Adaptation to climate change: Air-conditioning and the role of remittances

Do remittances improve the ability of households to adapt to global warming? We try to answer this question by studying the behaviours of households in Mexico, a country that experiences a large and stable flow of remittances. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find an important role of remittances in the climate adaptation process. Remittances are used for adopting air-conditioning, which is an important cooling device for responding to high temperatures and to maintain thermal comfort at home. We exploit climate and income heterogeneity by showing that large differences exist in the use of remittances for climate adaptation between coastal and inland regions, as well as among different income groups. We conclude by quantifying the overall increase in welfare that households attain by adopting air-conditioning

Laparoscopic hyperthermic isolated limb perfusion a new minimally invasive approach for HILP

Hyperthermic isolated limb perfusion (HILP) represents a limb-sparing treatment for unresectable soft tissue sarcoma (STS) of the extremities with substantial complete response rates. HILP often provides good functional limb preservation, hence a significant improvement also in terms of quality of life of the patient. Notwithstanding these clear advantages, the traditional technique is still hindered by relatively high post-operative morbidity.We treated a 78-year-old female with unresectable angiosarcoma of the left leg using a new surgical approach: an entirely laparoscopic HILP.No conversion from laparoscopic to "open" surgery was necessary. Since no abdominal muscle section was performed, post-operative pain was low and easily manageable; early mobilisation and early discharge were achieved. Patient developed moderate toxicity, which resolved spontaneously within 3-4 weeks, with complete return to normal daily activities after 30 d. Complete clinical response with preservation of leg function was obtained.We describe for the first time an entirely laparoscopic HILP. Demonstration of this technique's efficacy and safety on a large series of patients is clearly necessary but its therapeutic efficacy appears to be comparable to the standard technique. Furthermore, laparoscopic HILP has shown low post-operative morbidity: no wound complications, mild and easily manageable post-operative pain and early discharge from the hospital and early resuming of daily activities

Intensive and extensive margins of the peak load: Measuring adaptation with mixed frequency panel data

In this work we investigate the response of daily electricity peak load to daily maximum temperatures across states in Europe and India. We propose a method that decomposes short- from medium/long-run effects, retains the high frequency nature of the load-weather covariation and treats economic growth as a modulating factor. By simultaneously exploiting variation in unexpected daily weather anomalies and decade-long climatic changes in each location we decompose transitory - intensive margin - adjustments from permanent - extensive margin - adjustments. We find that the shocks over the long-run differ substantially from the short-run dynamics. Furthermore, we find evidence that per capita income modulates the adjustments over the short- and long-run. We project that in response to climate change around 2050 the peak load may increase by up to 20%-30% in Southern Europe and in several states in India, depending on the degree of warming and the evolution of socio-economic conditions. Even with a limited scope to two world regions, we identify that the structure of the economy and differences in future income growth matter in shaping the adaptation to climate change. Our decomposition allows to identify how future weather anomalies can further amplify the relative increase associated to the shift in the climate norm. Assuming that the interannual variability of maximum temperatures follows the distribution observed in the past, we find a doubling of the impacts of climate change during the summer in Europe. Uncertainty around the distribution of future weather anomalies may lead to further unexpected peak load amplifications. Our results have important policy implications for power systems’ generation capacity, transmission and storage, as we show that the challenges to accommodate the peak load in days with extreme temperatures may substantially increase already around mid-century

Air-conditioning adoption and electricity demand highlight climate change mitigation–adaptation tradeoffs

We elucidate mid-century climate change impacts on electricity demand accounting for endogenous adoption of residential air-conditioning (AC) in affluent, cooler countries in Europe, and in poorer, hotter states in India. By 2050, in a high-warming scenario (SSP585) AC prevalence grows twofold in Europe and fourfold in India, reaching around 40% in both regions. We document a mitigation adaptation tradeoff: AC expansion reduces daily heat exposures by 150 million and 3.8 billion person degree-days (PDDs), but increases annual electricity demand by 34 TWh and 168 TWh in Europe and India, respectively (corresponding to 2% and 15% of today's consumption). The increase in adoption and use of AC would result in an additional 130 MMTCO2, of which 120 MMTCO2 in India alone, if the additional electricity generated were produced with today's power mix. The tradeoff varies geographically and across income groups: a one PDD reduction in heat exposure in Europe versus India necessitates five times more electricity (0.53 kWh vs 0.1 kWh) and two times more emissions (0.16 kgCO(2) vs 0.09 kgCO(2)), on average. The decomposition of demand drivers offers important insights on how such tradeoff can be moderated through policies promoting technology-based and behavioral based adaptation strategies

Alleviating inequality in climate policy costs: An integrated perspective on mitigation, damage and adaptation

Equity considerations play an important role in international climate negotiations. While policy analysis has often focused on equity as it relates to mitigation costs, there are large regional differences in adaptation costs and the level of residual damage. This paper illustrates the relevance of including adaptation and residual damage in equity considerations by determining how the allocation of emission allowances would change to counteract regional differences in total climate costs, defined as the costs of mitigation, adaptation, and residual damage. We compare emission levels resulting from a global carbon tax with two allocations of emission allowances under a global cap-and-trade system: one equating mitigation costs and one equating total climate costs as share of GDP. To account for uncertainties in both mitigation and adaptation, we use a model-comparison approach employing two alternative modeling frameworks with different damage, adaptation cost, and mitigation cost estimates, and look at two different climate goals. Despite the identified model uncertainties, we derive unambiguous results on the change in emission allowance allocation that could lessen the unequal distribution of adaptation costs and residual damages through the financial transfers associated with emission trading

Predictors of morbidity and mortality in patients submitted to cytoreductive surgery plus hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy for ovarian carcinomatosis: A multicenter study

The aim of this retrospective study is to assess the incidence of morbidity and mortality related to cytoreductive surgery (CRS) plus hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) and to evaluate their predictors, in patients with peritoneal metastasis of ovarian origin. A retrospective multicenter study was carried out investigating results from eight Italian institutions. A total of 276 patients met inclusion criteria. Predictors of morbidity and mortality were evaluated with univariate and multivariate analysis. Overall morbidity was 71.4%, and severe complications occurred in 23.9% of the sample; 60-day mortality was 4.3%. According to univariate logistic regression models, grade 3-4 morbidity was related to Peritoneal Cancer Index (PCI) (OR 1.06; 95% CI 1.02-1.09; p<0.001), number of intraoperative blood transfusions (OR 1.21; 95% CI 1.10-1.34; p<0.001), Completeness of Cytoreduction (CC) score (OR 1.68; 95% CI 1.16-2.44; p=0.006) and number of anastomoses (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.00-1.73; p=0.046). However, at the multivariate logistic regression analysis, only the number of intraoperative blood transfusions (OR 1.17; 95% CI 1.5-1.30; p=0.004) and PCI (OR 1.04; 95% CI 1.01-1.08; p=0.010) resulted as key predictors of severe morbidity. Furthermore, using multivariate logistic regression model, ECOG score (OR 2.45; 95% CI 1.21-4.93; p=0.012) and the number of severe complications (OR 2.16; 95% CI 1.03-4.52; p=0.042) were recorded as predictors of exitus within 60 days. The combination of CRS and HIPEC for treating peritoneal metastasis of ovarian origin has acceptable morbidity and mortality and, therefore, it can be considered as an option in selected patients

Impacts of a warmer world on space cooling demand in Brazilian households

Air Conditioning (AC) appliances are a highly effective adaptation strategy to rising temperatures, thus making future climate conditions an important driver of space cooling energy demand. The main goal of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change on Cooling Degree Days computed with wet-bulb temperature (CDDwb) and household space cooling demand in Brazil. We compare the needs under three specific warming levels (SWLs) scenarios (1.5 °C, 2 °C and 4 °C) to a baseline with historically observed meteorological parameters by combining CDDwb projections with an end-use model to evaluate the energy requirements of air conditioning. The effects of the climate change were isolated, and no future expansion in AC ownership considered. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions associated with AC energy demand are also calculated. Results show an increase in both average CDDwb and AC electricity consumption for the global warming scenarios in all Brazilian regions. The Northern region shows the highest increase in CDDwb (187% in CDDwb for SWL 4 °C), while the Southeast presents the highest AC energy consumption response (326% in the AC energy consumption for SWL 4 °C) compared to the baseline. At the national level, CDDwb and the AC energy consumption in all SWLs scenarios grow by 70%, 99% and 190%, respectively

Inequalities in global residential cooling energy use to 2050

Intersecting socio-demographic transformations and warming climates portend increasing worldwide heat exposures and health sequelae. Cooling adaptation via air conditioning (AC) is effective, but energy-intensive and constrained by household-level differences in income and adaptive capacity. Using statistical models trained on a large multi-country household survey dataset (n = 673,215), we project AC adoption and energy use to mid-century at fine spatial resolution worldwide. Globally, the share of households with residential AC could grow from 27% to 41% (range of scenarios assessed: 33-48%), implying up to a doubling of residential cooling electricity consumption, from 1220 to 1940 (scenarios range: 1590-2377) terawatt-hours yr.-1, emitting between 590 and 1,365 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e). AC access and utilization will remain highly unequal within and across countries and income groups, with significant regressive impacts. Up to 4 billion people may lack air-conditioning in 2050. Our global gridded projections facilitate incorporation of AC's vulnerability, health, and decarbonization effects into integrated assessments of climate change

Ligand selectivity in stabilising tandem parallel folded G-quadruplex motifs in human telomeric DNA sequences

Biophysical studies of ligand interactions with three human telomeric repeat sequences (d(AGGG(TTAGGG)n, n = 3, 7 and 11)) show that an oxazole-based ‘click’ ligand, which induces parallel folded quadruplexes, preferentially stabilises longer telomeric repeats providing evidence for selectivity in binding at the interface between tandem quadruplex motifs

Plan or React? Analysis of Adaptation Costs and Benefits Using Integrated Assessment Models

This report examines adaptation and mitigation within an integrated framework. Global and regional costs of adaptation are assessed dynamically and the resulting benefits are quantified. This is accomplished by developing a framework to incorporate adaptation as a policy variable within three Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs); the global Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE), the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE), and the World Induced Technical Change Hybrid (WITCH) model. The framework developed here takes into account investments in reactive adaptation and in adaptation “stocks”, as well as investments in building adaptive capacity. This report presents the first inter-model comparison of results on adaptation costs using the emerging category of adaptation-IAMs. Results show that least-cost policy response to climate change will need to involve subsantial amounts of mitigation efforts, investments in adaptation stock, reactive adaptation measures and adaptive capacity to limit the remaining damages