Integrating new sea-level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An on-going process

The release of new and updated sea-level rise information, such as from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports, needs to be better anticipated in coastal risk and adaptation assessments. This requires risk and adaptation assessments to be regularly reviewed and updated as needed, reflecting the new information but retaining useful information from earlier assessments. In this paper, updated guidance on the types of sea-level rise information available is presented, including for sea-level extremes. An inter-comparison of the evolution of the headline projected ranges across all the IPCC reports show an increase from the Fourth and Fifth assessments to the most recent ‘Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate’ assessment. Later IPCC reports have begun to highlight the importance of potential high-end sea-level response, mainly reflecting uncertainties in the Greenland/Antarctic ice sheet components, and how this might be considered in scenarios. The methods that are developed here are practical and consider coastal risk assessment, adaptation planning and long-term decision making to be an ongoing process and ensure that despite the large uncertainties pragmatic adaptation decisions can be made. It is concluded that new sea-level information should not be seen as an automatic reason for abandoning existing assessments, but as an opportunity to review (i) the assessment’s robustness in the light of new science, and (ii) the utility of proactive adaptation and planning strategies, especially over the more uncertain longer-term

Urban resilience:two diverging interpretations

This paper uses two diverging interpretations of resilience to review and assess current UK policies for urban resilience. Both developed in scientific studies, the first interpretation is based on a mechanistic model of systems that can recover their original state after shocks, and the second is based on an evolutionary model enabling adaptation to disturbances. The literature review demonstrates that at present urban resilience is predominantly associated with the former. By contrast, only few policies and studies are inspired by the latter, although this is better suited to analyse dynamics of urban adaptation and manage cities accordingly. The contribution of this paper to an understanding of urban resilience is therefore twofold. First, an identification of the long-term consequences on the built environment associated with each model is provided, with the mechanical model ultimately hindering adaptation. Second, some approaches to generate effective responses to environmental and societal change are identified. Ultimately, this paper emphasises that the idea of a resilient city is fit for this age characterised by uncertainty, albeit it requires the recognition within planning practice that urban adaptation cannot be attained with current methodologies, and that much can be learned from theories on the resilience of ecosystems.

The undebated issue of justice: silent discourses in Dutch flood risk management

Flood risk for all types of flooding is projected to increase based on climate change projections and increases in damage potential. These challenges are likely to aggravate issues of justice in flood risk management (henceforth FRM). Based on a discursive-institutionalist perspective, this paper explores justice in Dutch FRM: how do institutions allocate the responsibilities and costs for FRM for different types of flooding? What are the underlying conceptions of justice? What are the future challenges with regard to climate change? The research revealed that a dichotomy is visible in the Dutch approach to FRM: despite an abundance of rules, regulations and resources spent, flood risk or its management, are only marginally discussed in terms of justice. Despite that the current institutional arrangement has material outcomes that treat particular groups of citizens differently, depending on the type of flooding they are prone to, area they live in (unembanked/embanked) or category of user (e.g. household, industry, farmer). The paper argues that the debate on justice will (re)emerge, since the differences in distributional outcomes are likely to become increasingly uneven as a result of increasing flood risk. The Netherlands should be prepared for this debate by generating the relevant facts and figures. An inclusive debate on the distribution of burdens of FRM could contribute to more effective and legitimate FRM

Working together with water: A living land builds for its future

The government asked the Delta Committee to come up with recommendations on how to protect the Dutch coast and the low-lying hinterland against the consequences of climate change. The issue is how the Netherlands can be made climate proof over the very long term: safe against flooding, while still remaining an attractive place to live, to reside and work, for recreation and investment. The task at hand, then, involved looking further than just flood protection. The Committee’s vision therefore embraces interactions with life and work, agriculture, nature, recreation, landscape, infrastructure and energy. The strategy for future centuries rests on two pillars: flood protection and sustainability. The report also emphasises the opportunities for Dutch society/the Netherlands as a whole. Water safety is at the centre of this report, and includes both flood protection and securing fresh water supplies. Achieving water safety prevents casualties and social disruption, while avoiding damage to our economy, landscape, nature, culture and reputation. In their report, the Delta Committee assumes that a safe Netherlands is a collective social good for which the government is and will remain responsible. The level of flood protection must be raised by at least a factor of 10 with respect to the present level. English translation of "Samen Werken met water. Een land dat leeft, bouwt aan zijn toekomst" http://repository.tudelft.nl/view/ir/uuid%3A6bb16d66-94c6-44eb-bb6b-e389283c1e82/Hydraulic EngineeringCivil Engineering and Geoscience

Samen Werken met water: Een land dat leeft, bouwt aan zijn toekomst

De Deltacommissie is door de regering gevraagd advies uit te brengen over de bescherming van Nederland tegen de gevolgen van klimaatverandering. Daarbij gaat het om de vraag hoe Nederland zo ingericht kan worden dat het ook op de zeer lange termijn klimaatbestendig is, veilig tegen overstromingen, en een aantrekkelijke plaats is en blijft om te leven; wonen, werken, recreren en investeren. Daarbij was de vraag breder te kijken dan naar (water)veiligheid alleen. In de visie is daarom ook gelet op samenhang met wonen en werken, landbouw, natuur, recreatie, landschap, infrastructuur en energie. Veiligheid en duurzaamheid zijn de twee pijlers voor de strategie van de komende eeuwen. Naast bescherming tegen het water, benadrukt en benoemt het advies de kansen voor de Nederlandse samenleving. In het advies speelt "waterveiligheid" een cruciale rol. Hierbij gaat het om de bescherming tegen overstromingen en het veiligstellen van de zoetwatervoorziening. Het zekerstellen van waterveiligheid voorkomt slachtoffers en maatschappelijke ontwrichting, het voorkomt schade aan economie, landschap, natuur, cultuur en reputatie. Het advies gaat ervan uit dat een veilig Nederland een collectief maatschappelijk belang is waarvoor de overheid verantwoordelijkheid neemt en blijft nemen. Het veiligheidsniveau moet tenminste een factor 10 hoger dan het huidige niveau. De aanbevelingen van de commissie leggen de nadruk op het kunnen meeontwikkelen met klimaatverandering en andere ecologische processen, ze zijn kosteneffectief en hebben een maatschappelijke meerwaarde. De aanbevelingen zijn flexibel en geleidelijk te realiseren en bevatten handelingsperspectief voor de korte termijn. Met de uitvoering ervan is Nederland in staat de effecten van klimaatverandering beter op te vangen en nieuwe kansen te creeren. De voorgestelde ingrepen in het advies moeten duurzaam zijn: bij de uitvoering ervan moet efficient gebruik worden gemaakt van water, energie en andere grondstoffen, zodanig dat de kwaliteit van de leefomgeving niet alleen behouden blijft maar zelfs wordt verbeterd. Voor de uitvoering van het advies voor een klimaatbestendige inrichting van Nederland heeft de Deltacommissie het Deltaprogramma opgesteld. Dit programma wordt financieel (Deltafonds) en politiek-bestuurlijk verankerd in een vernieuwde Deltawet. De urgentie (voor uitvoering) van het advies is groot. Nederland heeft een achterstand in te lopen omdat niet wordt voldaan aan de huidige geldende normen. Bovendien zijn de normen achterhaald en moeten naar boven worden bijgesteld. Daarnaast verandert het klimaat snel, stijgt de zeespiegel waarschijnlijk sneller dan aangenomen en neemt de (extreme) variatie in rivierafvoeren naar verwachting toe. Het economisch, maatschappelijk en natuurlijk belang van Nederland is groot en groeit verder; een dijkdoorbraak heeft zeer ontwrichtende gevolgen voor heel Nederland. De Deltacommissie meent dat er rekening moet worden gehouden met een zeespiegelstijging van 0,65 tot 1,30 meter in 2100 en van 2 tot 4 meter in 2200. Het effect van bodemdaling is hierin meegenomen. Deze waarden vertegenwoordigen de mogelijke bovengrenzen; het is verstandig om hiermee rekening te houden, zodat de besluiten die worden genomen en de maatregelen die worden getroffen voor lange tijd houdbaar zijn tegen de achtergrond van wat Nederland mogelijk te wachten staat. De temperatuurstijging en veranderende luchtcirculatie leiden voor de Rijn en de Maas tot afnemende zomer- en toenemende winterafvoeren. Voor de maximale afvoer van de Rijn moet rond 2100 rekening worden gehouden met ongeveer 18.000 m3/s. Voor de Maas komt dit op ongeveer 4.600 m3/s (huidige maatgevende afvoeren zijn respectievelijk: 16.000 m3/s en 3.800 m3/s). Een stijgende zeespiegel, afnemende rivierafvoeren in de zomer, langduriger droogteperioden en indringend zout water via de rivieren en het grondwater zetten de zoetwatervoorziening van het land onder druk. Dit leidt tot schadelijke gevolgen voor de drinkwater-voorziening, landbouw, scheepvaart en (koel)water gerelateerde economische sectoren. Engelse vertaling "Working together with water: A living land builds for its future" http://repository.tudelft.nl/view/ir/uuid:af79991f-31e7-47a4-a6ef-bfd54ca59c57/Civil Engineering and Geoscience

Water-safety strategies and local-scale spatial quality

Delta regions throughout the world are subject to increasing flood risks. For protection, regional water safety strategies are being developed. Local-scale spatial qualities should be included in their evaluation. An experimental methodology has been developed for this purpose. This paper concentrates on water safety in The Netherlands. The Deltaprogram aims to ensure the country’s water safety until 2100. A sub-programme, Rhine Estuary–Drechtsteden, defines scenarios for water-safety interventions that use combinations of permanent or flexible, opening or closing of connections between the Dutch delta, North Sea and river systems. Cross-sections show water levels throughout the urbanised Rhine Estuary region, based on forecasts for each of the scenarios, and local-scale interventions, such as dykes or flood barriers. The interventions are rated using existing and new criteria for the evaluation of spatial quality. Dominant criteria for each area have been used to define design criteria. The choice of a solution on a regional scale is shown to have a significant impact on the spatial quality on a local scale. In particular, water-safety interventions that result in extreme water levels have a negative impact. The methodology is suitable for estimating the impact of a regional water-safety strategy on a local scale and provides valuable design criteria.UrbanismArchitectur

Extreme floods and river values: A social–ecological perspective

The social–ecological status of rivers is particularly pronounced during extreme flood events. Extreme floods are a substantial threat to people, infrastructure, and livelihoods. Efforts to address the threats of extreme floods are aligned largely with social values of flood risk mitigation, flood preparation, and avoidance of loss. However, extreme floods are also a fundamental driver of river ecosystems, aligned with ecological (biophysical) values of event effectiveness, river change, disturbance, biotic response, and heterogeneity. A survey of the public perceptions of extreme floods revealed that participants generally understood the ecological values of extreme floods through concepts of naturalness, climate change, and knowledge production. However, participants had less understanding of how river integrity might influence the response of rivers to extreme floods. Resilience can be used as a framework for uniting the social and ecological values of extreme floods because it embodies a common language of change, disturbance, and adaptation and complements the socially dominated discourse of risk and emergency management. Three strategies are given for river scientists to frame ecological values in parallel with the paradigms of the socially dominated discourse of extreme floods: be prepared to act following an extreme flood disaster, learn and use the language of the flood risk and emergency management sector, and undertake assessments of the ecological values of extreme floods to highlight the threats to those values that may occur with climate change and river modification