Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

\ua9 2025. The Author(s). BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386-2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. METHODS: Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. RESULTS: Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. CONCLUSIONS: The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases

Crowdsourcing biocuration: The Community Assessment of Community Annotation with Ontologies (CACAO).

Experimental data about gene functions curated from the primary literature have enormous value for research scientists in understanding biology. Using the Gene Ontology (GO), manual curation by experts has provided an important resource for studying gene function, especially within model organisms. Unprecedented expansion of the scientific literature and validation of the predicted proteins have increased both data value and the challenges of keeping pace. Capturing literature-based functional annotations is limited by the ability of biocurators to handle the massive and rapidly growing scientific literature. Within the community-oriented wiki framework for GO annotation called the Gene Ontology Normal Usage Tracking System (GONUTS), we describe an approach to expand biocuration through crowdsourcing with undergraduates. This multiplies the number of high-quality annotations in international databases, enriches our coverage of the literature on normal gene function, and pushes the field in new directions. From an intercollegiate competition judged by experienced biocurators, Community Assessment of Community Annotation with Ontologies (CACAO), we have contributed nearly 5,000 literature-based annotations. Many of those annotations are to organisms not currently well-represented within GO. Over a 10-year history, our community contributors have spurred changes to the ontology not traditionally covered by professional biocurators. The CACAO principle of relying on community members to participate in and shape the future of biocuration in GO is a powerful and scalable model used to promote the scientific enterprise. It also provides undergraduate students with a unique and enriching introduction to critical reading of primary literature and acquisition of marketable skills

Spatiotemporal variation of the epifaunal assemblages associated to Sargassum muticum on the NW Atlantic coast of Morocco

Epifaunal assemblages inhabiting the non-indigenous macroalga Sargassum muticum (Yendo) Fensholt were investigated on two physically distinct intertidal rocky (S1) and sandy (S2) sites along the Atlantic coast of Morocco. The objective of this study was to test whether the habitat-forming marine alga S. muticum invasive in these sites supported different epifaunal assemblages under different environmental conditions and through time. The gastropods Steromphala umbilicalis, S. pennanti, and Rissoa parva and the isopod Dynamene bidentata were the most contributive species to the dissimilarity of epifaunal assemblage structure between both sites throughout seasons. SIMPER analysis showed a dissimilarity of 58.3-78.5% in the associated species composition of S. muticum between study sites with respect to sampling season. Species diversity and total abundance were significantly higher at the rocky site compared to the sandy site. PERMANOVA analyses showed significant differences of associated epifaunal assemblage structure for the season and site interaction. Accordingly, site and season were determinant factors conditioning the role of habitat in structuring epifaunal assemblages.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The worldwide NORM production and a fully automated gamma-ray spectrometer for their characterization

Materials containing radionuclides of natural origin, which is modified by human made processes and being subject to regulation because of their radioactivity are known as NORM. We present a brief review of the main categories of non-nuclear industries together with the levels of activity concentration in feed raw materials, products and waste, including mechanisms of radioisotope enrichments. The global management of NORM shows a high level of complexity, mainly due to different degrees of radioactivity enhancement and the huge amount of worldwide waste production. The future tendency of guidelines concerning environmental protection will require both a systematic monitoring based on the ever-increasing sampling and high performance of gamma ray spectroscopy. On the ground of these requirements a new low background fully automated high-resolution gamma-ray spectrometer MCA_Rad has been developed. The design of Pb and Cu shielding allowed to reach a background reduction of two order of magnitude with respect to laboratory radioactivity. A severe lowering of manpower cost is obtained through a fully automation system, which enables up to 24 samples to be measured without any human attendance. Two coupled HPGe detectors increase the detection efficiency, performing accurate measurements on sample volume (180 cc) with a reduction of sample transport cost of material. Details of the instrument calibration method are presented. MCA_Rad system can measure in less than one hour a typical NORM sample enriched in U and Th with some hundreds of Bq/kg, with an overall uncertainty less than 5%. Quality control of this method has been tested. Measurements of certified reference materials RGK-1, RGU-2 and RGTh-1 containing concentrations of K, U and Th comparable to NORM have been performed, resulting an overall relative discrepancy of 5% among central values within the reported uncertainty.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures, 6 table

Dose reduzida de clethodim no controle de papua na cultura da soja, em função da época de aplicação Reduced rate of clethodim for alexandergrass: control in soybeans as a function of application time

Foi realizado um experimento a campo em Eldorado do Sul, RS, no ano agrícola de 19 94 /9 5, para avaliar o controle de papuã (Brachiaria plantaginea (Linck) Hitchc.), que ocorreu numa população média de 95 plantas/m2. Foi avaliado o herbicida clethodim à dose-plena (120g/ ha) e à meia-dose (60g/ha). A cultivar de soja utilizada foi RS-7 Jacuí e usado o delineamento experimental em blocos casualizados com quatro repetições. Os tratamentos foram aplicados aos 14, 21, 28 e 35 dias após a emergência da soja (DAE). Foram mantidas testemunhas capinadas, com operações iniciadas nas mesmas épocas de aplicação do herbicida, e uma testemunha infestada durante todo o ciclo da cultura. O controle foi avaliado visualmente, em três ocasiões, através de escala percentual. Os graus de controle de papua obtidos à dose-plena foram equivalentes entre si quando aplicado nas três primeiras épocas, com eficiência entre 95 e 98% na última avaliação. A meia-dose mostrou, para as três primeiras épocas de aplicação, resultados semelhantes aos de doseplena, porém em níveis um pouco inferiores, situando-se entre 85 e 95% o controle obtido na última avaliação. O controle do papuã foi mediano quando clethodim foi aplicado aos 35 DAE, tanto par a dose-plena quanto para meiadose. Quanto ao rendimento de grãos, não houve diferença estatística significativa entre os tratamentos em suas várias modalidades, embora todos tenham superado a testemunha infestada, com incrementos na produtividade de grãos entre 73 e 10 5% . O experimento permite concluir pela viabilidade da utilização de meiadose de clethodim para o controle de papua em soja, realizando as aplicações preferencialmente até a quarta semana após a emergência da cultura.<br>A field trial was carried out in Eldorado do Sul, RS, during the 1994/95 growing season to evaluate Alexandergrass (Brachiaria plantaginea (Linck ) Hitchc ) control, that occurred with na average population of 95 plants/m2. The herbicide used was clethodim at full-rate (120g/ha) and at half-rate (60g/ha). The tested cultivar was RS-7 Jacuí and it was use d a complete randomized blocks design with four replicates. The treatments were applied at 14, 21, 28, and 35 days after soybean emergence (DAE) . Hand hoeing treatments were included, and started at the same date of herbicide applications. A weeded check was kept during all crop cycle. Control evaluations were visualy performed in three opportunities using percentual scale. The levels of Alexandergrass control got with full herbicide rate were equival ents when clethodim was applied at the three first times. Its efficiency ranged from 95 to 98% at the last evaluation. Half herbicide rate showed si mil ar trends at the la st eval uation, although at lower levels, ranging from 85 to 95% control for the three first application times. Alexandergrass control was only fair when clethodim was applied at 35 DAE at either rate. Grain yield did not show differences between treatments except for weedy check; nevertheless, all of them supplanted the weeded treatment with increments ranging from 73 to 105%. This trial allows to conclude that it is possible to use half-rate of clethodim to control Alexandergrass in soybean, being the application done preferably until the fourth week after soybean emergence

Deaths and Medical Visits Attributable to Environmental Pollution in the United Arab Emirates

<div><p>Background</p><p>This study estimates the potential health gains achievable in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with improved controls on environmental pollution. The UAE is an emerging economy in which population health risks have shifted rapidly from infectious diseases to chronic conditions observed in developed nations. The UAE government commissioned this work as part of an environmental health strategic planning project intended to address this shift in the nature of the country’s disease burden.</p> <p>Methods and Findings</p><p>We assessed the burden of disease attributable to six environmental exposure routes outdoor air, indoor air, drinking water, coastal water, occupational environments, and climate change. For every exposure route, we integrated UAE environmental monitoring and public health data in a spatially resolved Monte Carlo simulation model to estimate the annual disease burden attributable to selected pollutants. The assessment included the entire UAE population (4.5 million for the year of analysis). The study found that outdoor air pollution was the leading contributor to mortality, with 651 attributable deaths (95% confidence interval [CI] 143–1,440), or 7.3% of all deaths. Indoor air pollution and occupational exposures were the second and third leading contributors to mortality, with 153 (95% CI 85–216) and 46 attributable deaths (95% CI 26–72), respectively. The leading contributor to health-care facility visits was drinking water pollution, to which 46,600 (95% CI 15,300–61,400) health-care facility visits were attributed (about 15% of the visits for all the diseases considered in this study). Major study limitations included (1) a lack of information needed to translate health-care facility visits to quality-adjusted-life-year estimates and (2) insufficient spatial coverage of environmental data.</p> <p>Conclusions</p><p>Based on international comparisons, the UAE’s environmental disease burden is low for all factors except outdoor air pollution. From a public health perspective, reducing pollutant emissions to outdoor air should be a high priority for the UAE’s environmental agencies.</p> </div