Numerical modelling of post-seismic rupture propagation after the Sumatra 26.12.2004 earthquake constrained by GRACE gravity data

In the last decades, the development of the surface and satellite geodetic and geophysical observations brought a new insights into the seismic cycle, documenting new features of inter-, co-, and post-seismic processes. In particular since 2002 satellite mission GRACE provides monthly models of the global gravity field with unprecedented accuracy showing temporal variations of the Earth's gravity field, including those caused by mass redistribution associated with earthquake processes. When combined with GPS measurements, these new data have allowed to assess the relative importance of afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation after the Sumatra 26.12.2004 earthquake. Indeed the observed post-seismic crustal displacements were fitted well by a viscoelastic relaxation model assuming Burgers body rheology for the asthenosphere (60-220 km deep) with a transient viscosity as low as 4× 1017 Pas and constant∼1019 Pas steady state viscosity in the 60-660-km depth range. However, even the low-viscosity asthenosphere provides the amplitude of strain which gravity effect does not exceed 50 per cent of the GRACE gravity variations, thus additional localized slip of about 1 m was suggested at downdip extension of the coseismic rupture. Post-seismic slip at coseismic rupture or its downdip extension has been suggested by several authors but the mechanism of the post-seismic fault propagation has never been investigated numerically. Depth and size of localized slip area as well as rate and time decay during the post-seismic stage were either assigned a priory or estimated by fitting real geodesy or gravity data. In this paper we investigate post-seismic rupture propagation by modelling two consequent stages. First, we run a long-term, geodynamic simulation to self-consistently produce the initial stress and temperature distribution. At the second stage, we simulate a seismic cycle using results of the first step as initial conditions. The second short-term simulation involves three substeps, including additional stress accumulation after part of the subduction channel was locked; spontaneous coseismic slip; formation and development of damage zones producing afterslip. During the last substep post-seismic stress leads to gradual∼1 m slip localized at three faults around∼100-km downdip extension of the coseismic rupture. We used the displacement field caused by the slip to calculate pressure and density variations and to simulate gravity field variations. Wavelength of calculated gravity anomaly fits well to that of the real data and its amplitude provides about 60 per cent of the observed GRACE anomaly. Importantly, the surface displacements caused by the estimated afterslip are much smaller than those registered by GPS networks. As a result cumulative effect of Burgers rheology viscoelastic relaxation (which explains measured GPS displacements and about a half of gravity variations) plus post-seismic slip predicted by damage rheology model (which causes much smaller surface displacements but provides another half of the GRACE gravity variations) fits well to both sets of the real data. Hence, the presented numerical modelling based on damage rheology supports the process of post-seismic downdip rupture propagation previously hypothesized from the GRACE gravity dat

Hybrid and Conventional Mesons in the Flux Tube Model: Numerical Studies and their Phenomenological Implications

We present results from analytical and numerical studies of a flux tube model of hybrid mesons. Our numerical results use a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm and so improve on previous analytical treatments, which assumed small flux tube oscillations and an adiabatic separation of quark and flux tube motion. We find that the small oscillation approximation is inappropriate for typical hadrons and that the hybrid mass is underestimated by the adiabatic approximation. For physical parameters in the ``one-bead" flux tube model we estimate the lightest hybrid masses (${}_\Lambda L = {}_1 P$ states) to be 1.8-1.9~GeV for $u\bar u$ hybrids, 2.1-2.2~GeV for $s\bar s$ and 4.1-4.2~GeV for $c\bar c$. We also determine masses of conventional $q\bar q$ mesons with $L=0$ to $L=3$ in this model, and confirm good agreement with experimental $J$-averaged multiplet masses. Mass estimates are also given for hybrids with higher orbital and flux-tube excitations. The gap from the lightest hybrid level (${}_1P$) to the first hybrid orbital excitation (${}_1D$) is predicted to be $\approx 0.4$~GeV for light quarks $(q=u,d)$ and $\approx 0.3$~GeV for $q=c$. Both ${}_1P$ and ${}_1D$ hybrid multiplets contain the exotics $1^{-+}$ and $2^{+-}$; in addition the ${}_1P$ has a $0^{+-}$ and the ${}_1D$ contains a $3^{-+}$. Hybrid mesons with doubly-excited flux tubes are also considered. The implications of our results for spectroscopy are discussed, with emphasis on charmonium hybrids, which may be accessible at facilities such as BEPC, KEK, a Tau-Charm Factory, and in $\psi$ production at hadron colliders.Comment: 39 pages of RevTex. Figures available via anonymous ftp at ftp://compsci.cas.vanderbilt.edu/QSM/bcsfig1.ps and /QSM/bcsfig6.p

Mossbauer study on the gamma-radiolysis of tetralithium iron(III) trioxalate chloride nonahydrate

The final product of the gamma-radiolysis of tetralithium iron (III) trioxalate chloride nonahydrate has been identified by Mossbauer spectroscopy as FeC2O4 .2H2O. The radiolytic decomposition proceeds as a first-order process due to the original compound depletion and to the radiolytic stability of the ferrous compound. Chemical calibration of the relative peaks areas of the two iron species indicates that the corresponding f-factors ratio is unaffected by the radiolysis

The Impact on EOP Predictions of AAM Forecasts from the ECMWF and NCEP

Predictions of UT1 are improved when dynamical model-based forecasts of the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) are used as proxy length-of-day (LOD) forecasts (Freedman et al. 1994; Johnson et al. 2005). For example, the accuracy of JPL's predictions of UT1 are improved by nearly a factor of 2 when AAM forecast data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are used. Given the importance of AAM forecasts on the accuracy of UT1 predictions, other sources of AAM forecasts should be sought. Here, the angular momentum of the forecasted wind fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are computed and used to predict UT1. The results are compared to those obtained using NCEP forecasts

A Prototype Neural-network To Perform Early Warning in Nuclear-power-plant

The paper presents some results of research work in the field of artificial neural networks (ANN) applied to nuclear safety. It shows how a priori knowledge in the form of qualitative physical reasoning can provide a powerful basis for designing a set of ANN-based detection subsystems. In particular, it explains how each ANN is in charge of modelling a physical relationship between a set of state variables (thermal balance, mass balance, etc.) by trying to predict one particular variable from other ones; then, the residual signal, defined by the difference between the predicted value and the real one is used to decide whether abnormalities are present. As far as the decision logic is concerned, the paper describes how robustness can be improved by adequate filters on the residuals. The proposed approach is then validated on data coming from a fullscope simulator of one of the Belgian nuclear power units: the neural-based detection system is trained on ''normal'' scenarios and is able, after learning, to detect reliably and rapidly most of the incidental situations chosen as tests