Bayesian Design and Analysis of Small Multifactor Industrial Experiments

PhDUnreplicated two level fractional factorial designs are a common type of experimental design used in the early stages of industrial experimentation. They allow considerable information about the e ects of several factors on the response to be obtained with a relatively small number of runs. The aim of this thesis is to improve the guidance available to experimenters in choosing a good design and analysing data. This is particularly important when there is commercial pressure to minimise the size of the experiment. A design is usually chosen based on optimality, either in terms of a variance criterion or estimability criteria such as resolution. This is given the number of factors, number of levels of each factor and number of runs available. A decision theory approach is explored, which allows a more informed choice of design to be made. Prior distributions on the sizes of e ects are taken into consideration, and then a design chosen from a candidate set of designs using a utility function relevant to the objectives of the experiment. Comparisons of the decision theoretic methods with simple rules of thumb are made to determine when the more complex approach is necessary. Fully Bayesian methods are rarely used in multifactor experiments. However there is virtually always some prior knowledge about the sizes of e ects and so using this in a Bayesian data analysis seems natural. Vague and more informative priors are 6 explored. The analysis of this type of experiment can be impacted in a disastrous way in the presence of outliers. An analysis that is robust to outliers is sought by applying di erent model distributions of the data and prior assumptions on the parameters. Results obtained are compared with those from standard analyses to assess the bene ts of the Bayesian analysis

Odnos između integracije informacijskih sustava, inovacija i praksi utemeljenih na predanosti potrošača za dijeljenje znanja i stvaranja snažnih marki

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to focus on establishing a relationship between the level of consumer commitment through knowledge sharing and what sustains innovation in SMEs through the integration of information systems to build power brands. Design/Methodology/Approach – Several procedures were used to empirically determine the study: a) the Harman one-factor test; b) the common latent factor approach; c) the confirmatory factor-analytic approach to the Harman one-factor test. Findings and implications – The finding highlights the importance of a differentiated approach to developing and managing customer loyalty by appropriately managing and integrating information technology for knowledge sharing with consumers and employees, thus managing innovation for the purpose of power brand deployment and earning profits. Limitations – The review of the related literature is selective rather than comprehensive, and the selection of sample firms is judgmental, making the sample rather skewed demographically. The paper, due to the breadth and complexity of the subject, serves to highlight key issues and bring together ideas. Some topics deserve further explanation. However, this was beyond the scope of this paper. Originality – The main contribution of this paper is that it uniquely identifies an approach to understanding how consumer commitment is sustained through innovation and information system integration. Understanding this approach should lead to effective customer loyalty management and greater awareness of the managing of power brands and the manner in which to foster user loyalty using social media.Svrha – Svrha je rada usredotočiti se na uspostavljanje odnosa između razina potrošačeve predanosti u dijeljenju znanja i onoga što održava inovacije u srednjim i malim poduzećima kroz integraciju informacijskih sustava za izgradnju snažnih marki. Metodološki pristup – U empirijskom istraživanju korišteno je nekoliko postupaka, a to su: a) Harman’s single factor test, b) CLF - Common Latent Factor pristup, c) Konfirmatorna faktorska analiza prema testu Harman’s single factor. Rezultati i implikacije – Nalaz naglašava važnost diferenciranog pristupa u razvoju i upravljanju lojalnošću potrošača, kroz pravilno upravljanje i integriranje informacijske tehnologije za dijeljenje znanja s potrošačima i zaposlenicima, a na taj se način upravlja inovacijama za implementaciju snažne marke i stvaranje profita. Ograničenja – Pregled literature je selektivan, tj. ne obuhvaća sve, dok je odabrani uzorak poduzeća temeljen na procjeni koja je demografski iskrivljena. Zbog dubine i kompleksnosti teme, rad služi da bi istaknuo ključne probleme i približio ideje. Neke teme zaslužuju daljnja objašnjenja. Međutim, to je bilo izvan opsega ovog rada. Doprinos – Glavni je doprinos rada u jedinstvenom identificiranju pristupa za razumijevanje održive potrošačeve predanosti kroz inovacije i integraciju informacijskih sustava. Razumijevanje ovog pristupa trebalo bi voditi prema učinkovitom upravljanju potrošačevom lojalnošću i većoj svjesnosti u upravljanju snažnim markama te poticanju lojalnosti korisnika putem društvenih mreža

Enhanced One Dimensional Modeling for Predicting Concentration of BOD in rivers

To maintain the river water quality it is necessary to predict the concentration of biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) in rivers. Various one dimensional models that  are developed so far  are applicable only after complete mixing of the pollutant across the cross-section is over which may take longer time for rivers with large width. Such type of situations is not represented effectively by the existing one dimensional model. Moreover, many of these one dimensional models do not account for the settle able part of BOD that invariably takes place when partially treated/ untreated waste enters these water bodies. A model is developed that is not more complicated than a one dimensional model but rationally predict the transport of BOD causing pollutant in almost 80% of initial period. The presented model can be used in conditions when partially treated/untreated waste is discharged in rivers with large width. Keywords: Mathematical Model, BOD, Water Pollutio

Ayurvedic Aristology: Dining Etiquette in Ayurveda

GUEST EDITORIA

Endogenous, very small embryonic-like stem cells: Critical review, therapeutic potential and a look ahead

© The Author 2016. BACKGROUND: Both pluripotent very small embryonic-like stem cells (VSELs) and induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells were reported in 2006. In 2012, a Nobel Prize was awarded for iPS technology whereas even today the very existence of VSELs is not well accepted. The underlying reason is that VSELs exist in low numbers, remain dormant under homeostatic conditions, are very small in size and do not pellet down at 250-280g. The VSELs maintain life-long tissue homeostasis, serve as a backup pool for adult stem cells and are mobilized under stress conditions. An imbalance in VSELs function (uncontrolled proliferation) may result in cancer. SEARCH METHODS: The electronic database \u27Medline/Pubmed\u27 was systematically searched with the subject heading term \u27very small embryonic-like stem cells\u27. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE: The most primitive stem cells that undergo asymmetric cell divisions to self-renew and give rise to progenitors still remain elusive in the hematopoietic system and testes, while the presence of stem cells in ovary is still being debated. We propose to review the available literature on VSELs, the methods of their isolation and characterization, their ontogeny, how they compare with embryonic stem (ES) cells, primordial germ cells (PGCs) and iPS cells, and their role in maintaining tissue homeostasis. The review includes a look ahead on how VSELs will result in paradigm shifts in basic reproductive biology. OUTCOMES: Adult tissue-specific stem cells including hematopoietic, spermatogonial, ovarian and mesenchymal stem cells have good proliferation potential and are indeed committed progenitors (with cytoplasmic OCT-4), which arise by asymmetric cell divisions of pluripotent VSELs (with nuclear OCT-4). VSELs are the most primitive stem cells and postulated to be an overlapping population with the PGCs. Rather than migrating only to the gonads, PGCs migrate and survive in various adult body organs throughout life as VSELs. VSELs express both pluripotent and PGC-specific markers and are epigenetically and developmentally more mature compared with ES cells obtained from the inner cell mass of a blastocyst-stage embryo. As a result, VSELs readily differentiate into three embryonic germ layers and spontaneously give rise to both sperm and oocytes in vitro. Like PGCs, VSELs do not divide readily in culture, nor produce teratoma or integrate in the developing embryo. But this property of being relatively quiescent allows endogenous VSELs to survive various kinds of toxic insults. VSELs that survive oncotherapy can be targeted to induce endogenous regeneration of non-functional gonads. Transplanting healthy niche (mesenchymal) cells have resulted in improved gonadal function and live births. WIDER IMPLICATIONS: Being quiescent, VSELs possibly do not accumulate genomic (nuclear or mitochondrial) mutations and thus may be ideal endogenous, pluripotent stem cell candidates for regenerative and reproductive medicine. The presence of VSELs in adult gonads and the fact that they survive oncotherapy may obviate the need to bank gonadal tissue for fertility preservation prior to oncotherapy. VSELs and their ability to undergo spermatogenesis/neo-oogenesis in the presence of a healthy niche will help identify newer strategies toward fertility restoration in cancer survivors, delaying menopause and also enabling aged mothers to have better quality eggs

Administration of BPX-501 Cells Following Αβ T and B-Cell-Depleted HLA Haploidentical HSCT (haplo-HSCT) in Children with Acute Leukemias (AL)

Background Allogeneic HSCT is a well-established treatment for children with AL. For pts lacking a compatible matched related or unrelated donor, HLA-haplo-HSCT represents an alternative. Promising results were reported with selective depletion of αβ T and B cells (Locatelli, Blood 2017). PX-501 is an allogeneic product consisting of T cells modified to express the inducible caspase-9 (iC9) safety switch and truncated CD19 to allow monitoring and expansion of BPX-501 following transplant. BPX-501 provides broad virus and tumor-specific immunity; the safety switch provides the unique ability to promptly and durably resolve graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) symptoms following the administration of rimiducid. Aims Evaluate the safety and efficacy of BPX-501 in pediatric pts with AL by determining whether BPX-501 infusion can increase efficacy outcomes through an enhanced graft-versus-leukemic (GvL) effect, while maintaining a low risk of GvHD. Methods A subset of pts had high-risk ALs. BPX-501 was planned to be infused on day14±4 after the allograft with no post-transplant GvHD prophylaxis allowed. Pts who developed steroid-resistant GvHD could receive ≥1 dose of rimiducid. Results As of June 30, 2018, 100 pts with AL (described in Table 1) were efficacy evaluable. Median time for neutrophil and platelet engraftment was 16 and 12 days, respectively. Four pts (4.1%) experienced primary graft failure. Of 96 evaluable pts, 5 (3.1%) developed Grade III-IV aGvHD. Of 82 evaluable pts, 12 developed cGvHD (18.1%), with 3 moderate-severe. Rimiducid was administered to 10 pts. Best overall clinical response (CR/PR) post-rimiducid was 80% (8 pts). Among responding patients, 7 (87.5%) had a CR. Six (6.6%) pts died after transplantation. Efficacy outcomes in AL subsets are in Table 2. CD3+ and CD3+CD4+ T cells above 500 cells/ml were achieved by 180 and 270 days, respectively. IgA and IgM levels achieved normal values by 180 days. Conclusion BPX-501 following αβ-T and B-cell depleted haplo-HSCT represents a highly effective transplantation strategy for pediatric pts with AL. Rimiducid was an effective treatment for pts with steroid-resistant GvHD

Potentially Heterogeneous Cross-Sectional Associations of Seafood Consumption with Diabetes and Glycemia in Urban South Asia.

Aims: In this study, we aimed to estimate cross-sectional associations of fish or shellfish consumption with diabetes and glycemia in three South Asian mega-cities. Methods: We analyzed baseline data from 2010-2011 of a cohort (n = 16,287) representing the population ≥20 years old that was neither pregnant nor on bedrest from Karachi (unweighted n = 4017), Delhi (unweighted n = 5364), and Chennai (unweighted n = 6906). Diabetes was defined as self-reported physician-diagnosed diabetes, fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dL (7.0 mmol/L), or glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol). We estimated adjusted and unadjusted odds ratios for diabetes using survey estimation logistic regression for each city, and differences in glucose and HbA1c using survey estimation linear regression for each city. Adjusted models controlled for age, gender, body mass index, waist-height ratio, sedentary lifestyle, educational attainment, tobacco use, an unhealthy diet index score, income, self-reported physician diagnosis of high blood pressure, and self-reported physician diagnosis of high cholesterol. Results: The prevalence of diabetes was 26.7% (95% confidence interval: 24.8, 28.6) in Chennai, 36.7% (32.9, 40.5) in Delhi, and 24.3% (22.0, 26.6) in Karachi. Fish and shellfish were consumed more frequently in Chennai than in the other two cities. In Chennai, the adjusted odds ratio for diabetes, comparing more than weekly vs. less than weekly fish consumption, was 0.81 (0.61, 1.08); in Delhi, it was 1.18 (0.87, 1.58), and, in Karachi, it was 1.30 (0.94, 1.80). In Chennai, the adjusted odds ratio of prevalent diabetes among persons consuming shellfish more than weekly versus less than weekly was 1.08 (95% CI: 0.90, 1.30); in Delhi, it was 1.35 (0.90, 2.01), and, in Karachi, it was 1.68 (0.98, 2.86). Conclusions: Both the direction and the magnitude of association between seafood consumption and glycemia may vary by city. Further investigation into specific locally consumed seafoods and their prospective associations with incident diabetes and related pathophysiology are warranted

Population Preferences for Primary Care Models for Hypertension in Karnataka, India

IMPORTANCE Hypertension contributes to more than 1.6 million deaths annually in India, with many individuals being unaware they have the condition or receiving inadequate treatment. Policy initiatives to strengthen disease detection and management through primary care services in India are not currently informed by population preferences. OBJECTIVE To quantify population preferences for attributes of public primary care services for hypertension. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cross-sectional study involved administration of a household survey to a population-based sample of adults with hypertension in the Bengaluru Nagara district (Bengaluru City; urban setting) and the Kolar district (rural setting) in the state of Karnataka, India, from June 22 to July 27, 2021. A discrete choice experiment was designed in which participants selected preferred primary care clinic attributes from hypothetical alternatives. Eligible participants were 30 years or older with a previous diagnosis of hypertension or with measured diastolic blood pressure of 90mmHg or higher or systolic blood pressure of 140mmHg or higher. A total of 1422 of 1927 individuals (73.8%) consented to receive initial screening, and 1150 (80.9%) were eligible for participation, with 1085 (94.3%) of those eligible completing the survey. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Relative preference for health care service attributes and preference class derived from respondents selecting a preferred clinic scenario from 8 sets of hypothetical comparisons based on wait time, staff courtesy, clinician type, carefulness of clinical assessment, and availability of free medication. RESULTS Among 1085 adult respondents with hypertension, the mean (SD) age was 54.4 (11.2) years; 573 participants (52.8%) identified as female, and 918 (84.6%) had a previous diagnosis of hypertension. Overall preferences were for careful clinical assessment and consistent availability of free medication; 3 of 5 latent classes prioritized 1 or both of these attributes, accounting for 85.1%of all respondents. However, the largest class (52.4%of respondents) hadweak preferences distributed across all attributes (largest relative utility for careful clinical assessment: β = 0.13; 95%CI, 0.06-0.20; 36.4%preference share). Two small classes had strong preferences; 1 class (5.4%of respondents) prioritized shorter wait time (85.1%preference share; utility, β = -3.04; 95%CI, -4.94 to -1.14); the posterior probability of membership in this class was higher among urban vs rural respondents (mean [SD], 0.09 [0.26] vs 0.02 [0.13]). The other class (9.5%of respondents) prioritized seeing a physician (the term doctor was used in the survey) rather than a nurse (66.2% preference share; utility, β = 4.01; 95%CI, 2.76-5.25); the posterior probability of membership in this class was greater among rural vs urban respondents (mean [SD], 0.17 [0.35] vs 0.02 [0.10]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this study, stated population preferences suggested that consistent medication availability and quality of clinical assessment should be prioritized in primary care services in Karnataka, India. The heterogeneity observed in population preferences supports considering additional models of care, such as fast-track medication dispensing to reduce wait times in urban settings and physician-led services in rural areas.This study was supported by grant P30AG024409 from the National Institute on Aging of the National Institutes of Health (Program on the Global Demography of Aging, Harvard University) and grant INV-005254 from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Dr Kruk)

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC