Coupled flow accumulation and atmospheric blocking govern flood duration

We present a physically based Bayesian network model for inference and prediction of flood duration that allows for a deeper understanding of the nexus of antecedent flow regime, atmospheric blocking, and moisture transport/release mechanisms. Distinct scaling factors at the land surface and regional atmospheric levels are unraveled using this Bayesian network model. Land surface scaling explains the variability in flood duration as a function of cumulative exceedance index, a new measure that represents the evolution of the flood in the basin. Dynamic atmospheric scaling explains the cumulative exceedance index using the interaction between atmospheric blocking system and the synergistic model of wind divergence and atmospheric water vapor. Our findings underline that the synergy between a large persistent low-pressure blocking system and a higher rate of divergent wind often triggers a long-duration flood, even in the presence of moderate moisture supply in the atmosphere. This condition in turn causes an extremely long-duration flood if the basin-wide cumulative flow prior to the flood event was already high. Thus, this new land-atmospheric interaction framework integrates regional flood duration scaling and dynamic atmospheric scaling to enable the coupling of ‘horizontal’ (for example, streamflow accumulation inside the basin) and ‘vertical’ flow of information (for example, interrelated land and ocean-atmosphere interactions), providing an improved understanding of the critical forcing of regional hydroclimatic systems. This Bayesian model approach is applied to the Missouri River Basin, which has the largest system of reservoirs in the United States. Our predictive model can aid in decision support systems for the protection of national infrastructure against long-duration flood events.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Season-ahead forecasting of water storage and irrigation requirements – an application to the southwest monsoon in India

Water risk management is a ubiquitous challenge faced by stakeholders in the water or agricultural sector. We present a methodological framework for forecasting water storage requirements and present an application of this methodology to risk assessment in India. The application focused on forecasting crop water stress for potatoes grown during the monsoon season in the Satara district of Maharashtra. Pre-season large-scale climate predictors used to forecast water stress were selected based on an exhaustive search method that evaluates for highest ranked probability skill score and lowest root-mean-squared error in a leave-one-out cross-validation mode. Adaptive forecasts were made in the years 2001 to 2013 using the identified predictors and a non-parametric k-nearest neighbors approach. The accuracy of the adaptive forecasts (2001–2013) was judged based on directional concordance and contingency metrics such as hit/miss rate and false alarms. Based on these criteria, our forecasts were correct 9 out of 13 times, with two misses and two false alarms. The results of these drought forecasts were compared with precipitation forecasts from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). We assert that it is necessary to couple informative water stress indices with an effective forecasting methodology to maximize the utility of such indices, thereby optimizing water management decisions.</p

Is an Epic Pluvial Masking the Water Insecurity of the Greater New York City Region?

Six water emergencies have occurred since 1981 for the New York City (NYC) region despite the following: 1) its perhumid climate, 2) substantial conservation of water since 1979, and 3) meteorological data showing little severe or extreme drought since 1970. This study reconstructs 472 years of moisture availability for the NYC watershed to place these emergencies in long-term hydroclimatic context. Using nested reconstruction techniques, 32 tree-ring chronologies comprised of 12 species account for up to 66.2% of the average May–August Palmer drought severity index. Verification statistics indicate good statistical skill from 1531 to 2003. The use of multiple tree species, including rarely used species that can sometimes occur on mesic sites like Liriodendron tulipifera, Betula lenta, and Carya spp., seems to aid reconstruction skill. Importantly, the reconstruction captures pluvial events in the instrumental record nearly as well as drought events and is significantly correlated to precipitation over much of the northeastern United States. While the mid-1960s drought is a severe drought in the context of the new reconstruction, the region experienced repeated droughts of similar intensity, but greater duration during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. The full record reveals a trend toward more pluvial conditions since ca. 1800 that is accentuated by an unprecedented 43-yr pluvial event that continues through 2011. In the context of the current pluvial, decreasing water usage, but increasing extra-urban pressures, it appears that the water supply system for the greater NYC region could be severely stressed if the current water boom shifts toward hydroclimatic regimes like the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries

Process/economic strategy for upgrading shale oil

A prime difficulty with the production of transportation fuels from Western US shale oil is the high heteroatom content, especially nitrogen. Nitrogen containing molecules are known to have high market value for non-fuel uses. Selective extraction of nitrogen-containing molecules from shale oil recovers these potentially valuable components while upgrading the remaining shale oil for refining to transportation fuels. A thermodynamically logical separation process sequence consisting of primarily distillation and liquid-liquid extraction has been shown effective in selective isolation of polar heteroatom-containing molecules. The polar fraction may be processed for the production of chemical intermediates and specialty chemicals of high value. Projected material balances show an overall product split of 80% refinery feed and 20% polar products. Based on product values and composition, a preliminary economic analysis yields 30% internal rate of return. A summary of the economic strategy, process results and promising products will be presented

Shale Oil Value Enhancement Research. Quarterly Report, December 1, 1994 - February 28, 1995

Objectives for the Quarter were: Perform six-stage extraction of total shale oil using the dual solvent system; complete modifications to the extraction unit to extract +400 `C fraction; conduct hydrodealkylation experiments on the shale oil fractions; complete cost and economic analysis for both schemes; and continue marketing efforts aimed at identifying additional majors as candidate partners for commercialization. Accomplishments for each task is described

Shale Oil Value Enhancement Research. Quarterly Report, June 1 - August 31, 1993

All tasks are on schedule, or ahead of schedule. Particular progress has been made in identifying industrial entities, commodities and specialty products of target interest for shale oil-derived products. There is clearly a major emphasis worldwide on new chemicals and shale oil-derived structures are similar to many of these chemicals of interest. Details of the mathematical modeling, programming and algorithm development have progressed with excellent results. Considerable effort will be required to interface these with the output of the gc/ms but we are receiving excellent support from Hewlett Packard in this regard. The ability to concentrate particularly valuable compounds with reasonable projected cost processes continues to show promise. In one system, a single-stage extraction recovered 87% of the total nitrogen in an extract representing only 33% of the fraction. Special attention is being paid to both nitrogen types and oxygen types. The raffinates from the polar solvent extractions will be evaluated for their oil and wax contents. All of the start-up infrastructure is now in place. Subcontracts have been initiated and equipment and supplies have been procured. We are now planning a major push to reach some general findings by early in 1994. From these findings, we will be prepared to focus on experimental verification of process design needed for the second program phase

Summary of the 2012 Inductive Pulsed Plasma Thruster Development and Testing Program

Inductive pulsed plasma thrusters are spacecraft propulsion devices in which energy is capacitively stored and then discharged through an inductive coil. While these devices have shown promise for operation at high efficiency on a range of propellants, many technical issues remain before they can be used in flight applications. A conical theta-pinch thruster geometry was fabricated and tested to investigate potential improvements in propellant utilization relative to more common, flat-plate planar coil designs. A capacitor charging system is used to permit repetitive discharging of thrusters at multiple cycles per second, with successful testing accomplished at a repetition-rate of 5 Hz at power levels of 0.9, 1.6, and 2.5 kW. The conical theta-pinch thruster geometry was tested at cone angles of 20deg, 38deg, and 60deg, with single-pulse operation at 500 J/pulse and repetitionrate operation with the 38deg model quantified through direct thrust measurement using a hanging pendulum thrust stand. A long-lifetime valve was designed and fabricated, and initial testing was performed to measure the valve response and quantify the leak rate at beginning-of-life. Subscale design and testing of a capacitor charging system required for operation on a spacecraft is reported, providing insights into the types of components needed in the circuit topology employed. On a spacecraft, this system would accept as input a lower voltage from the spacecraft DC bus and boost the output to the high voltage required to charge the capacitors of the thruster

Multimodal behavioral treatment of migraine: An Internet-administered, randomized, controlled trial

Introduction. Multimodal approaches in behavioral treatment have gained recent interest, with proven efficacy for migraine. The utility of the Internet has been demonstrated for behavioral treatment of headache disorders, but not specifically for migraine. The aim of the study was to develop and evaluate an Internet-based multimodal behavior treatment (MBT) program for migraine and to test hand massage treatment as an adjunct. Methods. Eighty-three adults, 58 women and 25 men, with at least two migraine attacks a month were recruited via advertisements. An MBT program aiming at improvements in life-style and stress coping was developed for this study and, together with a diary, adapted for use over the Internet. Participants were randomized to MBT with and without hand massage and to a control group, and were followed for 11 months. Questionnaires addressing issues of quality of life (PQ23) and depressive symptoms (MADRS-S) were used. Results. A 50%, or greater, reduction in migraine frequency was found in 40% and 42% of participants of the two groups receiving MBT (with and without hand massage, respectively), who statistically were significantly more improved than participants in the control group. No effect of hand massage was detected, and gender did not show any independent contribution to the effect in a multivariate analysis. Conclusions. MBT administered over the Internet appears feasible and effective in the treatment of migraine, but no effect of hand massage was found. For increased knowledge on long-term effects and the modes of action of the present MBT program, further studies are needed

Canagliflozin inhibits interleukin-1β-stimulated cytokine and chemokine secretion in vascular endothelial cells by AMP-activated protein kinase-dependent and -independent mechanisms

YesRecent clinical trials of the hypoglycaemic sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, which inhibit renal glucose reabsorption, have reported beneficial cardiovascular outcomes. Whether SGLT2 inhibitors directly affect cardiovascular tissues, however, remains unclear. We have previously reported that the SGLT2 inhibitor canagliflozin activates AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) in immortalised cell lines and murine hepatocytes. As AMPK has anti-inflammatory actions in vascular cells, we examined whether SGLT2 inhibitors attenuated inflammatory signalling in cultured human endothelial cells. Incubation with clinically-relevant concentrations of canagliflozin, but not empagliflozin or dapagliflozin activated AMPK and inhibited IL-1β-stimulated adhesion of pro-monocytic U937 cells and secretion of IL-6 and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1). Inhibition of MCP-1 secretion was attenuated by expression of dominant-negative AMPK and was mimicked by the direct AMPK activator, A769662. Stimulation of cells with either canagliflozin or A769662 had no effect on IL-1β-stimulated cell surface levels of adhesion molecules or nuclear factor-κB signalling. Despite these identical effects of canagliflozin and A769662, IL-1β-stimulated IL-6/MCP-1 mRNA was inhibited by canagliflozin, but not A769662, whereas IL-1β-stimulated c-jun N-terminal kinase phosphorylation was inhibited by A769662, but not canagliflozin. These data indicate that clinically-relevant canagliflozin concentrations directly inhibit endothelial pro-inflammatory chemokine/cytokine secretion by AMPK-dependent and -independent mechanisms without affecting early IL-1β signalling.Project Grant (PG/13/82/30483 to IPS and TMP) and PhD studentships (FS/16/55/32731 and FS/14/61/31284 to DB and AS) from the British Heart Foundation and an equipment grant (BDA11/0004309 to IPS and TMP) from Diabetes UK. OJK was supported by a Scholarship from the Iraqi Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research. TAA was supported by a Libyan Ministry of Education PhD Studentship

Restricted Morphological and Behavioral Abnormalities following Ablation of β-Actin in the Brain

The local translation of β-actin is one mechanism proposed to regulate spatially-restricted actin polymerization crucial for nearly all aspects of neuronal development and function. However, the physiological significance of localized β-actin translation in neurons has not yet been demonstrated in vivo. To investigate the role of β-actin in the mammalian central nervous system (CNS), we characterized brain structure and function in a CNS-specific β-actin knock-out mouse (CNS-ActbKO). β-actin was rapidly ablated in the embryonic mouse brain, but total actin levels were maintained through upregulation of other actin isoforms during development. CNS-ActbKO mice exhibited partial perinatal lethality while survivors presented with surprisingly restricted histological abnormalities localized to the hippocampus and cerebellum. These tissue morphology defects correlated with profound hyperactivity as well as cognitive and maternal behavior impairments. Finally, we also identified localized defects in axonal crossing of the corpus callosum in CNS-ActbKO mice. These restricted defects occurred despite the fact that primary neurons lacking β-actin in culture were morphologically normal. Altogether, we identified novel roles for β-actin in promoting complex CNS tissue architecture while also demonstrating that distinct functions for the ubiquitously expressed β-actin are surprisingly restricted in vivo