Robustness of the BYM model in absence of spatial variation in the residuals

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the context of ecological studies, the Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model is of prime interest when studying the association between environmental exposure and rare diseases. However, adding spatially structured extra-variability in the model fitted to the data when such extra-variability does not exist conditionally on the covariates included in the model (<it>over-fitting</it>) may bias the estimation of the ecological association between covariates and relative risks toward the null. In order to investigate that possibility, a simulation study of the impact of introducing unnecessary residual spatial structure in the estimation model was conducted.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the case where no underlying extra-variability from the Poisson process exists, the simulation results show that models accounting for structured and unstructured residuals do not underestimate the ecological association, unless covariates have a very strong autocorrelation structure, i.e., 0.98 at 100 km on a territory of diameter 1000 km."</p

Detection of clusters of a rare disease over a large territory: performance of cluster detection methods

International audienceBackgroundFor many years, the detection of clusters has been of great public health interest. Several detection methods have been developed, the most famous of which is the circular scan method. The present study, which was conducted in the context of a rare disease distributed over a large territory (7675 cases registered over 17 years and located in 1895 units), aimed to evaluate the performance of several of the methods in realistic hot-spot cluster situations.MethodsAll the methods considered aim to identify the most likely cluster area, i.e. the zone that maximizes the likelihood ratio function, among a set of cluster candidates. The circular and elliptic scan methods were developed to detect regularly shaped clusters. Four other methods that focus on irregularly shaped clusters were also considered (the flexible scan method, the genetic algorithm method, and the double connected and maximum linkage spatial scan methods). The power of the methods was evaluated via Monte Carlo simulations under 27 alternative scenarios that corresponded to three cluster population sizes (20, 45 and 115 expected cases), three cluster shapes (linear, U-shaped and compact) and three relative risk values (1.5, 2.0 and 3.0).ResultsThree situations emerged from this power study. All the methods failed to detect the smallest clusters with a relative risk lower than 3.0. The power to detect the largest cluster with relative risk of 1.5 was markedly better for all methods, but, at most, half of the true cluster was captured. For other clusters, either large or with the highest relative risk, the standard elliptic scan method appeared to be the best method to detect linear clusters, while the flexible scan method localized the U-shaped clusters more precisely than other methods. Large compact clusters were detected well by all methods, with better results for the circular and elliptic scan methods.ConclusionsThe elliptic scan method and flexible scan method seemed the most able to detect clusters of a rare disease in a large territory. However, the probability of detecting small clusters with relative risk lower than 3.0 remained low with all the methods tested

Residential exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation and incidence of childhood hematological malignancies in France

Few studies have investigated the relationship between solar ultraviolet radiation (UV) and childhood hematological malignancies (CHM). This study addresses the associations between residential UV exposure at diagnosis and the incidence of types and subtypes of CHM, by age and gender, in France, over a long period, on the fine scale of the 36,326 Communes that constitute mainland France. The 9,082 cases of acute leukemia and 3,563 cases of lymphoma diagnosed before the age of 15 years from 1990 to 2009 were provided by the French National Registry of Childhood Hematological Malignancies. The incidence of CHM was calculated by Commune, year, age and gender and expressed as the standardized incidence ratio (SIR). UV data from 1988 to 2007 were extracted from the EUROSUN database. The annual daily average UV exposure of the children ranged from 85.5 to 137.8 J/cm2. For each additional 25 J/cm2, there was a significant increase in precursor B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (PBC-ALL) in children aged less than 5 years (SIR 1.18; 95 % CI 1.10–1.27). Further analysis of PBC-ALL in the young children suggested a better fit of models with a threshold, with the risk increasing above 100 J/cm2, for which the SIR was 1.24 (95 % CI 1.14–1.36) for a 25 J/cm2 increase. The results remained stable in analyses stratifying by deprivation index or degree of urbanization of the Communes. The study suggests that higher residential UV exposure may be positively associated with a higher incidence of PBC-ALL in early childhood

Excess mortality related to the August 2003 heat wave in France.

Objectives: From August 1st to 20th, 2003, the mean maximum temperature in France exceeded the seasonal norm by 11-12 degrees C on nine consecutive days. A major increase in mortality was then observed, which main epidemiological features are described herein. Methods: The number of deaths observed from August to November 2003 in France was compared to those expected on the basis of the mortality rates observed from 2000 to 2002 and the 2003 population estimates. Results: From August 1st to 20th, 2003, 15,000 excess deaths were observed. From 35 years age, the excess mortality was marked and increased with age. It was 15% higher in women than in men of comparable age as of age 45 years. Excess mortality at home and in retirement institutions was greater than that in hospitals. The mortality of widowed, single and divorced subjects was greater than that of married people. Deaths directly related to heat, heatstroke, hyperthermia and dehydration increased massively. Cardiovascular diseases, ill-defined morbid disorders, respiratory diseases and nervous system diseases also markedly contributed to the excess mortality. The geographic variations in mortality showed a clear age-dependent relationship with the number of very hot days. No harvesting effect was observed. Conclusions: Heat waves must be considered as a threat to European populations living in climates that are currently temperate. While the elderly and people living alone are particularly vulnerable to heat waves, no segment of the population may be considered protected from the risks associated with heat waves

Household Exposure to Pesticides and Risk of Childhood Hematopoietic Malignancies: The ESCALE Study (SFCE)

International audienceOBJECTIVES: We investigated the role of household exposure to pesticides in the etiology of childhood hematopoietic malignancies. METHODS: The national registry-based case-control study ESCALE (Etude sur les cancers de l'enfant) was carried out in France over the period 2003-2004. Population controls were frequency matched with the cases on age and sex. Maternal household use of pesticides during pregnancy and paternal use during pregnancy or childhood were reported by the mothers in a structured telephone questionnaire. Insecticides (used at home, on pets, or for garden crops), herbicides, and fungicides were distinguished. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) using unconditional regression models closely adjusting for age, sex, degree of urbanization, and type of housing (flat or house). RESULTS: We included a total of 764 cases of acute leukemia (AL), 130 of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), 166 of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), and 1,681 controls. Insecticide use during pregnancy was significantly associated with childhood AL [OR = 2.1; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.7-2.5], both lymphoblastic and myeloblastic, NHL (OR = 1.8; 95% CI, 1.3-2.6), mainly for Burkitt lymphoma (OR = 2.7; 95% CI, 1.6-4.5), and mixed-cell HL (OR = 4.1; 95% CI, 1.4-11.8), but not nodular sclerosis HL (OR = 1.1; 95% CI, 0.6-1.9). Paternal household use of pesticides was also related to AL (OR = 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2-1.8) and NHL (OR = 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.6); but for AL the relationships did not remain after adjustment for maternal pesticide use during pregnancy. CONCLUSION: The study findings strengthen the hypothesis that domestic use of pesticides may play a role in the etiology of childhood hematopoietic malignancies. The consistency of the findings with those of previous studies on AL raises the question of the advisability of preventing pesticide use by pregnant women

A predictive model relating daily fluctuations in summer temperatures and mortality rates

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the context of climate change, an efficient alert system to prevent the risk associated with summer heat is necessary. The authors' objective was to describe the temperature-mortality relationship in France over a 29-year period and to define and validate a combination of temperature factors enabling optimum prediction of the daily fluctuations in summer mortality.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study addressed the daily mortality rates of subjects aged over 55 years, in France as a whole, from 1975 to 2003. The daily minimum and maximum temperatures consisted in the average values recorded by 97 meteorological stations. For each day, a cumulative variable for the maximum temperature over the preceding 10 days was defined.</p> <p>The mortality rate was modelled using a Poisson regression with over-dispersion and a first-order autoregressive structure and with control for long-term and within-summer seasonal trends. The lag effects of temperature were accounted for by including the preceding 5 days. A "backward" method was used to select the most significant climatic variables. The predictive performance of the model was assessed by comparing the observed and predicted daily mortality rates on a validation period (summer 2003), which was distinct from the calibration period (1975–2002) used to estimate the model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The temperature indicators explained 76% of the total over-dispersion. The greater part of the daily fluctuations in mortality was explained by the interaction between minimum and maximum temperatures, for a day <it>t </it>and the day preceding it. The prediction of mortality during extreme events was greatly improved by including the cumulative variables for maximum temperature, in interaction with the maximum temperatures. The correlation between the observed and estimated mortality ratios was 0.88 in the final model.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although France is a large country with geographic heterogeneity in both mortality and temperatures, a strong correlation between the daily fluctuations in mortality and the temperatures in summer on a national scale was observed. The model provided a satisfactory quantitative prediction of the daily mortality both for the days with usual temperatures and for the days during intense heat episodes. The results may contribute to enhancing the alert system for intense heat waves.</p

Ecological association between a deprivation index and mortality in France over the period 1997 – 2001: variations with spatial scale, degree of urbanicity, age, gender and cause of death

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Spatial health inequalities have often been analysed in terms of deprivation. The aim of this study was to create an ecological deprivation index and evaluate its association with mortality over the entire mainland France territory. More specifically, the variations with the degree of urbanicity, spatial scale, age, gender and cause of death, which influence the association between mortality and deprivation, have been described.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The deprivation index, 'FDep99', was developed at the '<it>commune</it>'(smallest administrative unit in France) level as the first component of a principal component analysis of four socioeconomic variables.</p> <p>Proxies of the Carstairs and Townsend indices were calculated for comparison.</p> <p>The spatial association between FDep99 and mortality was studied using five different spatial scales, and by degree of urbanicity (five urban unit categories), age, gender and cause of death, over the period 1997–2001.</p> <p>'Avoidable' causes of death were also considered for subjects aged less than 65 years. They were defined as causes related to risk behaviour and primary prevention (alcohol, smoking, accidents).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The association between the FDep99 index and mortality was positive and quasi-log-linear, for all geographic scales. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was 24% higher for the <it>communes </it>of the most deprived quintile than for those of the least deprived quintile. The between-urban unit category and between-<it>région </it>heterogeneities of the log-linear associations were not statistically significant. The association was positive for all the categories studied and was significantly greater for subjects aged less than 65 years, for men, and for 'avoidable' mortality.</p> <p>The amplitude and regularity of the associations between mortality and the Townsend and Carstairs indices were lower.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The deprivation index proposed reflects a major part of spatial socioeconomic heterogeneity, in a homogeneous manner over the whole country. The index may be routinely used by healthcare authorities to observe, analyse, and manage spatial health inequalities.</p

Proximity to overhead power lines and childhood leukaemia: an international pooled analysis

© 2018, Cancer Research UK. Background: Although studies have consistently found an association between childhood leukaemia risk and magnetic fields, the associations between childhood leukaemia and distance to overhead power lines have been inconsistent. We pooled data from multiple studies to assess the association with distance and evaluate whether it is due to magnetic fields or other factors associated with distance from lines. Methods: We present a pooled analysis combining individual-level data (29,049 cases and 68,231 controls) from 11 record-based studies. Results: There was no material association between childhood leukaemia and distance to nearest overhead power line of any voltage. Among children living < 50 m from 200 + kV power lines, the adjusted odds ratio for childhood leukaemia was 1.33 (95% CI: 0.92–1.93). The odds ratio was higher among children diagnosed before age 5 years. There was no association with calculated magnetic fields. Odds ratios remained unchanged with adjustment for potential confounders. Conclusions: In this first comprehensive pooled analysis of childhood leukaemia and distance to power lines, we found a small and imprecise risk for residences < 50 m of 200 + kV lines that was not explained by high magnetic fields. Reasons for the increased risk, found in this and many other studies, remains to be elucidated