Comparing water quantity and quality in three inland valley watersheds with different levels of agricultural development in central Benin

Achieving sustainable agricultural intensification in inland valleys while limiting the impacts on water quantity and water quality requires a better understanding of the valleys’ hydrological behavior with respect to their contributing watersheds. This study aims at assessing the dynamics of hydrological processes and nitrate loads within inland valleys that are experiencing different land uses. To achieve this goal, an HRU-based interface (ArcSWAT2012) and a grid-based setup (SWATgrid) of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were applied to three headwater inland valley watersheds located in the commune of Djougou in central Benin that are characterized by different proportions of cultivated area. Satisfactory model performance was obtained from the calibration and validation of daily discharges with the values of R2 and NSE mostly higher than 0.5, but not for nitrate loads. The annual water balance reveals that more than 60% of precipitation water is lost to evapotranspiration at all sites, amounting to 868 mm in Kounga, 741 mm in Tossahou, and 645 mm in Kpandouga. Percolation (302 mm) is important in the Kpandouga watershed which is dominated by natural vegetation at 99.7%, whereas surface runoff (105 mm) and lateral flow (92 mm) are the highest in the Kounga watershed having the highest proportion of agricultural land use (14%). In all the studied watersheds, nitrate loads are very low (not exceeding 4000 KgN per year) due to the low fertilizer application rates, and the water quality is not threatened if a standard threshold of 10 mg/l NO3-N is applied. The results achieved in this study show that SWAT can successfully be used in spatial planning for sustainable agricultural development with limited environmental impact on water resources in inland valley landscapes

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Kilombero Catchment in Tanzania

This article illustrates the impact of potential future climate scenarios on water quantity in time and space for an East African floodplain catchment surrounded by mountainous areas. In East Africa, agricultural intensification is shifting from upland cultivation into the wetlands due to year-round water availability and fertile soils. These advantageous agricultural conditions might be hampered through climate change impacts. Additionally, water-related risks, like droughts and flooding events, are likely to increase. Hence, this study investigates future climate patterns and their impact on water resources in one production cluster in Tanzania. To account for these changes, a regional climate model ensemble of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa project was analyzed to investigate changes in climatic patterns until 2060, according to the RCP4.5 (representative concentration pathways) and RCP8.5 scenarios. The semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was utilized to analyze the impacts on water resources according to all scenarios. Modeling results indicate increasing temperatures, especially in the hot dry season, intensifying the distinctive features of the dry and rainy season. This consequently aggravates hydrological extremes, such as more-pronounced flooding and decreasing low flows. Overall, annual averages of water yield and surface runoff increase up to 61.6% and 67.8%, respectively, within the bias-corrected scenario simulations, compared to the historical simulations. However, changes in precipitation among the analyzed scenarios vary between −8.3% and +22.5% of the annual averages. Hydrological modeling results also show heterogeneous spatial patterns inside the catchment. These spatio-temporal patterns indicate the possibility of an aggravation for severe floods in wet seasons, as well as an increasing drought risk in dry seasons across the scenario simulations. Apart from that, the discharge peak, which is crucial for the flood recession agriculture in the floodplain, is likely to shift from April to May from the 2020s onwards

Impact of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Water Resources of a Tropical Inland Valley Catchment in Uganda, East Africa

The impact of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change continues to threaten water resources availability for the agriculturally used inland valley wetlands and their catchments in East Africa. This study assessed climate and LULC change impacts on the hydrological processes of a tropical headwater inland valley catchment in Uganda. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to analyze climate and LULC change impacts on the hydrological processes. An ensemble of six regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used for climate change assessment for historical (1976-2005) and future climate (2021-2050). Four LULC scenarios defined as exploitation, total conservation, slope conservation, and protection of headwater catchment were considered. The results indicate an increase in precipitation by 7.4% and 21.8% of the annual averages in the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Future wet conditions are more pronounced in the short rainy season than in the long rainy season. Flooding intensity is likely to increase during the rainy season with low flows more pronounced in the dry season. Increases in future annual averages of water yield (29.0% and 42.7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) and surface runoff (37.6% and 51.8% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) relative to the historical simulations are projected. LULC and climate change individually will cause changes in the inland valley hydrological processes, but more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, although LULC changes will have a dominant influence. Adoption of total conservation, slope conservation and protection of headwater catchment LULC scenarios will significantly reduce climate change impacts on water resources in the inland valley. Thus, if sustainable climate-smart management practices are adopted, the availability of water resources for human consumption and agricultural production will increase

Multitemporal optical and radar metrics for wetland mapping at national level in Albania

Wetlands are highly dynamic, with many natural and anthropogenic drivers causing seasonal, periodic or permanent changes in their structure and composition. Thus, it is necessary to use time series of images for accurate classifications and monitoring. We used all available Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images to produce a national wetlands map for Albania. We derived different indices and temporal metrics and investigated their impacts and synergies in terms of mapping accuracy. Best results were achieved when combining Sentinel-1 with Sentinel-2 and its derived indices. We reduced systematic errors and increased the thematic resolution using morphometric characteristics and knowledge-based rules, achieving an overall accuracy of 82%. Results were also validated against field inventories. This methodology can be reproducible to other countries and can be made operational for an integrated planning that considers the food, water, and energy nexus

Hydrological Modeling in Data-Scarce Catchments: The Kilombero Floodplain in Tanzania

Deterioration of upland soils, demographic growth, and climate change all lead to an increased utilization of wetlands in East Africa. This considerable pressure on wetland resources results in trade-offs between those resources and their related ecosystem services. Furthermore, relationships between catchment attributes and available wetland water resources are one of the key drivers that might lead to wetland degradation. To investigate the impacts of these developments on catchment-wetland water resources, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the Kilombero Catchment in Tanzania, which is like many other East African catchments, as it is characterized by overall data scarcity. Due to the lack of recent discharge data, the model was calibrated for the period from 1958–1965 (R2 = 0.86, NSE = 0.85, KGE = 0.93) and validated from 1966–1970 (R2 = 0.80, NSE = 0.80, KGE = 0.89) with the sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm (SUFI-2) on a daily resolution. Results show the dependency of the wetland on baseflow contribution from the enclosing catchment, especially in dry season. Main contributions with regard to overall water yield arise from the northern mountains and the southeastern highlands, which are characterized by steep slopes and a high share of forest and savanna vegetation, respectively. Simulations of land use change effects, generated with Landsat images from the 1970s up to 2014, show severe shifts in the water balance components on the subcatchment scale due to anthropogenic activities. Sustainable management of the investigated catchment should therefore account for the catchment–wetland interaction concerning water resources, with a special emphasis on groundwater fluxes to ensure future food production as well as the preservation of the wetland ecosyste

Sustainable and resource efficient intensivation of crop production – Perspectives of agro-ecosystem researchPolicy paper of the DFG Senate Commission on Agroecosystem Research

Mit dem vorliegenden Grundsatzpapier zeigt die Senatskommission für Agrarökosystemforschung Perspektiven für die Grundlagenforschung zur nachhaltigen Erhöhung der Kulturpflanzenproduktion auf.Agrarsysteme stehen im Spannungsfeld zwischen steigendem Bedarf an landwirtschaftlichen Produkten, der Verknappung der Ressourcen, dem Verlust der Biodiversität und dem Klimawandel. Die für das Jahr 2050 prognostizierte notwendige Ertragssteigerung zur Sicherstellung des Bedarfs an Nahrungsmitteln kann, ohne die Belastbarkeitsgrenzen ökologischer Systeme zu überschreiten, nur durch wissenschaftlichen Fortschritt bewältigt werden (Abb. 1), der eine nachhaltige und ressourcen­effiziente Steigerung der Agrarproduktion ermöglicht (FAO, 2011; Dobermann und Nelson, 2013). Die nachhaltige Intensivierung stellt die Agrarwissenschaften vor neue Aufgaben, die weit über ihre klassischen Grenzen hinausgehen.Die Senatskommission plädiert daher für eine Erweiterung der agrarwissenschaftlichen Perspektive. Die meist auf einzelne Feldfrüchte bezogene Bewertung der Rela­tion zwischen Input und Ertrag muss ergänzt werden um die Optionen, die sich aus der räumlichen und zeitlichen Diversifikation der Produktionssysteme unter Einbeziehung der standörtlichen Eigenschaften, des Landschaftskontextes sowie des Klimawandels ergeben. Um Ökosystemleistungen einzubeziehen, müssen Produktionsstrategien entwickelt werden, die sich auf ganze Landschaften und Regionen richten und auch entsprechende sozio­öko­no­mische und agrarpolitische Rahmenbedingungen berücksichtigen.Vor diesem Hintergrund schlägt die Senatskommission drei interdisziplinäre Forschungsschwerpunkte zur ressourceneffizienten Erhöhung der Flächenproduktivität vor:(1) Ausnutzung des Potentials von Kulturpflanzen zur umweltschonenden Ertragssteigerung im Kontext öko­systemarer Bedingungen.(2) Nachhaltige Steigerung der Pflanzenproduktion im Landschaftskontext.(3) Ökonomische, gesellschaftliche und politische Dimensionen der Ertragssteigerung von Kulturpflanzen. DOI: 10.5073/JfK.2014.07.01, https://doi.org/10.5073/JfK.2014.07.01With its policy paper the Senate Commission on Agro-ecosystem Research of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) summarizes potential benefits of basic research for the sustainable intensification of crop production. Agro-ecosystems critically contribute to fulfilling the need for increasing food and fiber production, diminishing resource depletion as well as counteracting biodiversity loss and climate change. Yield demands that are needed to ensure the food supply predicted for the year 2050 can only be achieved by scientific progress that allows the intensive yet environmentally friendly production of plant biomass (Figure 1), (FAO, 2011; Dobermann und Nelson, 2013; Ray et al., 2013). Sustainable intensification requires a scientific realignment that allows for broadening the scope of agricultural research. The productivity of farming systems should be evaluated with regard to their efficiency (input-output relation). In addition, the spatial and temporal variability of these systems must be considered by addressing local conditions, the landscape context and climate change. With respect to ecosystem services, new production strategies must be developed that take all aspects of landscape and regional complexity as well as socio-economic conditions and agricultural policy into account.Against this background, the Senate Commission on Agro-ecosystem Research proposes three priority areas of interdisciplinary research on resource efficient intensification of crop production:(1) Exploiting the biological potential of the individual crop plants for an environmentally friendly intensification in an ecosystem approach(2) Exploring sustainable intensification of crop production within a landscape context(3) Taking full account of the economic, social and political dimensions of sustainable intensification of crop production DOI: 10.5073/JfK.2014.07.01, https://doi.org/10.5073/JfK.2014.07.0

Multivariate Prediction of Total Water Storage Changes Over West Africa from Multi-Satellite Data

West African countries have been exposed to changes in rainfall patterns over the last decades, including a significant negative trend. This causes adverse effects on water resources of the region, for instance, reduced freshwater availability. Assessing and predicting large-scale total water storage (TWS) variations are necessary for West Africa, due to its environmental, social, and economical impacts. Hydrological models, however, may perform poorly over West Africa due to data scarcity. This study describes a new statistical, data-driven approach for predicting West African TWS changes from (past) gravity data obtained from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE), and (concurrent) rainfall data from the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) and sea surface temperature (SST) data over the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. The proposed method, therefore, capitalizes on the availability of remotely sensed observations for predicting monthly TWS, a quantity which is hard to observe in the field but important for measuring regional energy balance, as well as for agricultural, and water resource management.Major teleconnections within these data sets were identified using independent component analysis and linked via low-degree autoregressive models to build a predictive framework. After a learning phase of 72 months, our approach predicted TWS from rainfall and SST data alone that fitted to the observed GRACE-TWS better than that from a global hydrological model. Our results indicated a fit of 79 % and 67 % for the first-year prediction of the two dominant annual and inter-annual modes of TWS variations. This fit reduces to 62 % and 57 % for the second year of projection. The proposed approach, therefore, represents strong potential to predict the TWS over West Africa up to 2 years. It also has the potential to bridge the present GRACE data gaps of 1 month about each 162days as well as a—hopefully—limited gap between GRACE and the GRACE follow-on mission over West Africa. The method presented could also be used to generate a near real-time GRACE forecast over the regions that exhibit strong teleconnections

Potential drought stress in a Swiss mountain catchment-Ensemble forecasting of high mountain soil moisture reveals a drastic decrease, despite major uncertainties

Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations