Charging NO x Emitters for Health Damages: An Exploratory Analysis

We present a proof-of-concept analysis of the measurement of the health damage of ozone (O 3) produced from nitrogen oxides (NO x = NO + NO 2) emitted by individual large point sources in the eastern United States. We use a regional atmospheric model of the eastern United States, the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with eXtensions (CAMx), to quantify the variable impact that a fixed quantity of NO x emitted from individual sources can have on the downwind concentration of surface O 3, depending on temperature and local biogenic hydrocarbon emissions. We also examine the dependence of resulting ozone-related health damages on the size of the exposed population. The investigation is relevant to the increasingly widely used "cap and trade" approach to NO x regulation, which presumes that shifts of emissions over time and space, holding the total fixed over the course of the summer O 3 season, will have minimal effect on the environmental outcome. By contrast, we show that a shift of a unit of NO x emissions from one place or time to another could result in large changes in resulting health effects due to ozone formation and exposure. We indicate how the type of modeling carried out here might be used to attach externality-correcting prices to emissions. Charging emitters fees that are commensurate with the damage caused by their NO x emissions would create an incentive for emitters to reduce emissions at times and in locations where they cause the largest damage.surface ozone, NO x emissions, point sources, health impacts, mortality, morbidity, cap-and-trade

Balancing water resources conservation and food security in China

China’s economic growth is expected to continue into the next decades, accompanied by sustained urbanization and industrialization. The associated increase in demand for land, water resources, and rich foods will deepen the challenge of sustainably feeding the population and balancing agricultural and environmental policies. We combine a hydrologic model with an economic model to project China’s future food trade patterns and embedded water resources by 2030 and to analyze the effects of targeted irrigation reductions on this system, notably on national agricultural water consumption and food self-sufficiency. We simulate interprovincial and international food trade with a general equilibrium welfare model and a linear programming optimization, and we obtain province-level estimates of commodities’ virtual water content with a hydrologic model. We find that reducing irrigated land in regions highly dependent on scarce river flow and nonrenewable groundwater resources, such as Inner Mongolia and the greater Beijing area, can improve the efficiency of agriculture and trade regarding water resources. It can also avoid significant consumption of irrigation water across China (up to 14.8 km3/y, reduction by 14%), while incurring relatively small decreases in national food self-sufficiency (e.g., by 3% for wheat). Other researchers found that a national, rather than local, water policy would have similar effects on food production but would only reduce irrigation water consumption by 5%

Ozone air quality and radiative forcing consequences of changes in ozone precursor emissions

Changes in emissions of ozone (O3) precursors affect both air quality and climate. We first examine the sensitivity of surface O3 concentrations (O3srf) and net radiative forcing of climate (RFnet) to reductions in emissions of four precursors – nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide, and methane (CH4). We show that long-term CH4-induced changes in O3, known to be important for climate, are also relevant for air quality; for example, NOx reductions increase CH4, causing a long-term O3 increase that partially counteracts the direct O3 decrease. Second, we assess the radiative forcing resulting from actions to improve O3 air quality by calculating the ratio of ΔRFnet to changes in metrics of O3srf. Decreases in CH4 emissions cause the greatest RFnet decrease per unit reduction in O3srf, while NOx reductions increase RFnet. Of the available means to improve O3 air quality, therefore, CH4 abatement best reduces climate forcing

Nitrogen–climate interactions in US agriculture

Agriculture in the United States (US) cycles large quantities of nitrogen (N) to produce food, fuel, and fiber and is a major source of excess reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the environment. Nitrogen lost from cropping systems and animal operations moves to waterways, groundwater, and the atmosphere. Changes in climate and climate variability may further affect the ability of agricultural systems to conserve N. The N that escapes affects climate directly through the emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), and indirectly through the loss of nitrate (NO3-), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ammonia to downstream and downwind ecosystems that then emit some of the N received as N2O and NOx. Emissions of NOx lead to the formation of tropospheric ozone, a greenhouse gas that can also harm crops directly. There are many opportunities to mitigate the impact of agricultural N on climate and the impact of climate on agricultural N. Some are available today; many need further research; and all await effective incentives to become adopted. Research needs can be grouped into four major categories: (1) an improved understanding of agriculturalNcycle responses to changing climate; (2) a systems-level understanding of important crop and animal systems sufficient to identify key interactions and feedbacks; (3) the further development and testing of quantitative models capable of predicting N-climate interactions with confidence across a wide variety of crop-soil-climate combinations; and (4) socioecological research to better understand the incentives necessary to achieve meaningful deployment of realistic solutions

Methane emissions from oil and gas platforms in the North Sea

Since 1850 the concentration of atmospheric methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas, has more than doubled. Recent studies suggest that emission inventories may be missing sources and underestimating emissions. To investigate whether offshore oil and gas platforms leak CH4 during normal operation, we measured CH4 mole fractions around eight oil and gas production platforms in the North Sea which were neither flaring gas nor offloading oil. We use the measurements from summer 2017, along with meteorological data, in a Gaussian plume model to estimate CH4 emissions from each platform. We find CH4 mole fractions of between 11 and 370 ppb above background concentrations downwind of the platforms measured, corresponding to a median CH4 emission of 6.8 g CH4 s−1 for each platform, with a range of 2.9 to 22.3 g CH4 s−1. When matched to production records, during our measurements individual platforms lost between 0.04 % and 1.4 % of gas produced with a median loss of 0.23 %. When the measured platforms are considered collectively (i.e. the sum of platforms' emission fluxes weighted by the sum of the platforms' production), we estimate the CH4 loss to be 0.19 % of gas production. These estimates are substantially higher than the emissions most recently reported to the National Atmospheric Emission Inventory (NAEI) for total CH4 loss from United Kingdom platforms in the North Sea. The NAEI reports CH4 losses from the offshore oil and gas platforms we measured to be 0.13 % of gas production, with most of their emissions coming from gas flaring and offshore oil loading, neither of which was taking place at the time of our measurements. All oil and gas platforms we observed were found to leak CH4 during normal operation, and much of this leakage has not been included in UK emission inventories. Further research is required to accurately determine total CH4 leakage from all offshore oil and gas operations and to properly include the leakage in national and international emission inventories

Photochemistry in biomass burning plumes and implications for tropospheric ozone over the tropical South Atlantic

Photochemistry occuring in biomass burning plumes over the tropical south Atlantic is analyzed using data collected during the Transport and Atmospheric Chemistry Near the Equator‐Atlantic aircraft expedition conducted during the tropical dry season in September 1992 and a photochemical point model. Enhancement ratios (ΔY/ΔX, where Δ indicates the enhancement of a compound in the plume above the local background mixing ratio, Y are individual hydrocarbons, CO, O3, N2O, HNO3, peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), CH2O, acetone, H2O2, CH3OOH, HCOOH, CH3COOH or aerosols and X is CO or CO2) are reported as a function of plume age inferred from the progression of Δnon‐methane hydrocarbons/ΔCO enhancement ratios. Emission, formation, and loss of species in plumes can be diagnosed from progression of enhancement ratios from fresh to old plumes. O3 is produced in plumes over at least a 1 week period with mean ΔO3/ΔCO = 0.7 in old plumes. However, enhancement ratios in plumes can be influenced by changing background mixing ratios and by photochemical loss of CO. We estimate a downward correction of ∼20% in enhancement ratios in old plumes relative to ΔCO to correct for CO loss. In a case study of a large persistent biomass burning plume at 4‐km we found elevated concentrations of PAN in the fresh plume. The degradation of PAN helped maintain NOx mixing ratios in the plume where, over the course of a week, PAN was converted to HNO3. Ozone production in the plume was limited by the availability of NOx, and because of the short lifetime of O3 at 4‐km, net ozone production in the plume was negligible. Within the region, the majority of O3 production takes place in air above median CO concentration, indicating that most O3 production occurs in plumes. Scaling up from the mean observed ΔO3/ΔCO in old plumes, we estimate a minimum regional O3 production of 17×1010molecules O3 cm−2 s−1. This O3 production rate is sufficient to fully explain the observed enhancement in tropospheric O3 over the tropical South Atlantic during the dry season

Guidelines for Modeling and Reporting Health Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions.

BACKGROUND: Modeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation actions; however, documenting the adverse health effects can help to avoid them. Estimating the health effects of mitigation (HEM) actions can help policy makers prioritize investments based not only on mitigation potential but also on expected health benefits. To date, however, the wide range of incompatible approaches taken to developing and reporting HEM estimates has limited their comparability and usefulness to policymakers. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this effort was to generate guidance for modeling studies on scoping, estimating, and reporting population health effects from climate change mitigation actions. METHODS: An expert panel of HEM researchers was recruited to participate in developing guidance for conducting HEM studies. The primary literature and a synthesis of HEM studies were provided to the panel. Panel members then participated in a modified Delphi exercise to identify areas of consensus regarding HEM estimation. Finally, the panel met to review and discuss consensus findings, resolve remaining differences, and generate guidance regarding conducting HEM studies. RESULTS: The panel generated a checklist of recommendations regarding stakeholder engagement: HEM modeling, including model structure, scope and scale, demographics, time horizons, counterfactuals, health response functions, and metrics; parameterization and reporting; approaches to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis; accounting for policy uptake; and discounting. DISCUSSION: This checklist provides guidance for conducting and reporting HEM estimates to make them more comparable and useful for policymakers. Harmonization of HEM estimates has the potential to lead to advances in and improved synthesis of policy-relevant research that can inform evidence-based decision making and practice. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6745

Impacts of 21st century climate change on global air pollution-related premature mortality

Climate change modulates surface concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O-3), indirectly affecting premature mortality attributed to air pollution. We estimate the change in global premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL) associated with changes in surface O-3 and PM2.5 over the 21st century as a result of climate change. We use a global coupled chemistry-climate model to simulate current and future climate and the effect of changing climate on air quality. Epidemiological concentration-response relationships are applied to estimate resulting changes in premature mortality and YLL. The effect of climate change on air quality is isolated by holding emissions of air pollutants constant while allowing climate to evolve over the 21st century according to a moderate projection of greenhouse gas emissions (A1B scenario). Resulting changes in 21st century climate alone lead to an increase in simulated PM2.5 concentrations globally, and to higher (lower) O-3 concentrations over populated (remote) regions. Global annual premature mortality associated with chronic exposure to PM2.5 increases by approximately 100 thousand deaths (95 % confidence interval, CI, of 66-130 thousand) with corresponding YLL increasing by nearly 900 thousand (95 % CI, 576-1,128 thousand) years. The annual premature mortality due to respiratory disease associated with chronic O-3 exposure increases by +6,300 deaths (95 % CI, 1,600-10,400). This climate penalty indicates that stronger emission controls will be needed in the future to meet current air quality standards and to avoid higher health risks associated with climate change induced worsening of air quality over populated regions.http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000326944000011&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=8e1609b174ce4e31116a60747a720701Environmental SciencesMeteorology & Atmospheric SciencesSCI(E)EI17ARTICLE2239-25312

Potential influence of inter-continental transport of sulfate aerosols on air quality

In this study, we compare the potential influence of inter-continental transport of sulfate aerosols on the air quality of (different) continental regions. We use a global chemical transport model, Model of Ozone and Related Tracers, version 2 (MOZART-2), to quantify the source-receptor relationships of inter-continental transport of sulfate aerosols among ten regions in 2000. In order to compare the importance of foreign with domestic emissions and to estimate the effect of future changes in emissions on human exposure, we define an 'influence potential' (IP). The IP quantifies the human exposure that occurs in a receptor region as a result of a unit of SO(2) emissions from a source region. We find that due to the non-linear nature of sulfate production, regions with low SO(2) emissions usually have large domestic IP, and vice versa. An exception is East Asia (EA), which has both high SO(2) emissions and relatively large domestic IP, mostly caused by the spatial coincidence of emissions and population. We find that inter-continental IPs are usually less than domestic IPs by 1-3 orders of magnitude. SO(2) emissions from the Middle East (ME) and Europe (EU) have the largest potential to influence populations in surrounding regions. By comparing the IP ratios (IPR) between foreign and domestic SO(2) emissions, we find that the IPR values range from 0.000 01 to 0.16 and change with season. Therefore, if reducing human exposure to sulfate aerosols is the objective, all regions should first focus on reducing domestic SO(2) emissions. In addition, we find that relatively high IPR values exist among the EU, ME, the former Soviet Union (FSU) and African (AF) regions. Therefore, on the basis of the IP and IPR values, we conclude that a regional agreement among EA countries, and an inter-regional agreement among EU, ME, FSU and (north) AF regions to control sulfur emissions could benefit public health in these regions