Preliminary signs of the initiation of deep convection by GNSS

This study reports on the exploitation of GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) and a new potential application for weather forecasts and nowcasting. We focus on GPS observations (post-processing with a time resolution of 5 and 15 min and fast calculations with a time resolution of 5 min) and try to establish typical configurations of the water vapour field which characterise convective systems and particularly which supply precursors of their initiation are associated with deep convection. We show the critical role of GNSS horizontal gradients of the water vapour content to detect small scale structures of the troposphere (i. e. convective cells), and then we present our strategy to obtain typical water vapour configurations by GNSS called "H2O alert". These alerts are based on a dry/wet contrast taking place during a 30 min time window before the initiation of a convective system. GNSS observations have been assessed for the rainfall event of 28-29 June 2005 using data from the Belgian dense network (baseline from 5 to 30 km). To validate our GNSS H2O alerts, we use the detection of precipitation by C-band weather radar and thermal infrared radiance (cloud top temperature) of the 10.8-micrometers channel [Ch09] of SEVIRI instrument on Meteosat Second Generation. Using post-processed measurements, our H2O alerts obtain a score of about 80 %. Final and ultra-rapid IGS (International GNSS Service) orbits have been tested and show equivalent results. Fast calculations (less than 10 min) have been processed for 29 June 2005 with a time resolution of 5 min. The mean bias (and standard deviation) between fast and reference post-processed ZTD (zenith total delay) and gradients are, respectively, 0.002 (+/- 0.008) m and 0.001 (+/- 0.004) m. The score obtained for the H2O alerts generated by fast calculations is 65 %

Population Dynamics of the Critically Endangered\ud Golden Lancehead Pitviper, Bothrops insularis: Stability\ud or Decline?

Little is known about vital rates of snakes generally because of the difficulty in collecting data. Here we used a robust design\ud mark-recapture model to estimate survival, behavioral effects on capture probability, temporary emigration, abundance and\ud test the hypothesis of population decline in the golden lancehead pitviper, Bothrops insularis, an endemic and critically\ud endangered species from southeastern Brazil. We collected data at irregular intervals over ten occasions from 2002 to 2010.\ud Survival was slightly higher in the wet season than in the dry season. Temporal emigration was high, indicating the\ud importance of accounting for this parameter both in the sampling design and modeling. No behavioral effects were\ud detected on capture probability. We detected an average annual population decrease (l= 0.93, CI = 0.47–1.38) during the\ud study period, but estimates included high uncertainty, and caution in interpretation is needed. We discuss the potential\ud effects of the illegal removal of individuals and the implications of the vital rates obtained for the future persistence and\ud conservation of this endemic, endangered species

First order phase transition from ferromagnetism to antiferromagnetism in Ce(Fe0.96_{0.96}Al0.04_{0.04})2_2

Taking the pseudobinary C15 Laves phase compound Ce(Fe$_{0.96}$Al$_{0.04}$)$_2$ as a paradigm for studying a ferromagnetic to antiferromagnetic phase transition, we present interesting thermomagnetic history effects in magnetotransport as well as magnetisation measurements across this phase transition. A comparison is made with history effects observed across the ferromagnetic to antiferromagnetic transition in R$_{0.5}$Sr$_{0.5}$MnO$_3$ crystals.Comment: 11 pages of text and 4 figures; submitted to Physical Review Letter

Diagnostic accuracy of a clinical diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: An international case-cohort study

We conducted an international study of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) diagnosis among a large group of physicians and compared their diagnostic performance to a panel of IPF experts. A total of 1141 respiratory physicians and 34 IPF experts participated. Participants evaluated 60 cases of interstitial lung disease (ILD) without interdisciplinary consultation. Diagnostic agreement was measured using the weighted kappa coefficient (\u3baw). Prognostic discrimination between IPF and other ILDs was used to validate diagnostic accuracy for first-choice diagnoses of IPF and were compared using the Cindex. A total of 404 physicians completed the study. Agreement for IPF diagnosis was higher among expert physicians (\u3baw=0.65, IQR 0.53-0.72, p20 years of experience (C-index=0.72, IQR 0.0-0.73, p=0.229) and non-university hospital physicians with more than 20 years of experience, attending weekly MDT meetings (C-index=0.72, IQR 0.70-0.72, p=0.052), did not differ significantly (p=0.229 and p=0.052 respectively) from the expert panel (C-index=0.74 IQR 0.72-0.75). Experienced respiratory physicians at university-based institutions diagnose IPF with similar prognostic accuracy to IPF experts. Regular MDT meeting attendance improves the prognostic accuracy of experienced non-university practitioners to levels achieved by IPF experts

Roflumilast in moderate-to-severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease treated with longacting bronchodilators: two randomised clinical trials

Background Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have few options for treatment. The efficacy and safety of the phosphodiesterase-4 inhibitor roflumilast have been investigated in studies of patients with moderate-to-severe COPD, but not in those concomitantly treated with longacting inhaled bronchodilators. The effect of roflumilast on lung function in patients with COPD that is moderate to severe who are already being treated with salmeterol or tiotropium was investigated. Methods In two double-blind, multicentre studies done in an outpatient setting, after a 4-week run-in, patients older than 40 years with moderate-to-severe COPD were randomly assigned to oral roflumilast 500 mu g or placebo once a day for 24 weeks, in addition to salmeterol (M2-127 study) or tiotropium (M2-128 study). The primary endpoint was change in prebronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1s (FEV(1)). Analysis was by intention to treat. The studies are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00313209 for M2-127, and NCT00424268 for M2-128. Findings In the salmeterol plus roflumilast trial, 466 patients were assigned to and treated with roflumilast and 467 with placebo; in the tiotropium plus roflumilast trial, 371 patients were assigned to and treated with roflumilast and 372 with placebo. Compared with placebo, roflumilast consistently improved mean prebronchodilator FEV(1) by 49 mL (p<0.0001) in patients treated with salmeterol, and 80 mL (p<0.0001) in those treated with tiotropium. Similar improvement in postbronchodilator FEV(1) was noted in both groups. Furthermore, roflumilast had beneficial effects on other lung function measurements and on selected patient-reported outcomes in both groups. Nausea, diarrhoea, weight loss, and, to a lesser extent, headache were more frequent in patients in the roflumilast groups. These adverse events were associated with increased patient withdrawal. Interpretation Roflumilast improves lung function in patients with COPD treated with salmeterol or tiotropium, and could become an important treatment for these patients

Influence of cisplatin-use, age, performance status and duration of chemotherapy on symptom control in advanced non-small cell lung cancer: detailed symptom analysis of a randomised study comparing cisplatin-vindesine to gemcitabine

Background: We previously reported that treatment of patients with symptomatic advanced non-small cell lung cancer with single agent Gemcitabine (GEM) resulted in a superior clinical-benefit response rate (RR) compared to cisplatin-based combination chemotherapy. We now report the detailed individual symptom control analysis, and the influence of cisplatin-use, age, performance status (PS) and duration of treatment. Patients and methods: Patients received either GEM (1000 mg/m(2), days 1, 8 and 15) or cisplatin (100 mg/m(2), day 1) plus Vindesine (3 mg/m(2), days 1 and 15) (PV), both every 4 weeks. Scores of 9 symptoms were listed weekly by the patient on visual analogue scales. Improvement of a symptom was defined as 2 consecutive cycles of improvement over baseline. Results: Baseline symptoms in the 169 patients were well balanced between the 2 arms (84 GEM, 85 PV). Both patients with objective response and disease stabilisation had clearly better symptom control than those with disease progression. Symptom control in both arms was similar for 'disease-specific' symptoms such as cough, dyspnea, pain or haemoptysis. Compared to PV, a significantly larger number of GEM-patients had better scores for 'constitutional' items such as anorexia (P = 0.007), ability to carry on with daily activities (P = 0.04) and overall impression of quality-of-life (P = 0.008). Symptom control was very similar in younger ( 65 years) patients, and only slightly better in those with a Karnofsky PS greater than or equal to 80% compared to those < 80%. Most of the symptom improvement occurred in the first 3 cycles, with some further symptom improvement in the following cycles in the GEM-arm only. Conclusions: Both GEM and PV yield a symptom control rate much higher than expected by the objective tumour RR. GEM is equally effective in controlling 'disease-specific' symptoms, but superior in controlling 'constitutional' symptoms. Most of the symptom control was achieved during the first 3 cycles of treatment, with some further improvement thereafter in the GEM-arm only. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved