Revisiting global trends in freshwater insect biodiversity: A reply

Abstract Jähnig et al. make some useful points regarding the conclusions that can be drawn from our meta‐analysis; however, some issues require clarification. First, we never suggested that there was a globally increasing trend of freshwater insect abundances, but only spoke of an average increasing trend in the available data. We also did not suggest that freshwater quality has improved globally, but rather that documented improvements in water quality can explain at least some of the trends we observed. Second, as we acknowledged, our data are not a representative set of freshwater ecosystems around the world, but they are what is currently accessible. Third, there is indeed no doubt that changes in abundance or biomass need not correlate with changes in other aspects of biodiversity, such as species richness or functional composition. Our analysis was specifically focused on trends in community abundance/biomass because it has been the subject of recent study and speculation, and is a widely available metric in long‐term studies. To better understand the recent changes in freshwater insect assemblages, we encourage freshwater ecologists to further open their troves of data from countless long‐term monitoring schemes so that larger and more comprehensive syntheses can be undertaken

Global change impacts on bird biodiversity in South Asia: potential effects of future land-use and climate change on avian species richness in Pakistan

Evaluating the impact of future changes in land-use and climate on species communities, especially species richness, is one of the most important challenges of current research in ecology and conservation. The impact of environmental changes on species richness depends on its sensitivity (i.e., how strongly a given level of change influences the ecological community) and its exposure (i.e., the amount of change that occurs). To examine the sensitivity, exposure, and potential impact of future environmental conditions on bird communities, we compiled data on bird species richness for Pakistan—a neglected region in macro- or country-scale studies. Since bird species richness strongly varies across seasons due to the seasonal occurrence of migratory species in winter, we compared both wintering (migratory plus resident species) and breeding (resident species only) bird richness. We found breeding and wintering species richness to be sensitive to temperature, precipitation and rainfed cropland by being positively related to these factors. Exposure varied regionally, with projected temperature changes being most profound in northern regions while the strongest projected precipitation changes occurred in central and southern regions. The projected impact of future environmental change were highly heterogeneous across the country and differed between the wintering and breeding communities. Overall, the most negatively impacted region was projected to be the Khyber Pakhtunkha province in the North of Pakistan, due to reductions in precipitation and rainfed cropland, resulting in a projected negative impact, especially on wintering species richness. By highlighting the regional and seasonal bird communities most at risk, our findings provide useful information for policy makers to help devise new policies for mitigating negative impacts of future environmental changes on birds within Pakistan

On the trade-off between accuracy and spatial resolution when estimating species occupancy from geographically biased samples

Species occupancy is often defined as the proportion of areal units (sites) in a landscape that the focal species occupies, but it is usually estimated from the subset of sites that have been sampled. Assuming no measurement error, we show that three quantities–the degree of sampling bias (in terms of site selection), the proportion of sites that have been sampled and the variability of true occupancy across sites–determine the extent to which a sample-based estimate of occupancy differs from its true value across the wider landscape. That these are the only three quantities (measurement error notwithstanding) to affect the accuracy of estimates of species occupancy is the fundamental insight of the “Meng equation”, an algebraic re-expression of statistical error. We use simulations to show how each of the three quantities vary with the spatial resolution of the analysis and that absolute estimation error is lower at coarser resolutions. Absolute error scales similarly with resolution regardless of the size and clustering of the virtual species’ distribution. Finely resolved estimates of species occupancy have the potential to be more useful than coarse ones, but this potential is only realised if the estimates are at least reasonably accurate. Consequently, wherever there is the potential for sampling bias, there is a trade-off between spatial resolution and accuracy, and the Meng equation provides a theoretical framework in which analysts can consider the balance between the two. An obvious next step is to consider the implications of the Meng equation for estimating a time trend in species occupancy, where it is the confounding of error and true change that is of most interest

Widespread decline in Central European plant diversity across six decades

Abstract Based on plant occurrence data covering all parts of Germany, we investigated changes in the distribution of 2136 plant species between 1960 and 2017. We analyzed 29 million occurrence records over an area of ~350,000 km 2 on a 5 × 5 km grid using temporal and spatiotemporal models and accounting for sampling bias. Since the 1960s, more than 70% of investigated plant species showed declines in nationwide occurrence. Archaeophytes (species introduced before 1492) most strongly declined but also native plant species experienced severe declines. In contrast, neophytes (species introduced after 1492) increased in their nationwide occurrence but not homogeneously throughout the country. Our analysis suggests that the strongest declines in native species already happened in the 1960s–1980s, a time frame in which often few data exist. Increases in neophytic species were strongest in the 1990s and 2010s. Overall, the increase in neophytes did not compensate for the loss of other species, resulting in a decrease in mean grid cell species richness of −1.9% per decade. The decline in plant biodiversity is a widespread phenomenon occurring in different habitats and geographic regions. It is likely that this decline has major repercussions on ecosystem functioning and overall biodiversity, potentially with cascading effects across trophic levels. The approach used in this study is transferable to other large‐scale trend analyses using heterogeneous occurrence data

Fitness and fur colouration. Testing the camouflage and thermoregulation hypotheses in an Arctic mammal

Selection for crypsis has been recognized as an important ecological driver of animal colouration, whereas the relative importance of thermoregulation is more contentious with mixed empirical support. A potential thermal advantage of darker individuals has been observed in a wide range of animal species. Arctic animals that exhibit colour polymorphisms and undergo seasonal colour moults are interesting study subjects for testing the two alternative hypotheses: demographic performance of different colour morphs might be differentially affected by snow cover with a cryptic advantage for lighter morphs, or conversely by winter temperature with a thermal advantage for darker morphs. In this study, we explored whether camouflage and thermoregulation might explain differences in reproduction and survival between the white and blue colour morphs of the Arctic fox Vulpes lagopus under natural conditions. Juvenile and adult survival, breeding propensity and litter size were measured for 798 captive-bred and released or wild-born Arctic foxes monitored during an 11-year period (2007–2017) in two subpopulations in south-central Norway. We investigated the proportion of the two colour morphs and compared their demographic performance in relation to spatial variation in duration of snow cover, onset of snow season and winter temperatures. After population re-establishment, a higher proportion of blue individuals was observed among wild-born Arctic foxes compared to the proportion of blue foxes released from the captive population. Our field study provides the first evidence for an effect of colour morph on the reproductive performance of Arctic foxes under natural conditions, with a higher breeding propensity of the blue morph compared to the white one. Performance of the two colour morphs was not differentially affected by the climatic variables, except for juvenile survival. Blue morph juveniles showed a tendency for higher survival under colder winter temperatures but lower survival under warmer temperatures compared to white morph juveniles. Overall, our findings do not consistently support predictions of the camouflage or the thermoregulation hypotheses. The higher success of blue foxes suggests an advantage of the dark morph not directly related to disruptive selection by crypsis or thermoregulation. Our results rather point to physiological adaptations and behavioural traits not necessarily connected to thermoregulation, such as stress response, immune function, sexual behaviour and aggressiveness. Our findings highlight the need to explore the potential role of genetic linkage or pleiotropy in influencing the fitness of white and blue Arctic foxes as well as other species with colour polymorphisms

Insect biomass shows a stronger decrease than species richness along urban gradients

1. Anthropogenic land cover change is a major driver of biodiversity loss, with urbanisation and farmland practices responsible for some of the most drastic modifications of natural habitats. The relative importance of different land covers for shaping insect communities, however, is unclear. 2. This study examines the effect of urban and farmland covers, along with land cover heterogeneity, at a landscape scale on species richness, evenness and biomass of flying insects using citizen science carnet sampling across Denmark. 3. Increasing urban cover had a negative effect on insect richness but an even stronger negative effect on biomass. Increased land cover heterogeneity did not mitigate the negative effect of urban cover. Insect assemblages also became more even with increased urban cover. Farmland cover had no significant effect on insect richness, evenness or biomass. 4. Based on our findings, the urban cover has a strong negative impact on insect communities, indicating that urbanisation could contribute to insect declines. Moreover, our findings indicate that insect loss occurs more through loss of biomass than loss of species, which may affect the ecosystem-level consequences of urbanisation

Citizen science for assessing pesticide impacts in agricultural streams

The majority of central European streams are in poor ecological condition. Pesticide inputs from terrestrial habitats present a key threat to sensitive insects in streams. Both standardized stream monitoring data and societal support are needed to conserve and restore freshwater habitats. Citizen science (CS) offers potential to complement international freshwater monitoring while it is often viewed critically due to concerns about data accuracy. Here, we developed a CS program based on the Water Framework Directive that enables citizen scientists to provide data on stream hydromorphology, physicochemical status and benthic macroinvertebrates to apply the trait-based bio-indicator SPEARpesticides for pesticide exposure. We compared CS monitoring data with professional data across 28 central German stream sites and could show that both CS and professional monitoring identified a similar average proportion of pesticide-sensitive macroinvertebrate taxa per stream site (20 %). CS data were highly correlated to the professional data for both stream hydromorphology and SPEARpesticides (r = 0.72 and 0.76). To assess the extent to which CS macroinvertebrate data can indicate pesticide exposure, we tested the relationship of CS generated SPEARpesticides values and measured pesticide concentrations at 21 stream sites, and found a fair correlation similar to professional results. We conclude that given appropriate training and support, citizen scientists can generate valid data on the ecological status and pesticide contamination of streams. By complementing official monitoring, data from well-managed CS programs can advance freshwater science and enhance the implementation of freshwater conservation goals

Disproportionate declines of formerly abundant species underlie insect loss

Studies have reported widespread declines in terrestrial insect abundances in recent years1,2,3,4, but trends in other biodiversity metrics are less clear-cut5,6,7. Here we examined long-term trends in 923 terrestrial insect assemblages monitored in 106 studies, and found concomitant declines in abundance and species richness. For studies that were resolved to species level (551 sites in 57 studies), we observed a decline in the number of initially abundant species through time, but not in the number of very rare species. At the population level, we found that species that were most abundant at the start of the time series showed the strongest average declines (corrected for regression-to-the-mean effects). Rarer species were, on average, also declining, but these were offset by increases of other species. Our results suggest that the observed decreases in total insect abundance2 can mostly be explained by widespread declines of formerly abundant species. This counters the common narrative that biodiversity loss is mostly characterized by declines of rare species8,9. Although our results suggest that fundamental changes are occurring in insect assemblages, it is important to recognize that they represent only trends from those locations for which sufficient long-term data are available. Nevertheless, given the importance of abundant species in ecosystems10, their general declines are likely to have broad repercussions for food webs and ecosystem functioning

The direct drivers of recent global anthropogenic biodiversity loss

Effective policies to halt biodiversity loss require knowing which anthropogenic drivers are the most important direct causes. Whereas previous knowledge has been limited in scope and rigor, here we statistically synthesize empirical comparisons of recent driver impacts found through a wide-ranging review. We show that land/sea use change has been the dominant direct driver of recent biodiversity loss worldwide. Direct exploitation of natural resources ranks second and pollution third; climate change and invasive alien species have been significantly less important than the top two drivers. The oceans, where direct exploitation and climate change dominate, have a different driver hierarchy from land and fresh water. It also varies among types of biodiversity indicators. For example, climate change is a more important driver of community composition change than of changes in species populations. Stopping global biodiversity loss requires policies and actions to tackle all the major drivers and their interactions, not some of them in isolation.Fil: Jaureguiberry, Pedro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal; ArgentinaFil: Titeux, Nicolas. German Centre For Integrative Biodiversity Research (idiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig; Alemania. Luxembourg Institute Of Science And Technology; Luxemburgo. Helmholtz Zentrum Für Umweltforschung; AlemaniaFil: Wiemers, Martin. Helmholtz Zentrum Für Umweltforschung; Alemania. Senckenberg Gesellschaft Für Naturforschung; AlemaniaFil: Bowler, Diana E.. German Centre For Integrative Biodiversity Research (idiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig; Alemania. Universitat Jena; Alemania. Helmholtz Zentrum Für Umweltforschung; AlemaniaFil: Coscieme, Luca. Hot Or Cool Institute; AlemaniaFil: Golden, Abigail S.. University of Washington; Estados Unidos. German Centre For Integrative Biodiversity Research (idiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig; Alemania. Department Of Marine And Coastal Sciences; Estados UnidosFil: Guerra, Carlos A.. German Centre For Integrative Biodiversity Research (idiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig; Alemania. Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg; AlemaniaFil: Jacob, Ute. Universität Oldenburg; Alemania. Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum Für Polar- Und Meeresforschung; AlemaniaFil: Takahashi, Yasuo. Institute For Global Environmental Strategies; JapónFil: Settele, Josef. German Centre For Integrative Biodiversity Research (idiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig; Alemania. University Of The Philippines, Los Baños; Filipinas. Helmholtz Zentrum Für Umweltforschung; AlemaniaFil: Díaz, Sandra Myrna. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal; ArgentinaFil: Molnár, Zsolt. Institute Of Ecology And Botany; HungríaFil: Purvis, Andy. Imperial College London; Reino Unido. Natural History Museum; Reino Unid

Mapping human pressures on biodiversity across the planet uncovers anthropogenic threat complexes

Abstract Climate change and other anthropogenic drivers of biodiversity change are unequally distributed across the world. Overlap in the distributions of different drivers have important implications for biodiversity change attribution and the potential for interactive effects. However, the spatial relationships among different drivers and whether they differ between the terrestrial and marine realm has yet to be examined. We compiled global gridded datasets on climate change, land-use, resource exploitation, pollution, alien species potential and human population density. We used multivariate statistics to examine the spatial relationships among the drivers and to characterize the typical combinations of drivers experienced by different regions of the world. We found stronger positive correlations among drivers in the terrestrial than in the marine realm, leading to areas with high intensities of multiple drivers on land. Climate change tended to be negatively correlated with other drivers in the terrestrial realm (e.g. in the tundra and boreal forest with high climate change but low human use and pollution), whereas the opposite was true in the marine realm (e.g. in the Indo-Pacific with high climate change and high fishing). We show that different regions of the world can be defined by Anthropogenic Threat Complexes (ATCs), distinguished by different sets of drivers with varying intensities. We identify 11 ATCs that can be used to test hypotheses about patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem change, especially about the joint effects of multiple drivers. Our global analysis highlights the broad conservation priorities needed to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic change, with different priorities emerging on land and in the ocean, and in different parts of the world.Peer reviewe