The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning

An already pressing need to evidence the effectiveness of futures and foresight tools has been further amplified by the coronavirus pandemic, which highlighted more mainstream tools’ difficulty with uncertainty. In light of this, the recent discussion in this journal on providing futures and foresight science with a stronger scientific basis is welcome. In this discussion critical realism has been proffered as a useful philosophical foundation and experiments a useful method for improving this field’s scientific basis. Yet, experiments seek to isolate specific causal effects through closure (i.e., by controlling for all extraneous factors) and this may cause it to jar with critical realism’s emphasis on uncertainty and openness. We therefore extend the recent discussion on improving the scientific basis of futures and foresight science by doing three things. Firstly, we elaborate on critical realism and why the experimental method may jar with it. Secondly, we explain why the distinction between a conceptual and a direct replication can help overcome this jarring, meaning experiments can still be a valuable research tool for a futures and foresight science underpinned by critical realism. Thirdly, we consider the appropriate unit of analysis for experiments on futures and foresight tools. In so doing, we situate the recent discussion on improving the scientific basis of futures and foresight science within the much longer running one on improving the scientific basis of business, management and strategy research more broadly. We use the case of scenario planning to illustrate our argument in relation to futures and foresight science

Mice lacking C1q or C3 show accelerated rejection of minor H disparate skin grafts and resistance to induction of tolerance

Complement activation is known to have deleterious effects on organ transplantation. On the other hand, the complement system is also known to have an important role in regulating immune responses. The balance between these two opposing effects is critical in the context of transplantation. Here, we report that female mice deficient in C1q (C1qa(−/−)) or C3 (C3(−/−)) reject male syngeneic grafts (HY incompatible) at an accelerated rate compared with WT mice. Intranasal HY peptide administration, which induces tolerance to syngeneic male grafts in WT mice, fails to induce tolerance in C1qa(−/−) or C3(−/−) mice. The rejection of the male grafts correlated with the presence of HY D(b)Uty-specific CD8(+) T cells. Consistent with this, peptide-treated C1qa(−/−) and C3(−/−) female mice rejecting male grafts exhibited more antigen-specific CD8(+)IFN-γ(+) and CD8(+)IL-10(+) cells compared with WT females. This suggests that accumulation of IFN-γ- and IL-10-producing T cells may play a key role in mediating the ongoing inflammatory process and graft rejection. Interestingly, within the tolerized male skin grafts of peptide-treated WT mice, IFN-γ, C1q and C3 mRNA levels were higher compared to control female grafts. These results suggest that C1q and C3 facilitate the induction of intranasal tolerance

ABSORPTION OF CONTROLLED RELEASE MORPHINE SULPHATE IN THE IMMEDIATE POSTOPERATIVE PERIOD

The absorption of morphine sulphate, given orally as a controlled release preparation, was studied in 10 patients who had undergone peripheral vascular surgery with a standard opioid-based general anaesthetic technique. Serum morphine concentrations were measured (high pressure liquid chromatography) every 2 h for the first 16 h after surgery and the results were strongly suggestive of a decrease in the rate of absorption of morphine in this situatio

Damage function for historic paper. Part I: Fitness for use

Background In heritage science literature and in preventive conservation practice, damage functions are used to model material behaviour and specifically damage (unacceptable change), as a result of the presence of a stressor over time. For such functions to be of use in the context of collection management, it is important to define a range of parameters, such as who the stakeholders are (e.g. the public, curators, researchers), the mode of use (e.g. display, storage, manual handling), the long-term planning horizon (i.e. when in the future it is deemed acceptable for an item to become damaged or unfit for use), and what the threshold of damage is, i.e. extent of physical change assessed as damage. Results In this paper, we explore the threshold of fitness for use for archival and library paper documents used for display or reading in the context of access in reading rooms by the general public. Change is considered in the context of discolouration and mechanical deterioration such as tears and missing pieces: forms of physical deterioration that accumulate with time in libraries and archives. We also explore whether the threshold fitness for use is defined differently for objects perceived to be of different value, and for different modes of use. The data were collected in a series of fitness-for-use workshops carried out with readers/visitors in heritage institutions using principles of Design of Experiments. Conclusions The results show that when no particular value is pre-assigned to an archival or library document, missing pieces influenced readers/visitors’ subjective judgements of fitness-for-use to a greater extent than did discolouration and tears (which had little or no influence). This finding was most apparent in the display context in comparison to the reading room context. The finding also best applied when readers/visitors were not given a value scenario (in comparison to when they were asked to think about the document having personal or historic value). It can be estimated that, in general, items become unfit when text is evidently missing. However, if the visitor/reader is prompted to think of a document in terms of its historic value, then change in a document has little impact on fitness for use

***TEST SUBMISSION*** BMJ-15: Acceptance within last 3 months (01/03/2020); Online publication within 12 months (10/12/2020); Embargo (10/09/2021) less than 12 months from pub date; VoR

From UAT Test publisher via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: accepted 2020-03-01, epub 2020-12-10Article version: VoRPublication status: PublishedAbstract: TEST: THIS IS A PUBLICATIONS ROUTER TEST SUBMISSION. Objectives: To quantify post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer (PCCRC) rates in England by using recent World Endoscopy Organisation guidelines, compare incidence among colonoscopy providers, and explore associated factors that could benefit from quality improvement initiatives. Design: Population based cohort study. Setting: National Health Service in England between 2005 and 2013. Population: All people undergoing colonoscopy and subsequently diagnosed as having colorectal cancer up to three years after their investigation (PCCRC-3yr). Main outcome measures: National trends in incidence of PCCRC (within 6-36 months of colonoscopy), univariable and multivariable analyses to explore factors associated with occurrence, and funnel plots to measure variation among providers. Results: The overall unadjusted PCCRC-3yr rate was 7.4% (9317/126 152), which decreased from 9.0% in 2005 to 6.5% in 2013 (P<0.01). Rates were lower for colonoscopies performed under the NHS bowel cancer screening programme (593/16 640, 3.6%), while they were higher for those conducted by non-NHS providers (187/2009, 9.3%). Rates were higher in women, in older age groups, and in people with inflammatory bowel disease or diverticular disease, in those with higher comorbidity scores, and in people with previous cancers. Substantial variation in rates among colonoscopy providers remained after adjustment for case mix. Conclusions: Wide variation exists in PCCRC-3yr rates across NHS colonoscopy providers in England. The lowest incidence was seen in colonoscopies performed under the NHS bowel cancer screening programme. Quality improvement initiatives are needed to address this variation in rates and prevent colorectal cancer by enabling earlier diagnosis, removing premalignant polyps, and therefore improving outcomes

Arene oxidation with malonoyl peroxides

Malonoyl peroxide 7, prepared in a single step from the commercially available diacid, is an effective reagent for the oxidation of aromatics. Reaction of an arene with peroxide 7 at room temperature leads to the corresponding protected phenol which can be unmasked by aminolysis. An ionic mechanism consistent with the experimental findings and supported by isotopic labeling, Hammett analysis, EPR investigations and reactivity profile studies is proposed

Caracterização de acessos de pimenta-do-reino com base em sistemas enzimáticos.

Setenta e oito acessos de pimenta-do-reino, incluindo algumas espécies silvestres foram submetidos à análise eletroforética de isoenzimas em gel de poliacrilamida, visando distinguir diferenças fenotípicas que auxiliem na discriminação e seleção dos acessos. Foram utilizados os sistemas enzimáticos SKDH, GOT, ACP, ACO, PGI, FUM, 6PGDH e G6PDH. O polimorfismo de isoenzimas foi avaliado pelo número de alozimas com diferentes mobilidades por sistema enzimático, pelas freqüências de alozimas dentro de cada sistema enzimático em relação ao total de bandas do sistema e pela análise da similaridade genética, com base na ausência e presença de bandas. Todos os sistemas enzimáticos utilizados tiveram boa resolução e definição de bandas, com ênfase para SKDH, 6PGDH, PGI e ACP. Em sua totalidade, os sistemas apresentaram polimorfismo capaz de caracterizar e identificar acessos ou grupos de pequeno número de acessos, sendo que o sistema GOT foi o que apresentou maior variabilidade de alozimas e de perfis; e o que apresentou menor variabilidade foi o sistema FUM, com três alozimas e quatro perfis. Cinqüenta e sete por cento das alozimas podem ser usadas para caracterizar e identificar clones ou grupos de clones. Cerca de 64% dos acessos analisados podem ser identificados por um a seis fenótipos individuais de sistemas enzimáticos. A análise da similaridade indicou os grupos G1, G2 e G3 como os mais divergentes da coleção, os quais são indicados para cruzamentos intraespecíficos e interespecíficos visando a obtenção de clones superiores.Título em inglês: Characterization of black pepper accessions using isozymes. Publicado também on-line

Emerging dietary patterns: impact on child health

What we eat today and how we decide to produce sufficient food to meet both demand and nutritional requirements will determine the availability, diversity and quality of diets for future generations. Acceptability and normalisation of new dietary patterns must be prioritised to the same extent as education on environmental sustainability and health, because these are important social levers. They can help to reduce the psychosocial barriers and anxieties often connected to the behaviour changes that are needed to transition away from the traditional Western eating habits that are now increasingly subject to critical scrutiny. Without understanding the motivations and facilitators to change eating habits (and then designing and amplifying solutions which make those changes attractive and compelling in the modern world) positive changes to young people’s health and their environment through better food will not come quickly enough to halt potentially catastrophic consequences for people and planet. Changing consumption is seen by experts as the most powerful lever compared to food waste reduction or more efficient food production methods and technological solutions. There is simply not enough on Earth to sustain the increase of intensification required to continue feeding a global population on its current trajectory with a diet so rich in animal produce. However, radical behaviour modification is challenging and therefore cross-sector, bold and perhaps unorthodox leadership is necessary to inspire alteration in the food system, which will have a knock-on effect in terms of changing food environments and therefore food perceptions, narratives and behaviours. There are no ‘quick fix’ solutions, but what is undeniable is that populations can only make effective shifts in dietary patterns if government and the food industry help them to make those changes. This requires budgetary investment in public health information and the implementation of policies that promote ways to eat healthily that are also affordable and environmentally sustainable. The aim is to offer food that tastes as good as it can be made to look so that uptake is maximised and the benefits are cumulative. The inevitable upheaval incurred by making any alteration to entrenched patterns of consumption that have been centuries in the making should not be underestimated, but carrying on as before is no longer credible nor desirable. The aim is to offer ‘nutritious’ food. ‘If we don’t take action, the collapse of our civilisations and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon’ Sir David Attenborough. This Report is our initial contribution to a conversation that has only just begun.It is unlikely to be the last