Ecological risk assessments to guide decision-making: Methodology matters

Ecological risk assessment is often applied to guide the decision-making process that underpins ecosystem-based management and prioritisation of risk factors for management. Several studies have recently used ecological risk assessment approaches to identify risk factors of greatest concern, but rarely are the underlying methodological decisions discussed in terms of the effect that those decisions have on the outcome of the assessment and ultimately, how that affects prioritisation of risk factors for management. This study therefore evaluates the effect of methodological decisions involving (1) the choice and definition of risk factors, and (2) the calculation of risk scores, providing, where possible, recommendations on what should be the most appropriate methodologies. The definition of risk factors is often determined by the policy context and could result in the comparison of one broadly defined risk meta-factor (e.g. Food Production) with corresponding specific risk factors defined more narrowly (i.e. Oil and Gas production or Offshore Wind). Depending on the method to calculate risk this may result in a systematic bias prioritising any risk meta-factor. For the calculation of individual impact chain risk scores we compared weighted scores with ordinal scores, where the former allows more flexibility to represent the qualitative categories that determine risk and provided results better supported by scientific evidence. A consideration of different risk assessment applications in EBM showed there is no one-size-fits-all solution to this as these methodological decisions need to be considered in concert and the preferred methodology may depend on the context in which the risk assessment is applied. The outcome of the risk assessment should always be accompanied by an explicit consideration of these methodological issues and description of the resulting methodological choices

Haiti: The South African perspective

Background and problem statement. The South African response to the Haitian earthquake consisted of two independent nongovernment organisations (NGOs) working separately with minimal contact. Both teams experienced problems during the deployment, mainly owing to not following the International Search and Rescue Advisory Group (INSARAG) guidelines. Critical areas identified. To improve future South African disaster responses, three functional deployment categories were identified: urban search and rescue, triage and initial stabilisation, and definitive care. To best achieve this, four critical components need to be taken into account: rapid deployment, intelligence from the site, government facilitation, and working under the auspices of recognised organisations such as the United Nations and the World Health Organization. Conclusion. The proposed way forward for South African medical teams responding to disasters is to be unified under a leading academic body, to have an up-to-date volunteer database, and for volunteers to be current with the international search and rescue course currently being developed by the Medical Working Group of INSARAG. An additional consideration is that South African rescue and relief personnel have a primary responsibility to the citizens of South Africa, then the Southern African Development Community region, then the rest of the African continent and finally further afield. The commitment of government, private and military health services as well as NGOs is paramount for a unified response

Detection and linkage to mobile genetic elements of tetracycline resistance gene tet(M) in Escherichia coli isolates from pigs

BACKGROUND: In Escherichia coli the genes involved in the acquisition of tetracycline resistance are mainly tet(A) and tet(B). In addition, tet(M) is the most common tetracycline resistance determinant in enterococci and it is associated with conjugative transposons and plasmids. Although tet(M) has been identified in E. coli, to our knowledge, there are no previous reports studying the linkage of the tet(M) gene in E. coli to different mobile genetic elements. The aim of this study was to determine the occurrence of tet(A), tet(B), and tet(M) genes in doxycycline-resistant E. coli isolates from pigs, as well as the detection of mobile genetic elements linked to tet(M) in E. coli and its possible transfer from enterococci. RESULTS: tet(A) was the most frequently detected gene (87.9%) in doxycycline-resistant isolates. tet(M) was found in 13.1% E. coli isolates. The tet(M) gene was detected in relation with conjugative transposons in 10 out of 36 enterococci isolates analyzed but not in any of E. coli isolates positive for tet(M). Southern blot showed that in E. coli and in most of the enterococci isolates the tet(M) gene was carried on a plasmid. According to the phylogenetic analysis, E. coli contained a new tet(M) allele grouping separately. Mating experiments revealed that tet(M) was carried on a mobile element successfully transferred between enterococci and between enterococci and E. coli. CONCLUSIONS: The detection of tet(M) in E. coli isolates from pigs was higher than expected. In our study, tet(M) detected in E. coli seems not to have been transferred from enterococci, although it can not be ruled out that the horizontal transfer of this gene occurred from other intestinal tract bacteria

Evaluation of ecosystem-based marine management strategies based on risk assessment

Abstract This study presents a comprehensive and generic framework that provides a typology for the identification and selection of consistently defined ecosystem-based management measures and allows a coherent evaluation of these measures based on their performance to achieve policy objectives. The performance is expressed in terms of their reduction of risk of an adverse impact on the marine ecosystem. This typology consists of two interlinked aspects of a measure, i.e. the “Focus” and the “Type”. The “Focus” is determined by the part of the impact chain (Driver–Pressure–State) the measure is supposed to mitigate or counteract. The “Type” represents the physical measure itself in terms of how it affects the impact chain directly; we distinguish Spatio-temporal distribution controls, Input and Output controls, Remediation and Restoration measures. The performance of these measures in terms of their reduction in risk of adverse impacts was assessed based on an explicit consideration of three time horizons: past, present and future. Application of the framework in an integrated management strategy evaluation of a suite of measures, shows that depending on the time horizon, different measures perform best. “Past” points to measures targeting persistent pressures (e.g. marine litter) from past activities. “Present” favors measures targeting a driver (e.g. fisheries) that has a high likelihood of causing adverse impacts. “Future” involves impacts that both have a high likelihood of an adverse impact, as well as a long time to return to pre-impacted condition after the implementation of appropriate management, e.g. those caused by permanent infrastructure or persistent pressures such as marine litter or specific types of pollution

A low-power high-speed InP microdisk modulator heterogeneously integrated on a SOI waveguide

We report on the modulation characteristics of indium phosphide (InP) based microdisks heterogeneously integrated on a silicon–on–insulator (SOI) waveguide. We present static extinction ratios and dynamic operation up to 10 Gb/s. Operation with a bit–error rate below 1 × 10-9 is demonstrated at 2.5, 5.0 and 10.0 Gb/s and the performance is compared with that of a commercial modulator. Power penalties are analyzed with respect to the pattern length. The power consumption is calculated and compared with state–of–the–art integrated modulator concepts. We demonstrate that InP microdisk modulators combine low–power and low–voltage operation with low footprint and high–speed. Moreover, the devices can be fabricated using the same technology as for lasers, detectors and wavelength converters, making them very attractive for co–integration

A 2MASS Analysis of the Stability of Southern Bok Globules

We used near-infrared 2MASS data to construct visual extinction maps of a sample of Southern Bok globules utilizing the NICE method. We derived radial extinction profiles of dense cores identified in the globules and analyzed their stability against gravitational collapse with isothermal Bonnor-Ebert spheres. The frequency distribution of the stability parameter xi_max of these cores shows that a large number of them are located in stable states, followed by an abrupt decrease of cores in unstable states. This decrease is steeper for globules with associated IRAS point sources than for starless globules. Moreover, globules in stable states have a Bonnor-Ebert temperature of T = 15 +- 6 K, while the group of critical plus unstable globules has a different temperature of T = 10 +- 3 K. Distances were estimated to all the globules studied in this work and the spectral class of the IRAS sources was calculated. No variations were found in the stability parameters of the cores and the spectral class of their associated IRAS sources. On the basis of 13CO J = 1-0 molecular line observations, we identified and modeled a blue-assymetric line profile toward a globule of the sample, obtaining an upper limit infall speed of 0.25 km/s.Comment: 53 pages, 15 figures, accepted for publication in Ap