The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard’s surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard’s SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard’s glaciers due to future Arctic warming

An inter-comparison of Arctic synoptic scale storms between four global reanalysis datasets

The Arctic is becoming more accessible as sea ice extent continues to decline, resulting in higher human exposure to Arctic storms. This study compares Arctic storm characteristics between the ECMWF-Interim Reanalysis, 55-year Japanese Reanalysis, NASA-Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 and National Centre for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis datasets between 1980 and 2017, in winter (DJF) and summer (JJA). It is shown that Arctic storm characteristics are sensitive to the variable used for storm tracking. Arctic storm frequency is found to be similar in summer and winter when using sea level pressure minima to track Arctic storms, whereas, the storm frequency is found to be higher in winter than summer when using 850 hPa relative vorticity to track storms, based on using the same storm tracking algorithm. It is also found that there are no significant trends in Arctic storm characteristics between 1980 and 2017. Given the sparsity of observations in the Arctic, it might be expected that there are large differences in Arctic storm characteristics between the reanalysis datasets. Though, some similar Arctic storm characteristics are found between the reanalysis datasets, it is found that the differences in Arctic storm characteristics between the reanalysis datasets are generally higher in winter than in summer. Overall, the results show that there are differences in Arctic storm characteristics between reanalysis datasets, but even larger differences can arise between using 850 hPa relative vorticity or mean sea level pressure as the storm tracking variable, which adds to the uncertainty associated with current Arctic storm characteristics

Growing land-sea temperature contrast and the intensification of Arctic cyclones

Cyclones play an important role in the coupled dynamics of the Arctic climate system on a range of timescales. Modelling studies suggest that storminess will increase in the Arctic summer due to the enhanced land-sea thermal contrast along the Arctic coastline, in a region known as the Arctic Frontal Zone (AFZ). However, the climate models used in these studies are poor at reproducing the present-day Arctic summer cyclone climatology and so their projections of Arctic cyclones and related quantities, such as sea ice, may not be reliable. In this study we perform composite analysis of Arctic cyclone statistics using AFZ variability as an analogue for climate change. High AFZ years are characterised both by increased cyclone frequency and dynamical intensity, compared to low years. Importantly, the size of the response in this analogue suggests that GCMs may underestimate the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change, given a similar change in baroclinicity

Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1

The dramatic warming of the Arctic over the last three decades has reduced both the thickness and extent of sea ice, opening opportunities for business in diverse sectors and increasing human exposure to meteorological hazards in the Arctic. It has been suggested that these changes in environmental conditions have led to an increase in extreme cyclones in the region, therefore increasing this hazard. In this study, we investigate the response of Arctic synoptic scale cyclones to climate change in a large initial value ensemble of future climate projections with the CESM1-CAM5 climate model (CESM-LE). We find that the response of Arctic cyclones in these simulations varies with season, with significant reductions in cyclone dynamic intensity across the Arctic basin in winter, but with contrasting increases in summer intensity within the region known as the Arctic Ocean cyclone maximum. There is also a significant reduction in winter cyclogenesis events within the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian sea region. We conclude that these differences in the response of cyclone intensity and cyclogenesis, with season, appear to be closely linked to changes in surface temperature gradients in the high latitudes, with Arctic poleward temperature gradients increasing in summer, but decreasing in winter

MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY FACTORS IN PRE-FLEDGED FLORIDA SANDHILL CRANE (GRUS CANADENSIS PRATENSIS) CHICKS

One hundred and fifteen Florida sandhill crane (Grus canadensis pratensis) chicks were captured in Osceola and Lake Counties, Florida in 1998 - 2000 and examined for evidence of disease. Evidence of Eimeria gruis and/or E. reichenowi infection was found in 52% of chicks examined. Ten chicks were positive for antibodies to St. Louis encephalitis virus and 1 of these chicks was also positive for antibodies to eastern equine encephalitis virus. Predation was the most commonly identified cause of mortality. An unidentified microfilaria, and an unknown protozoan were detected in blood smears from crane chicks. A number of other disease conditions were also encountered, including: ant bites, chigger infestations, helminth infections, bacterial infections, leg problems associated with capture, and a bill deformity

A gene associated with social immunity in the burying beetle Nicrophorus vespilloides.

Some group-living species exhibit social immunity, where the immune response of one individual can protect others in the group from infection. In burying beetles, this is part of parental care. Larvae feed on vertebrate carcasses which their parents smear with exudates that inhibit microbial growth. We have sequenced the transcriptome of the burying beetle Nicrophorus vespilloides and identified six genes that encode lysozymes-a type of antimicrobial enzyme that has previously been implicated in social immunity in burying beetles. When females start breeding and producing antimicrobial anal exudates, we found that the expression of one of these genes was increased by approximately 1000 times to become one of the most abundant transcripts in the transcriptome. Females varied considerably in the antimicrobial properties of their anal exudates, and this was strongly correlated with the expression of this lysozyme. We conclude that we have likely identified a gene encoding a key effector molecule in social immunity and that it was recruited during evolution from a function in personal immunity.This work was funded by ERC grant DrosophilaInfection 281668 to F.M.J., NERC grant no. NE/H019731/1 to R.M.K., ERC grant BALDWINIAN_BEETLES 310785 to R.M.K. and a Wolfson Merit Award to R.M.K.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Royal Society Publishing via https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2015.273

Pharmaceutical Polymorph Control in a Drug-Mimetic Supramolecular Gel

We report the synthesis of a bis(urea) gelator designed to specifically mimic the chemical structure of the highly polymorphic drug substance ROY. Crystallization of ROY from toluene gels of this gelator results in the formation of the metastable red form instead of the thermodynamic yellow polymorph. In contrast, all other gels and solution control experimetns give the yellow form. Conformational and crystal structure prediction methods have been used to propose the structure of the gel and shows that the templation of the red form by the targetted gel results from conformational matching of the gelator to the ROY substrate coupled with overgorwth of ROY onto the the local periodic structure of the gel fibres

The evolution, diversity, and host associations of rhabdoviruses.

Metagenomic studies are leading to the discovery of a hidden diversity of RNA viruses. These new viruses are poorly characterized and new approaches are needed predict the host species these viruses pose a risk to. The rhabdoviruses are a diverse family of RNA viruses that includes important pathogens of humans, animals, and plants. We have discovered thirty-two new rhabdoviruses through a combination of our own RNA sequencing of insects and searching public sequence databases. Combining these with previously known sequences we reconstructed the phylogeny of 195 rhabdovirus sequences, and produced the most in depth analysis of the family to date. In most cases we know nothing about the biology of the viruses beyond the host they were identified from, but our dataset provides a powerful phylogenetic approach to predict which are vector-borne viruses and which are specific to vertebrates or arthropods. By reconstructing ancestral and present host states we found that switches between major groups of hosts have occurred rarely during rhabdovirus evolution. This allowed us to propose seventy-six new likely vector-borne vertebrate viruses among viruses identified from vertebrates or biting insects. Based on currently available data, our analysis suggests it is likely there was a single origin of the known plant viruses and arthropod-borne vertebrate viruses, while vertebrate- and arthropod-specific viruses arose at least twice. There are also few transitions between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Viruses also cluster together at a finer scale, with closely related viruses tending to be found in closely related hosts. Our data therefore suggest that throughout their evolution, rhabdoviruses have occasionally jumped between distantly related host species before spreading through related hosts in the same environment. This approach offers a way to predict the most probable biology and key traits of newly discovered viruses.BL and FMJ are supported by a NERC grant (NE/L004232/1), a European Research Council grant (281668, DrosophilaInfection), a Junior Research Fellowship from Christ’s College, Cambridge (BL). GGRM is supported by an MRC studentship. The metagenomic sequencing of viruses from D. immigrans, D. tristis and S. deflexa was supported by a Wellcome Trust fellowship (WT085064) to DJO.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Oxford University Press via http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ve/vev01

Sleep deprivation causes memory deficits by negatively impacting neuronal connectivity in hippocampal area CA1

Brief periods of sleep loss have long-lasting consequences such as impaired memory consolidation. Structural changes in synaptic connectivity have been proposed as a substrate of memory storage. Here, we examine the impact of brief periods of sleep deprivation on dendritic structure. In mice, we find that five hours of sleep deprivation decreases dendritic spine numbers selectively in hippocampal area CA1 and increased activity of the filamentous actin severing protein cofilin. Recovery sleep normalizes these structural alterations. Suppression of cofilin function prevents spine loss, deficits in hippocampal synaptic plasticity, and impairments in long-term memory caused by sleep deprivation. The elevated cofilin activity is caused by cAMP-degrading phosphodiesterase-4A5 (PDE4A5), which hampers cAMP-PKA-LIMK signaling. Attenuating PDE4A5 function prevents changes in cAMP-PKA-LIMK-cofilin signaling and cognitive deficits associated with sleep deprivation. Our work demonstrates the necessity of an intact cAMP-PDE4-PKA-LIMK-cofilin activation-signaling pathway for sleep deprivation-induced memory disruption and reduction in hippocampal spine density

Reproductive Phase Locking of Mosquito Populations in Response to Rainfall Frequency

The frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events is projected to change in response to global warming. Here we show that these hydrologic changes may have a profound effect on mosquito population dynamics and rates of mosquito-borne disease transmission. We develop a simple model, which treats the mosquito reproductive cycle as a phase oscillator that responds to rainfall frequency forcing. This model reproduces observed mosquito population dynamics and indicates that mosquito-borne disease transmission can be sensitive to rainfall frequency. These findings indicate that changes to the hydrologic cycle, in particular the frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events, could have a profound effect on the transmission rates of some mosquito-borne diseases