Moving towards a wave-resolved approach to forecasting mountain wave induced clear air turbulence

Mountain wave breaking in the lower stratosphere is one of the major causes of atmospheric turbulence encountered in commercial aviation, which in turn is the cause of most weather-related aircraft incidents. In the case of clear air turbulence (CAT), there are no visual clues and pilots are reliant on operational forecasts and reports from other aircraft. Traditionally mountain waves have been sub-grid-scale in global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, but recent developments in NWP mean that some forecast centres (e.g. the UK Met Office) are now producing operational global forecasts that resolve mountain wave activity explicitly, allowing predictions of mountain wave induced turbulence with greater accuracy and confidence than previously possible. Using a bespoke turbulent kinetic energy diagnostic, the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) is shown to produce useful forecasts of mountain CAT during three case studies over Greenland, and to outperform the current operational Met Office CAT prediction product (the World Area Forecast Centre (WAFC) London gridded CAT product) in doing so. In a long term, 17-month, verification, MetUM forecasts yield a turbulence prediction hit rate of 80% with an accompanying false alarm rate of under 40%. These skill scores are a considerable improvement on those reported for the mountain wave component of the WAFC product, although no direct comparison is available. The major implication of this work is that sophisticated global NWP models are now sufficiently advanced to provide skilful forecasts of mountain wave turbulence

Arene oxidation with malonoyl peroxides

Malonoyl peroxide 7, prepared in a single step from the commercially available diacid, is an effective reagent for the oxidation of aromatics. Reaction of an arene with peroxide 7 at room temperature leads to the corresponding protected phenol which can be unmasked by aminolysis. An ionic mechanism consistent with the experimental findings and supported by isotopic labeling, Hammett analysis, EPR investigations and reactivity profile studies is proposed

Emerging dietary patterns: impact on child health

What we eat today and how we decide to produce sufficient food to meet both demand and nutritional requirements will determine the availability, diversity and quality of diets for future generations. Acceptability and normalisation of new dietary patterns must be prioritised to the same extent as education on environmental sustainability and health, because these are important social levers. They can help to reduce the psychosocial barriers and anxieties often connected to the behaviour changes that are needed to transition away from the traditional Western eating habits that are now increasingly subject to critical scrutiny. Without understanding the motivations and facilitators to change eating habits (and then designing and amplifying solutions which make those changes attractive and compelling in the modern world) positive changes to young people’s health and their environment through better food will not come quickly enough to halt potentially catastrophic consequences for people and planet. Changing consumption is seen by experts as the most powerful lever compared to food waste reduction or more efficient food production methods and technological solutions. There is simply not enough on Earth to sustain the increase of intensification required to continue feeding a global population on its current trajectory with a diet so rich in animal produce. However, radical behaviour modification is challenging and therefore cross-sector, bold and perhaps unorthodox leadership is necessary to inspire alteration in the food system, which will have a knock-on effect in terms of changing food environments and therefore food perceptions, narratives and behaviours. There are no ‘quick fix’ solutions, but what is undeniable is that populations can only make effective shifts in dietary patterns if government and the food industry help them to make those changes. This requires budgetary investment in public health information and the implementation of policies that promote ways to eat healthily that are also affordable and environmentally sustainable. The aim is to offer food that tastes as good as it can be made to look so that uptake is maximised and the benefits are cumulative. The inevitable upheaval incurred by making any alteration to entrenched patterns of consumption that have been centuries in the making should not be underestimated, but carrying on as before is no longer credible nor desirable. The aim is to offer ‘nutritious’ food. ‘If we don’t take action, the collapse of our civilisations and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon’ Sir David Attenborough. This Report is our initial contribution to a conversation that has only just begun.It is unlikely to be the last

The leucine-rich repeat receptor kinase QSK1 is a novel regulator of PRR-RBOHD complex and is employed by the bacterial effector HopF2Pto_{Pto} to modulate plant immunity

Plants detect pathogens using cell-surface pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) like EFR and FLS2, which recognize bacterial EF-Tu and flagellin, respectively. These PRRs, belonging to the leucine-rich repeat receptor kinase (LRR-RK) family, activate the production of reactive oxygen species via the NADPH oxidase RBOHD. The PRR-RBOHD complex is tightly regulated to prevent unwarranted or exaggerated immune responses. However, certain pathogenic effectors can subvert these regulatory mechanisms, thereby suppressing plant immunity. To elucidate the intricate dynamics of the PRR-RBOHD complex, we conducted a comparative co-immunoprecipitation analysis using EFR, FLS2, and RBOHD. We identified QSK1, an LRR-RK, as a novel component of the PRR-RBOHD complex. QSK1 functions as a negative regulator of PRR-triggered immunity (PTI) by downregulating the abundance of FLS2 and EFR. QSK1 is targeted by the bacterial effector HopF2$_{Pto}$, a mono-ADP ribosyltransferase, resulting in the reduction of FLS2 and EFR levels through both transcriptional and transcription-independent pathways, thereby inhibiting PTI. Furthermore, HopF2$_{Pto}$ reduces transcript levels of PROSCOOP genes encoding important stress-regulated phytocytokines and their receptor MIK2. Importantly, HopF2Pto requires QSK1 for its accumulation and virulence functions within plants. In summary, our results provide novel insights into the mechanism by which HopF2$_{Pto}$ employs QSK1 to desensitize plants to pathogen attack. One Sentence Summary: QSK1, a novel component in the plant immune receptor complex, downregulates these receptors and phytocytokines, and is exploited by bacterial effector HopF2$_{Pto}$ to desensitize plants to pathogen attack

Poland's 2011 Online Election Campaign: New Tools, New Professionalism, New Ways to Win Votes

This article analyzes the use of the online environment within the context of the Polish parliamentary election of 2011. Using traditional methods of content analysis, we find that parties tend to adhere to a professionalized model of campaigning, and adapting online tools to suit the objectives of the campaign. There also appears to be a recognition that their most likely visitors to these online presences would be converts, and so they attempt to mobilize supporters rather than convert browsers. New parties and candidates are more likely to target browsers, with the latter offering a more personalized experience to online visitors. Importantly, when analyzing the outcome of the contest, we find that being online matters for candidates when controlling for all other variables. Equally, the reach the candidate has, which may well influence their vote share, is dependent on offering a more personalized, representational image and having a frequently updated online presence that should encourage repeat visits. Cumulatively, we suggest the future of online campaigning must not only focus on having a presence, but on using it in a way that appeals to a range of visitors, encouraging repeat visits, and that this strategy could have a positive impact on election outcomes. © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

CDD: a Conserved Domain Database for the functional annotation of proteins

NCBI’s Conserved Domain Database (CDD) is a resource for the annotation of protein sequences with the location of conserved domain footprints, and functional sites inferred from these footprints. CDD includes manually curated domain models that make use of protein 3D structure to refine domain models and provide insights into sequence/structure/function relationships. Manually curated models are organized hierarchically if they describe domain families that are clearly related by common descent. As CDD also imports domain family models from a variety of external sources, it is a partially redundant collection. To simplify protein annotation, redundant models and models describing homologous families are clustered into superfamilies. By default, domain footprints are annotated with the corresponding superfamily designation, on top of which specific annotation may indicate high-confidence assignment of family membership. Pre-computed domain annotation is available for proteins in the Entrez/Protein dataset, and a novel interface, Batch CD-Search, allows the computation and download of annotation for large sets of protein queries. CDD can be accessed via http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Structure/cdd/cdd.shtml