Prediction of reactionary delay and cost using machine learning

Estimating the potential propagation of delay (and its associated cost) is crucial for the management of the fleet the day of operations. As the flight departure approaches, these estimations need to be as accurate as possible to support pre-tactical and tactical interventions aiming at minimising the network disruption. Dispatcher3 project aims at the use of machine learning models for the prediction and analysis of differences between planned and executed flight plans. Models corresponding to different time-horizons (from departure time to 15 hours before) are developed to predict the flying and turnaround times. These models are combined (with other operational parameters) to estimate reactionary delay and associated expected costs (including potential breaching of curfews). The outcome (delay and costs) is presented as probability distributions. This information could be used to support the flight planning process and the management of the fleet

Dispatcher3 D7.1 - Project communication, dissemination and exploitation plan

This document is the Communication, Dissemination and Exploitation Plan (D7.1) of the Clean Sky 2 Innovation Action Dispatcher3. The document defines the communication and dissemination actions to be performed during the project, and the potential exploitation of the project results. A complete strategy of communication is presented, as well as the items and content already prepared for it

Dispatcher3 D1.1 - Technical resources and problem definition

This deliverable starts with the proposal of Dispatcher3 and incorporates the development produced during the first five months of the project: activities on different workpackages, interaction with Topic Manager and Project Officer, and input received during the first Advisory Board meeting and follow up consultations. This deliverable presents the definition of Dispatcher3 concept and methodology. It includes the high level the requirements of the prototype, preliminary data requirements, preliminary technical infrastructure requirements, preliminary data processing and analytic techniques identification and a preliminary definition of scenarios. The deliverable aims at defining the view of the consortium on the project at these early stages, incorporating the feedback obtained from the Advisory Board and highlighting the further activities required to define some of the aspects of the project

Pre-Tactical Prediction of Atfm Delay for Individual Flights

The day prior operations, the operation plan is drawn generating a first set of flight plans with the objective of identifying potential network issues and preparing pre-tactical preventing measures. During the day of operation flight plans will be updated and pre-tactical actions implemented if needed by the duty manager, in order to minimise the propagation of disruption in the network. This paper focuses on the estimation of ATFM delay for individual flights during the pre-tactical phase. The main objective is to anticipate which flights might be affected by ATFM regulations and the amount of delay will be assigned to them

A software engine for multi-criteria decision support in flight management - Use of dynamic cost functions - Architecture and first results

Tactical trajectory optimisation should consider the total expected cost of the flight (fuel and delay). The cost of fuel can be estimated from the expected fuel usage. The cost of delay can be approximated by simple non-linear functions but, we propose a methodology to explicitly consider its different components: passenger related (regulation 261, duty of care, missed connections and soft costs), crew and maintenance, and reactionary costs (delay and curfew). This explicit modelling captures the non-continuous aspects of the cost function, which can significantly impact the optimisation profile, e.g. ensure that missed connections are reduced. The cost of delay, dependent on the arrival time at the gate, can be subject to uncertainties which are inherent (e.g. if a passenger will or not miss a connection) and external (e.g. taxi-in or holding times). Therefore, the optimisation framework should estimate the arrival time to the gate (not the runway) while considering these associated uncertainties. The described architecture models the processes affecting the cost (e.g. considering probabilities of missed connections or explicit propagation of delay) and operational aspects at arrival which impact the realisation of the planned optimised trajectory (holding time, sequencing and merging distance (tromboning), and taxi-in time). The consideration of the operational uncertainties enables the estimation of the probability of achieving the flight on-time performance. All these operational uncertainties are integrated into the cost function producing a total expected cost as a function of arrival to FL100 during the descent at the arrival airport. The trajectory is then optimised in its vertical and speed profile finding the cost index which is expected to minimise the total costs with a simulated annealing framework. The first results presented describe how the cost functions are generated, uncertainties considered and trajectories optimised for a flight in the LEDM-EDDF route

Speed and entropy of an interacting continuous time quantum walk

We present some dynamic and entropic considerations about the evolution of a continuous time quantum walk implementing the clock of an autonomous machine. On a simple model, we study in quite explicit terms the Lindblad evolution of the clocked subsystem, relating the evolution of its entropy to the spreading of the wave packet of the clock. We explore possible ways of reducing the generation of entropy in the clocked subsystem, as it amounts to a deficit in the probability of finding the target state of the computation. We are thus lead to examine the benefits of abandoning some classical prejudice about how a clocking mechanism should operate.Comment: 25 pages, 14 figure

GPUs Based Material Point Method for Compressible Flows

Particle-In-Cell (PIC) methods such as the Material Point Method (MPM) can be cast in formulations suitable to the requirements of data locality and fine-grained parallelism of modern hardware accelerators such as Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). While continuum mechanics simulations have already shown the capabilities of MPM on a wide range of phenomena, the use of the method in compressible gas dynamics is less frequent. This contribution aims to show the potential of a GPU-based MPM parallel implementation for compressible fluid dynamics, as well as to assess the reliability of this approach in reproducing supersonic gas flows against solid obstacles. The results in the paper represent a stepping stone towards a highly parallel, Multi-GPU, MPM-base solver for M ach > 1 Fluid-Structure Interaction problems

An Integral Formulation for Rectangular Wires in a 3D Magneto-Quasi-Static Field

This paper proposes an integral formulation for calculating the magnetic and ohmic losses in rectangular wires immersed in an external 3D magneto-quasi-static field. The formulation is based on some simplifying assumptions that allow to employ a collocation method with constant elements for the discretization, reducing the computational burden. Even if the assumptions introduce an approximation, for the application at hand the numerical tests have shown that the accuracy is still acceptable. Moreover, the computational time is drastically reduced with respect to other approaches based on the finite element method

Editorial: Molecular Mechanisms of Pathogen-Driven Infectious and Neoplastic Diseases

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