National Security Risks? Uncertainty, Austerity and Other Logics of Risk in the UK government’s National Security Strategy

Risk scholars within Security studies have argued that the concept of security has gone through a fundamental transformation away from a threat-based conceptualisation of defence, urgency and exceptionality to one of preparedness, precautions and prevention of future risks, some of which are calculable, others of which are not. This article explores whether and how the concept of security is changing due to this ‘rise of risk’, through a hermeneutically grounded conceptual and discourse analysis of the United Kingdom government’s national security strategy (NSS) from 1998 to 2011. We ask how risk-security language is employed in the NSS; what factors motivate such discursive shifts; and what, if any, consequences of these shifts can be discerned in UK national security practices. Our aim is twofold: to better understand shifts in the security understandings and policies of UK authorities; and to contribute to the conceptual debate on the significance of the rise of risk as a component of the concept of security

Identifying probable post-traumatic stress disorder: applying supervised machine learning to data from a UK military cohort

Background: Early identification of probable post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) can lead to early intervention and treatment. Aims: This study aimed to evaluate supervised machine learning (ML) classifiers for the identification of probable PTSD in those who are serving, or have recently served in the United Kingdom (UK) Armed Forces. Methods: Supervised ML classification techniques were applied to a military cohort of 13,690 serving and ex-serving UK Armed Forces personnel to identify probable PTSD based on self-reported service exposures and a range of validated self-report measures. Data were collected between 2004 and 2009. Results: The predictive performance of supervised ML classifiers to detect cases of probable PTSD were encouraging when compared to a validated measure, demonstrating a capability of supervised ML to detect the cases of probable PTSD. It was possible to identify which variables contributed to the performance, including alcohol misuse, gender and deployment status. A satisfactory sensitivity was obtained across a range of supervised ML classifiers, but sensitivity was low, indicating a potential for false negative diagnoses. Conclusions: Detection of probable PTSD based on self-reported measurement data is feasible, may greatly reduce the burden on public health and improve operational efficiencies by enabling early intervention, before manifestation of symptoms

Think Again – Supplying War: Reappraising Military Logistics and Its Centrality to Strategy and War

This article argues that logistics constrains strategic opportunity while itself being heavily circumscribed by strategic and operational planning. With the academic literature all but ignoring the centrality of logistics to strategy and war, this article argues for a reappraisal of the critical role of military logistics, and posits that the study and conduct of war and strategy are incomplete at best or false at worst when they ignore this crucial component of the art of war. The article conceptualises the logistics–strategy nexus in a novel way, explores its contemporary manifestation in an age of uncertainty, and applies it to a detailed case study of UK operations in Iraq and Afghanistan since 2001

From rhetoric to reality: which resilience, why resilience, and whose resilience in spatial planning?

This paper analyses contrasting academic understandings of ‘equilibrium resilience’ and ‘evolutionary resilience’ and investigates how these nuances are reflected within both policy and practice. We reveal that there is a lack of clarity in policy, where these differences are not acknowledged with resilience mainly discussed as a singular, vague, but optimistic aim. This opaque political treatment of the term and the lack of guidance has affected practice by privileging an equilibrist interpretation over more transformative, evolutionary measures. In short, resilience within spatial planning is characterised by a simple return to normality that is more analogous with planning norms, engineered responses, dominant interests, and technomanagerial trends. The paper argues that, although presented as a possible paradigm shift, resilience policy and practice underpin existing behaviour and normalise risk. It leaves unaddressed wider sociocultural concerns and instead emerges as a narrow, regressive, technorational frame centred on reactive measures at the building scale

An alternative strategic defence and security review: reconstituting a shrinking force

This paper critically examines the 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review. It is argued that despite budgetary constraints the government could build forces far more capable of power projection than envisaged under current plans. Defence is a true necessity but it does not have to be unaffordable provided risky procurement decisions are avoided