Estimating accruals models in Europe: industry-based approaches versus a data-driven approach

Accruals models have been estimated using a variety of approaches, but the industry-based cross-sectional approach currently seems to be the standard method. This estimation approach cannot be easily used in the vast majority of European countries where several industry groups do not have sufficient yearly observations. Using data from France, Germany, Italy and the UK, we artificially induce earnings manipulations to investigate how the ability to detect those manipulations through accruals models is affected by the use of different industry classifications. Moreover, we propose an alternative estimation approach based on a data-driven statistical procedure that provides an optimal choice of estimation samples. Our analyses show that enlarging the industry classification and/or pooling observations across years reduces the probability of discovering earnings manipulations but allows for the estimation of abnormal accruals (AA) for more firms. The data-driven approach, however, in most cases outperforms the industry-based estimation approaches without sample attrition. This result suggests that there is still ample room for improving the accruals model estimation process for capital markets of European countries. Furthermore, the analysis documents which accruals model outperforms the others in each of the four countries and the probabilities to detect earning management in a high variety of circumstances

Test of Four Colon Cancer Risk-Scores in Formalin Fixed Paraffin Embedded Microarray Gene Expression Data

Background Prognosis prediction for resected primary colon cancer is based on the T-stage Node Metastasis (TNM) staging system. We investigated if four well-documented gene expression risk scores can improve patient stratification. Methods Microarray-based versions of risk-scores were applied to a large independent cohort of 688 stage II/III tumors from the PETACC-3 trial. Prognostic value for relapse-free survival (RFS), survival after relapse (SAR), and overall survival (OS) was assessed by regression analysis. To assess improvement over a reference, prognostic model was assessed with the area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. All statistical tests were two-sided, except the AUC increase. Results All four risk scores (RSs) showed a statistically significant association (single-test, P < .0167) with OS or RFS in univariate models, but with HRs below 1.38 per interquartile range. Three scores were predictors of shorter RFS, one of shorter SAR. Each RS could only marginally improve an RFS or OS model with the known factors T-stage, N-stage, and microsatellite instability (MSI) status (AUC gains < 0.025 units). The pairwise interscore discordance was never high (maximal Spearman correlation = 0.563) A combined score showed a trend to higher prognostic value and higher AUC increase for OS (HR = 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.44 to 2.10, P < .001, AUC from 0.6918 to 0.7321) and RFS (HR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.33 to 1.84, P < .001, AUC from 0.6723 to 0.6945) than any single score. Conclusions The four tested gene expression-based risk scores provide prognostic information but contribute only marginally to improving models based on established risk factors. A combination of the risk scores might provide more robust information. Predictors of RFS and SAR might need to be differen

Genome-wide association study identifies four novel loci associated with Alzheimer's endophenotypes and disease modifiers

More than 20 genetic loci have been associated with risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD), but reported genome-wide significant loci do not account for all the estimated heritability and provide little information about underlying biological mechanisms. Genetic studies using intermediate quantitative traits such as biomarkers, or endophenotypes, benefit from increased statistical power to identify variants that may not pass the stringent multiple test correction in case-control studies. Endophenotypes also contain additional information helpful for identifying variants and genes associated with other aspects of disease, such as rate of progression or onset, and provide context to interpret the results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS). We conducted GWAS of amyloid beta (Aβ42), tau, and phosphorylated tau (ptau181) levels in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) from 3146 participants across nine studies to identify novel variants associated with AD. Five genome-wide significant loci (two novel) were associated with ptau181, including loci that have also been associated with AD risk or brain-related phenotypes. Two novel loci associated with Aβ42 near GLIS1 on 1p32.3 (β = -0.059, P = 2.08 × 10-8) and within SERPINB1 on 6p25 (β = -0.025, P = 1.72 × 10-8) were also associated with AD risk (GLIS1: OR = 1.105, P = 3.43 × 10-2), disease progression (GLIS1: β = 0.277, P = 1.92 × 10-2), and age at onset (SERPINB1: β = 0.043, P = 4.62 × 10-3). Bioinformatics indicate that the intronic SERPINB1 variant (rs316341) affects expression of SERPINB1 in various tissues, including the hippocampus, suggesting that SERPINB1 influences AD through an Aβ-associated mechanism. Analyses of known AD risk loci suggest CLU and FERMT2 may influence CSF Aβ42 (P = 0.001 and P = 0.009, respectively) and the INPP5D locus may affect ptau181 levels (P = 0.009); larger studies are necessary to verify these results. Together the findings from this study can be used to inform future AD studies

A common haplotype lowers PU.1 expression in myeloid cells and delays onset of Alzheimer's disease

A genome-wide survival analysis of 14,406 Alzheimer's disease (AD) cases and 25,849 controls identified eight previously reported AD risk loci and 14 novel loci associated with age at onset. Linkage disequilibrium score regression of 220 cell types implicated the regulation of myeloid gene expression in AD risk. The minor allele of rs1057233 (G), within the previously reported CELF1 AD risk locus, showed association with delayed AD onset and lower expression of SPI1 in monocytes and macrophages. SPI1 encodes PU.1, a transcription factor critical for myeloid cell development and function. AD heritability was enriched within the PU.1 cistrome, implicating a myeloid PU.1 target gene network in AD. Finally, experimentally altered PU.1 levels affected the expression of mouse orthologs of many AD risk genes and the phagocytic activity of mouse microglial cells. Our results suggest that lower SPI1 expression reduces AD risk by regulating myeloid gene expression and cell function

Unchain the code: how to ease quality control in research, tips or requirements?

The importance of responsible conduct in research is well understood, and is rightfully receiving increasing attention in the last years, both from the scientific community itself and from governmental agencies, which found research based on scientific production, which is mainly measured by the amount and quality of published papers

Estimating accruals models in Europe: industry-based approaches versus a data-driven approach

International audienceIn the 5th tale of the 9th Night from The Pleasant Nights (1553), the evangelical reference is utterly explicit, regarding a scheme used by people of Bergamo against learned Florentines. If we wonder to what extent the exhibited paulinian reference applies to the tale, a detour towards the ridiculous pedants on stage is necessary. We will also try to understand how Straparola manages to combine three components in this tale—two of which have a biblical echo— and how he renews them : namely, (1) the victory of the weak over the strong ; (2) the humiliation of overconfident people and the paradoxical superiority of the common man over the learned one ; (3) a dispute engaged by two rival cities.Dans la fable IX, 5 des Facétieuses Nuits (Le Piacevoli Notti, 1553), la référence évangélique est explicite à propos d’un bon tour joué par les Bergamasques à des Florentins érudits. Se demander dans quelle mesure la référence paulinienne alléguée s’applique vraiment à l’histoire oblige à un détour du côté des pédants ridicules au théâtre. Ce faisant, nous étudierons la manière dont Straparola articule dans ce conte trois motifs, dont deux ont des résonances bibliques, et comment il les renouvelle : à savoir (1) la victoire du faible sur le fort ; (2) l’humiliation de l’arrogant et la supériorité paradoxale du simple sur le savant ; (3) la compétition entre cités sous la forme d’une joute oratoire