be tailored to the complaints and needs of the patient and involves targeting metabolic abnormalities through lifestyle changes, medication and potentially surgery for the prevention and management of excess weight, androgen suppression and/or blockade, endometrial protection, reproductive therapy and the detection and treatment of psychological features. This Primer summarizes the current state of knowledge regarding the epidemiology, mechanisms and pathophysiology, diagnosis, screening and prevention, management and future investigational directions of the disorder.Robert J Norman, Ruijin Wu and Marcin T Stankiewic

Evaluation of quality of life in fertile Turkish women with severe endometriosis

Kiykac Altinbas, Sadiman/0000-0003-2773-9641WOS: 000346300100013PubMed: 24960476We assessed the impact of pain, dysmenorrhoea and dyspareunia on the quality of life among Turkish fertile women with severe endometriosis. A total of 33 patients with histopathologically diagnosed severe endometriosis (Stage IV, revised criteria of the American Fertility Society (rAFS score) were enrolled into the study. Patients reported chronic pelvic pain using a visual analogue scale (VAS) and severity of dysmenorrhoea, dyspareunia and pelvic tenderness using the verbal rating scale (VRS). Quality of life (physical, psychological, social, environmental domains) was evaluated using the World Health Organization Quality of Life Assessment-BREF (WHOQOL-BREF). There were no correlations between quality of life and VRS and VAS scores of chronic pelvic pain in patients with dyspareunia (p > 0.05). VRS in patients with dysmenorrhoea negatively correlated with physical, social and environmental dimensions of quality of life (r = -0.382, r = -0.221, r = -0.373 and p = 0.028, p = 0.013, p = 0.033, respectively). Although the severity of dysmenorrhoea seems to be related with lower quality of life, chronic pelvic pain and dyspareunia due to endometriosis may not have any deleterious effects on the quality of life

Routine histopathologic analysis of product of conception following first-trimester spontaneous miscarriages

Aim: To evaluate the histopathologic findings relating to tissue samples collected at surgical uterine evacuation in first-trimester spontaneous miscarriages

Comparison of single and multiple dose methotrexate therapy for unruptured tubal ectopic pregnancy: A prospective randomized study

PubMed: 20583934Objective. To compare the success rates of single and multiple dose methotrexate protocols for the treatment of unruptured tubal ectopic pregnancy. Design. Prospective randomized controlled trial. Setting. Maternity and teaching hospital in Turkey. Population. One hundred twenty women treated with methotrexate therapy for unruptured tubal ectopic pregnancy. Methods. Sixty-two women received a single dose and 58 received a multiple dose methotrexate regimen. Main outcome measures. Success rate of methotrexate therapy (women successfully treated with one injection and women who completed four doses). Results. In the single dose group, treatment was considered successful in 50 women (80.6%), whereas in the multiple dose group, 52 women (89.7%) responded to treatment (p 0.21; OR 0.90, 95%CI 0.771.05). The average number of days required for human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) levels to fall below 5 mU/mL was longer in the single dose (22.3 ± 7.6) compared with the multiple dose group (18.3 ± 10.7) (p 0.03). In the single dose group fewer or 17 women (24.7%) experienced side-effects compared to 28 (48.3%) of those who had multiple doses (p 0.02, OR 0.57, 95%CI 0.350.92). Conclusion. A multiple dose methotrexate regimen for the treatment of unruptured tubal ectopic pregnancy is not more effective than a single dose one. In addition, multiple doses may cause more side-effects, but the time for hCG levels to fall below 5 mU/mL is shorter. © 2010 Informa UK Ltd

Factors affecting pregnancy outcome of intrauterine insemination cycles in couples with favourable female characteristics

The aim of the presented study is to determine the effect of different sperm parameters on the pregnancy rate of intrauterine insemination (IUI) cycles in women with favourable fertility characteristics treated for infertility. Medical records of 212 infertile couples who had undergone a total of 253 cycles were reviewed retrospectively. Inclusion criteria for women were age 5, FSH 10 x 10(6). Partner's age significantly affected the pregnancy rate per cycle in women aged 10 x 10(6). Woman's age (OR: 5.4 95% CI: 1.2-24.3) and TMS (OR: 0.06 95% CI: 0.003-0.89) were predictor variables as regards to pregnancy. Pregnancy rate was the highest in IUI cycles when woman was 10 x 10(6), and morphology was 44%. Male age was found to be another determining factor for IUI success, even if they had a normal spermiogram

Reproductive performance after hysteroscopic metroplasty in infertile women: complete versus partial uterine septum

WOS: 000385006200026PubMed: 29734554Objective: To investigate the impact of hysteroscopic metroplasty on pregnancy outcome in women with complete or incomplete uterine septum (US) accompanying infertility. Materials and Methods: Seventy-three patients who had hysteroscopic metroplasty for complete and incomplete US with primary and secondary infertility were reviewed. Obstetric outcomes (number of pregnancies, live births, and miscarriages) up to 36 months follow up period were investigated. Results: Twenty-five patients in complete US and 28 patients in incomplete US became pregnant in 36 months follow up. Postoperative miscarriage rate was significantly lower in patients with complete US (p = 0.0001, p = 0.0001, respectively). The mean gestational week at the time of birth and mean birth weight of the infants were significantly lower in patients with complete US compared to the incomplete US cases (p = 0.026, p = 0.049, respectively). Postoperative pregnancy rate was significantly lower in incomplete US patients with primary infertility compared with secondary infertility (p = 0.037). Conclusion: Hysteroscopic metroplasty improves fertility and pregnancy performance. This improvement is more prominent in patients with complete US, mid incomplete US patients with secondary infertility