glmulti: An R Package for Easy Automated Model Selection with (Generalized) Linear Models

We introduce <b>glmulti</b>, an <b>R</b> package for automated model selection and multi-model inference with glm and related functions. From a list of explanatory variables, the provided function glmulti builds all possible unique models involving these variables and, optionally, their pairwise interactions. Restrictions can be specified for candidate models, by excluding specific terms, enforcing marginality, or controlling model complexity. Models are fitted with standard <b>R</b> functions like glm. The n best models and their support (e.g., (Q)AIC, (Q)AICc, or BIC) are returned, allowing model selection and multi-model inference through standard <b>R</b> functions. The package is optimized for large candidate sets by avoiding memory limitation, facilitating parallelization and providing, in addition to exhaustive screening, a compiled genetic algorithm method. This article briefly presents the statistical framework and introduces the package, with applications to simulated and real data

Linking the Green and Brown Worlds: the Prevalence and Effect of Multichannel Feeding in Food Webs

Recent advances in food‐web ecology highlight that most real food webs (1) represent an interplay between producer‐ and detritus‐based webs and (2) are governed by consumers which are rampant omnivores; feeding on varied prey across trophic levels and resource channels. A possible avenue to unify these advances comes from models demonstrating that predators feeding on distinctly different channels may stabilize food webs. Empirical studies suggest many consumers engage in such behavior by feeding on prey items from both living‐autotroph (green) and detritus‐based (brown) webs, what we term “multichannel feeding,” yet we know little about how common such feeding is across systems and trophic levels, or its effect on system stability. Considering 23 empirical webs, we find that multichannel feeding is equally common across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems, with \u3e50% of consumers classified as multichannel consumers. Multichannel feeding occurred most often at the first consumer level, indicating that most taxa at the herbivore/detritivore level are more aptly described as multichannel consumers, and that such feeding is not restricted to predators. We next developed a simple four‐compartment nutrient cycling model for consumers eating both autotrophs and detritus with separate parameter sets to represent aquatic vs. terrestrial ecosystems. Modeling results showed that, across terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, multichannel feeding is stabilizing at low attack rates on autotrophs or when attack rates are asymmetric (moderate on autotrophs while low on detritus), but destabilizing at high attack rates on autotrophs, compared to herbivory‐ or detritivory‐only models. The set of conditions with stable webs with multichannel consumers is narrower, however, for aquatic systems, suggesting that multichannel feeding may generally be more stabilizing in terrestrial systems. Together, our results demonstrate that multichannel feeding is common across ecosystems and may be a stabilizing force in real webs that have consumers with low or asymmetric attack rates

Synchronous dynamics of zooplankton competitors prevail in temperate lake ecosystems

Although competing species are expected to exhibit compensatory dynamics (negative temporal covariation), empirical work has demonstrated that competitive communities often exhibit synchronous dynamics (positive temporal covariation). This has led to the suggestion that environmental forcing dominates species dynamics; however, synchronous and compensatory dynamics may appear at different length scales and/or at different times, making it challenging to identify their relative importance. We compiled 58 long-term datasets of zooplankton abundance in north-temperate and sub-tropical lakes and used wavelet analysis to quantify general patterns in the times and scales at which synchronous/compensatory dynamics dominated zooplankton communities in different regions and across the entire dataset. Synchronous dynamics were far more prevalent at all scales and times and were ubiquitous at the annual scale. Although we found compensatory dynamics in approximately 14% of all combinations of time period/scale/lake, there were no consistent scales or time periods during which compensatory dynamics were apparent across different regions. Our results suggest that the processes driving compensatory dynamics may be local in their extent, while those generating synchronous dynamics operate at much larger scales. This highlights an important gap in our understanding of the interaction between environmental and biotic forces that structure communities

General statistical scaling laws for stability in ecological systems

Ecological stability refers to a family of concepts used to describe how systems of interacting species vary through time and respond to disturbances. Because observed ecological stability depends on sampling scales and environmental context, it is notoriously difficult to compare measurements across sites and systems. Here, we apply stochastic dynamical systems theory to derive general statistical scaling relationships across time, space, and ecological level of organisation for three fundamental stability aspects: resilience, resistance, and invariance. These relationships can be calibrated using random or representative samples measured at individual scales, and projected to predict average stability at other scales across a wide range of contexts. Moreover deviations between observed vs. extrapolated scaling relationships can reveal information about unobserved heterogeneity across time, space, or species. We anticipate that these methods will be useful for cross-study synthesis of stability data, extrapolating measurements to unobserved scales, and identifying underlying causes and consequences of heterogeneity

Biotic homogenization destabilizes ecosystem functioning by decreasing spatial asynchrony

Our planet is facing significant changes of biodiversity across spatial scales. Although the negative effects of local biodiversity (α diversity) loss on ecosystem stability are well documented, the consequences of biodiversity changes at larger spatial scales, in particular biotic homogenization, that is, reduced species turnover across space (β diversity), remain poorly known. Using data from 39 grassland biodiversity experiments, we examine the effects of β diversity on the stability of simulated landscapes while controlling for potentially confounding biotic and abiotic factors. Our results show that higher β diversity generates more asynchronous dynamics among local communities and thereby contributes to the stability of ecosystem productivity at larger spatial scales. We further quantify the relative contributions of α and β diversity to ecosystem stability and find a relatively stronger effect of α diversity, possibly due to the limited spatial scale of our experiments. The stabilizing effects of both α and β diversity lead to a positive diversity–stability relationship at the landscape scale. Our findings demonstrate the destabilizing effect of biotic homogenization and suggest that biodiversity should be conserved at multiple spatial scales to maintain the stability of ecosystem functions and services

Why do forests respond differently to nitrogen deposition? A modelling approach

International audienceElevated reactive nitrogen deposition can result in declines in belowground C allocation to mycorrhiza, potentially threatening the sustainability of forest ecosystems, especially with regard to ongoing global environmental changes. Previous studies showed that the vulnerability of mycorrhiza differs in different forests. In this paper, we introduce a model that explains such differences as resulting from the optimization of belowground tree C investment in forests with inorganic or organic N economy. According to the model, the optimization of belowground tree C investment in forests with organic N economy is governed by indirect competition between trees for available forms of N. We predict decreasing C investment in mycorrhiza with N deposition in systems dominated by an organic N economy. In contrast, in forests with inorganic N economy the optimization of belowground tree C investment is governed by direct competition between trees for available forms of N. We show that C investment in mycorrhiza does not depend on N deposition in the case of inorganic N economy. Parameterizing the model with data from spruce and beech temperate forests, we show that spruce forests are more sensitive to N deposition with a decrease of tree investment in mycorrhiza, which seems to be consistent with empirical findings. As mycorrhizae are essential for nutrients and water acquisition in trees, we suggest our approach could contribute to predicting the responses of forests to global environmental changes

Removing phosphorus from ecosystems through nitrogen fertilization and cutting with removal of biomass

High amounts of phosphorus (P) are in soil of former farmland due to previous fertilizer additions. Draining these residues would provide conditions for grassland plant species diversity restoration amongst other ecosystem benefits. Nitrogen (N) fertilization followed by cutting with subsequent removal of biomass has been suggested as a P residue removal method. We present a general model of N and P ecosystem cycling with nutrients coupled in plant biomass. We incorporate major P pools and biological and physico-chemical fluxes around the system together with transfers into and out of the system given several decades of management. We investigate conditions where N addition and cutting accelerate fertilizer P draining. Cutting does not generally accelerate soil P depletion under short-term management because the benefits of biomass removal through decreased P mineralization occur on too long a timescale compared to cutting's impact on the ability of plants to deplete nutrients. Short-term N fertilization lowers soil fertilizer P residues, provided plant growth remains N limited. In such situations, N fertilization without biomass removal increases soil organic P. Some scenarios show significant reductions in available P following N addition, but many situations record only marginal decreases in problematic soil P pools compared to the unfertilized state. We provide explicit conditions open to experimental testing. Cutting might have minimal adverse impacts, but will take time to be successful. N fertilization either alone or in combination with cutting is more likely to bring about desired reductions in P availability thus allowing grassland restoration, but might have undesired ecosystem consequences