On the Welfare Costs of Business-Cycle Fluctuations and Economic-Growth Variation in the 20th Century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost ofbusiness cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computingwelfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming frombusiness-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major differences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values -β=0.985, and ∅=5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% - the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business- cycle fluctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same figures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

The use of adaptive predictor filter as a trigger mechanism in simulated cosmic rays radio signals corrupted with Gaussian noise

Adaptive filtering belongs to the realm of learning algorithms, widely used in our daily life in the context of machine learning, artificial intelligence, pattern recognition, etc. It is formally defined as a self-designing device with time-varying parameters that are adjusted recursively in accordance with the input data. The trigger mechanism is a central task in experiments using antennas to detect cosmic rays as it selects a cosmic- ray induced signal among all the voltages traces events that reach the antennas. This work presents the efficiency of a trigger mechanism developed using the adaptive predictor filter technique, whose capability is well known for time series prediction usage. This technique is independent of an external detector, using only the online temporal field recorded by the antennas in a simulated data set and Gaussian noise

A experiência da fé como um meio socializador

Este artigo é resultado de pesquisas sobre a interferência da religião no processo desocialização do sujeito e tem como objetivo mostrar o impacto da opção por Jesus Cristo na vida pessoal e da comunidade. Sua categoria central é o acontecimento: encontro com Jesus. Dentro de um movimento dialético, esse acontecimento transforma o sujeito e a sociedade, faz do crente um protagonista, um sujeito ativo, um produtor de sentidos e valores para sua geração e as futuras. As pesquisas demonstram que basta à pessoa buscar Jesus Cristo e ser por ele desafiada, incomodada, desestabilizada, para que desperte nela a alegria e o entusiasmo de viver as bem-aventuranças. O texto traz dois exemplos selecionados entre as quinze lideranças estudadas, que se declararam seguidoras de Jesus e organizaram uma comunidade cristã católica ou protestante. A metodologia utilizada na pesquisa foi a de estudo de caso

Higher expression of Th1/Th2‐related cytokines in the intestine of Wistar rats with ligature‐induced periodontitis

Objective: This study aimed to investigate the impact of ligature-induced periodontitis (LIP) on histopathological and immunological outcomes in the colon of Wistar rats. Background: It has been repeatedly shown that inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients are at higher risk of developing periodontitis and presenting worse oral health than non-IBD patients. However, whether the chronic inflammatory process around teeth contributes to the pathophysiology of IBD needs to be further explored. Materials and Methods: Thirteen Wistar rats were allocated into LIP (n = 7) and controls (n = 6). Half of the colon was processed for histopathological analyses and immunohistochemical (CD45); the other half was homogenized for immunological analyses. Periodontal destruction was confirmed by measuring the distance from the cementum-enamel junction to the mandible's apical position of the mesial interproximal bone. The immunological analyses were performed with the Bio-Plex Th1/Th2 assay. Results: There was a significantly higher interproximal bone loss in LIP compared to controls. The LIP group showed a moderate infiltrate of inflammatory cells, predominantly mononucleated cells in the intestinal tissues. There was significantly higher expression of GM-CSF, IFN-γ, IL-1α, IL-1β, IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-10, IL-12 (p70), IL-13, and TNF-α in the intestinal tissues of LIP group compared to controls. Conclusion: Ligature-induced periodontitis was associated with an overexpression of Th1/Th2-related cytokines in the colon of Wistar rats

Alien spiders: First record of Loxosceles gaucho Gertsch, 1967 (Araneae: Sicariidae) in the Amazon region, Brazil

We present the first record for Loxosceles gaucho Gertsch, 1967 in the Amazonian region of Brazil. Four males, fifteen females and forty-nine immatures were collected in different places in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. This is the third species of Loxosceles reported in the Amazon region along with L. amazonica Gertsch, 1967, and L. similis Moenkhaus, 1898. This is the first record of an invasive species of a venomous animal in the state of Amazonas, Brazil, which is noteworthy due to its synanthropic habit, which increases the risk to the local population

Representation of Black Men and Women Characters in Children\u27s Literature: Breaking with the Hegemonic Culture

This article is the result of a doctoral research and from the reflections and researches developed by the Social Pedagogy Group. The main objective is to analyze the discourses carried in children\u27s literature from a post-structuralist perspective and some notes by Foucault on the articulation between discourse, power, and knowledge. For the analysis and understanding of the speeches and the textual and iconographic forms conveyed on the black and black characters, we use children\u27s works produced after the promulgation of Law 10.639/2003, which established the inclusion in the official curriculum of the teaching network of the subject matter "History and Afro-Brazilian Culture". Our initial hypothesis was that discourses on black and black characters, as well as their culture, ancestry, and especially religiosity, kept the operationalization of racism. From the theoretical-methodological point of view, the research is qualitative of an ethnographic nature