Scoping the potential usefulness of seasonal climate forecasts for solar power management

Solar photovoltaic energy is widespread worldwide and particularly in Europe, which became in 2016 the first region in the world to pass the 100 GW of installed capacity. As with all the renewable energy sources, for an effective management of solar power, it is essential to have reliable and accurate information about weather/climate conditions that affect the production of electricity. Operations in the solar energy industry are normally based on daily (or intra-daily) forecasts. Nevertheless, information about the incoming months can be relevant to support and inform operational and maintenance activities. This paper discusses a methodology to assess whether a seasonal climate forecast can provide a useful prediction for a specific sector, in this paper the European solar power industry. After evaluating the quality of the forecasts in providing probabilistic information for solar radiation, we describe how to assess their potential usefulness for a generic user by proposing an approach that takes into account not only their accuracy but also other potentially relevant factors. This approach is called index of opportunity and is then illustrated by presenting an example for the European solar power sector. The index of opportunity provides indications about where and when seasonal climate forecasts can benefit the decision-making in the photovoltaic sector. Even more importantly, it suggests an approach on how to evaluate their usefulness for the user's decision-making. This approach has the advantage of not limiting the definition of the usefulness only to the quality of the forecasts but rather considering, in an explicit way, all the factors that must be combined with the forecast's quality to define what is useful or not for the user

Observationally based analysis of land–atmosphere coupling

Abstract. The temporal variance of soil moisture, vegetation and evapotranspiration over land has been recognized to be strongly connected to the temporal variance of precipitation. However, the feedbacks and couplings between these variables are still not well understood and quantified. Furthermore, soil moisture and vegetation processes are associated with a memory and therefore they may have important implications for predictability. In this study we apply a generalized linear method, specifically designed to assess the reciprocal forcing between connected fields, to the latest available observational data sets of global precipitation, evapotranspiration, vegetation and soil moisture content. For the first time a long global observational data set is used to investigate the spatial and temporal land variability and to characterize the relationships and feedbacks between land and precipitation. The variables considered show a significant coupling among each other. The analysis of the response of precipitation to soil moisture evidences a robust coupling between these two variables. In particular, the first two modes of variability in the precipitation forced by soil moisture appear to have a strong link with volcanic eruptions and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles, respectively, and these links are modulated by the effects of evapotranspiration and vegetation. It is suggested that vegetation state and soil moisture provide a biophysical memory of ENSO and major volcanic eruptions, revealed through delayed feedbacks on rainfall patterns. The third mode of variability reveals a trend very similar to the trend of the inter-hemispheric contrast in sea surface temperature (SST) and appears to be connected to greening/browning trends of vegetation over the last three decades

Tumour sublines with different metastatic capacity induce similar blood coagulation changes in the host.

This paper is aimed at investigating how metastatic tumour growth influenced the haemostatic system of the host. Blood platelet count, blood fibrinogen level, the activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) and the prothrombin time (PT) were determined at various intervals during growth and metastasis of a murine fibrosarcoma (mFS6) or one of its sublines with different metastatic capacity. Progressive thrombocytopenia and increase in fibrinogen level were observed during development of the tumour in all the animal groups studied, irrespective of the metastatic potential of the various sublines. No significant changes were observed in the PT or APTT values. These data support the concept that primary rather than metastatic growth influences the haemostatic system of tumour-bearing animals

Protohistoric briquetage at Puntone (Tuscany, Italy):principles and processes of an industry based on the leaching of saline lagoonal sediments

A protohistoric (c.10th-5th c. BC) briquetage site at Puntone (Tuscany, Italy) was studied to unravel the salt production processes and materials involved. Geophysical surveys were used to identify kilns, pits, and dumps. One of these pits and a dump were excavated, followed by detailed chemical and physical analyses of the materials encountered. The pit had been used for holding brine, obtained by leaching of lagoonal sediment over a sieve, that afterwards was discarded to form large dumps. Phases distinguished indicate that the pit filled with fine sediment and was regularly "cleaned." The presence of ferroan-magnesian calcite in the pit fill testifies to the prolonged presence of anoxic brine. The production processes could be reconstructed in detail by confronting the analytical results with known changes in composition of a brine upon evaporation. These pertain in particular to the accumulation of "bitterns" and increased B (boron) concentrations in a residual brine. Both could be traced in the materials studied, and were found to be far more indicative than the ubiquitously studied concentrations of Cl and Na.</p

Bulk Heterojunction Morphologies with Atomistic Resolution from Coarse-Grain Solvent Evaporation Simulations

Control over the morphology of the active layer of bulk heterojunction (BHJ) organic solar cells is paramount to achieve high efficiency devices. However, no method currently available can predict morphologies for a novel donor:acceptor blend. An approach which allows to reach relevant length scales, retain chemical specificity, mimic experimental fabrication conditions, and which is suited for high-throughput schemes has been proven challenging to find. Here, we propose a method to generate atom-resolved morphologies of BHJs which conforms to these requirements. Coarse-grain (CG) molecular dynamics simulations are employed to simulate the large-scale morphological organization during solution-processing. The use of CG models which retain chemical specificity translates into a direct path to the rational design of donor and acceptor compounds which differ only slightly in chemical nature. Finally, the direct retrieval of fully atomistic detail is possible through backmapping, opening the way for improved quantum mechanical calculations addressing the charge separation mechanism. The method is illustrated for the poly(3-hexyl-thiophene) (P3HT):phenyl-C61-butyric acid methyl ester (PCBM) mixture, and found to predict morphologies in agreement with experimental data. The effect of drying rate, P3HT molecular weight and thermal annealing are investigated extensively, resulting in trends mimicking experimental findings. The proposed methodology can help reduce the parameter space which has to be explored before obtaining optimal morphologies not only for BHJ solar cells but for any other solution-processed soft matter device.</p

Resolving Donor-Acceptor Interfaces and Charge Carrier Energy Levels of Organic Semiconductors with Polar Side Chains

Organic semiconductors consisting of molecules bearing polar side chains have been proposed as potential candidates to overcome the limitations of organic photovoltaics owing to their enhanced dielectric constant. However, introducing such polar molecules in photovoltaic devices has not yet resulted in higher efficiencies. A microscopic understanding of the impact of polar side chains on electronic and structural properties of organic semiconductors is paramount to rationalize their effect. Here, the impact of such side chains on bulk heterojunction overall morphology, molecular configurations at donor-acceptor (DA) interfaces, and charge carrier energy levels is investigated. The multiscale modeling approach used allows to resolve DA interfaces with atomistic resolution while taking into account the large-scale self-organization process which takes place during the processing of an organic thin film. The polar fullerene-based blends are compared to the well-studied reference system, poly(3-hexyl-thiophene) (P3HT):phenyl-C-61-butyric acid methyl ester (PCBM). Introduction of polar side chains on a similar molecular scaffold does not affect molecular orientations at the DA interfaces; such orientations are, however, found to be affected by processing conditions and polymer molecular weight. Polar side chains, instead, are found to impact considerably the charge carrier energy levels of the organic blend, causing electrostatic-induced broadening of these levels

A NEW BRANCH of the ANIO NOVUS AQUEDUCT (ROME, ITALY) REVEALED by ARCHAEOLOGY and GEOPHYSICS

The area south-east of Rome is characterised by the presence of several roman aqueducts which brought water to the eternal city from the Apennine and Alban Hills springs. In the last 40 years, several pieces of evidence about these aqueducts were acquired during the realisation of archaeological test trenches before building activities. In 2019, a small branch of a subterranean aqueduct unknown to the Latin sources was unearthed in Via dei Sette Metri. Here we show that this aqueduct is a lateral branch of the Anio Novus, a major imperial aqueduct built between 38 and 52 CE. To achieve this result, we employed detailed photogrammetric restitution of the new aqueduct and an integrated geophysical survey focused in the area where the Anio Novus was supposed to pass. Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) methods were used to reconstruct aqueduct paths and their relative heights. Different light conditions were tested during the picture acquisition step to determine the best practice in the photogrammetric restitution. The results obtained in this study confirmed the great effectiveness of the integration between geophysical investigation methods and the modern archaeology approach in detecting buried ancient structures

Protohistoric briquetage at Puntone (Tuscany, Italy) : principles and processes of an industry based on the leaching of saline lagoonal sediments

A protohistoric (c.10th–5th c. BC) briquetage site at Puntone (Tuscany, Italy) was studied to unravel the salt production processes and materials involved. Geophysical surveys were used to identify kilns, pits, and dumps. One of these pits and a dump were excavated, followed by detailed chemical and physical analyses of the materials encountered. The pit had been used for holding brine, obtained by leaching of lagoonal sediment over a sieve, that afterwards was discarded to form large dumps. Phases distinguished indicate that the pit filled with fine sediment and was regularly “cleaned.” The presence of ferroan‐magnesian calcite in the pit fill testifies to the prolonged presence of anoxic brine. The production processes could be reconstructed in detail by confronting the analytical results with known changes in composition of a brine upon evaporation. These pertain in particular to the accumulation of “bitterns” and increased B (boron) concentrations in a residual brine. Both could be traced in the materials studied, and were found to be far more indicative than the ubiquitously studied concentrations of Cl and Na

Awake fiberoptic intubation in patients with stenosis of the upper airways. Utility of the laryngeal nerve block

Awake fiberoptic intubation (AFOI) is mandatory to manage difficult airways. Superior laryngeal nerve block (SLNB) could reduce risks and improve patient comfort. The aim of this study is to assess the procedural comfort of SLNB during AFOI in a population of patients undergoing upper airway oncological surgery. Forty patients were randomized into two groups and were treated with continuous infusion of remifentanil, topic anesthesia and intercricoid block. In the study group (=20), SLNB was performed with lidocaine (L-SLNB); in the control group (n=20) SLNB was performed using saline (S-SLNB). AFOI was more comfortable in the L-SLNB group compared to S-SLNB patients [FOICS ≤ 1 in 18 patients (90%) L-SLNB; 2 (10%) S-SLNB (P&lt;0.001)]. Intubation was faster in L-SLNB (47.45 ±15.38 sec) than S-SLNB (80.15 ±37.91 sec) (p&lt;0.001). The SLNB procedure during AFOI is a safe and comfortable procedure in a population of patients undergoing upper airways surgery. Time to intubation was shorter in L-SLNB than in S-SLNB