An Evidence Quality Assessment Model for Cyber Security Policymaking

A key factor underpinning a state’s capacity to respond to cyber security policy challenges is the quality of evidence that supports decision making. As part of this process, policy advisers, essentially a diverse group that includes everyone from civil servants to elected policy makers, are required to assess evidence from a mix of sources. In time-critical scenarios where relevant expertise is limited or not available, assessing threats, risk and proportionate response based on official briefings, academic sources and industry threat reports can be very challenging. This chapter presents a model for assessing the quality of evidence used in policymaking. The utility of the model is illustrated using a sample of evidence sources and it is demonstrated how different attributes may be used for comparing evidence quality. The ultimate goal is to help resolve potential conflicts and weigh findings and opinions in a systematic manner

Multimorbidity and comorbidity of chronic diseases among the senior Australians: prevalence and patterns

Understanding patterns and identifying common clusters of chronic diseases may help policymakers, researchers, and clinicians to understand the needs of the care process better and potentially save both provider and patient time and cost. However, only limited research has been conducted in this area, and ambiguity remains as those limited previous studies used different approaches to identify common clusters and findings may vary with approaches. This study estimates the prevalence of common chronic diseases and examines co-occurrence of diseases using four approaches: (i) identification of the most occurring pairs and triplets of comorbid diseases; performing (ii) cluster analysis of diseases, (iii) principal component analysis, and (iv) latent class analysis. Data were collected using a questionnaire mailed to a cross-sectional sample of senior Australians, with 4574 responses. Eighty-two percent of respondents reported having at least one chronic disease and over 52% reported having at least two chronic diseases. Respondents suffering from any chronic diseases had an average of 2.4 comorbid diseases. Three defined groups of chronic diseases were identified: (i) asthma, bronchitis, arthritis, osteoporosis and depression; (ii) high blood pressure and diabetes; and (iii) cancer, with heart disease and stroke either making a separate group or "attaching" themselves to different groups in different analyses. The groups were largely consistent across the approaches. Stability and sensitivity analyses also supported the consistency of the groups. The consistency of the findings suggests there is co-occurrence of diseases beyond chance, and patterns of co-occurrence are important for clinicians, patients, policymakers and researchers. Further studies are needed to provide a strong evidence base to identify comorbid groups which would benefit from appropriate guidelines for the care and management of patients with particular disease clusters.This work was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council ID (402793, 2006). The Australian Primary Health Care Research Institute is funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing as part of its Primary Health Care Research Evaluation and Development (PHCRED) Strategy

<i>Histoplasma</i> Seropositivity in TB Patients in The Gambia: Evidence to Drive Research on a High-Priority Fungal Pathogen

Abstract Background Inclusion of Histoplasma in the World Health Organization's first Fungal Priority Pathogens List under “high-priority” fungal species highlights the need for robust surveillance of Histoplasma spp. in endemic and underrepresented regions. Despite increasing reports of histoplasmosis in Africa, data on the burden of this fungal disease are sparse in The Gambia. This baseline study examined the human seroprevalence of anti-Histoplasma antibody in a TB patient group in The Gambia, explored associations between seropositivity and demographic and clinical variables, and proposes future research directions. Methods Biobanked plasma samples were selected from active TB cases with variable HIV infection status. Latex agglutination tests were performed on samples from 52 study participants to detect the presence of anti-Histoplasma antibodies. Potential risk factors for Histoplasma exposure were explored using logistic regression analysis. Results The sample seroprevalence of anti-Histoplasma antibody was 28.8% (n = 15/52; 95% CI, 17.1%–43.1%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified a statistically significant association between Histoplasma seropositivity and age (odds ratio, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.84–0.98; P = .008). Conclusions This baseline study provides evidence of Histoplasma seropositivity in TB patients in The Gambia and explores risk factors for exposure. The small sample size and use of the LAT in TB and HIV-positive patient groups are significant study limitations. Future research directions are proposed to ascertain the burden of Histoplasma in general and patient populations and explore the context-specific risk factors for exposure and infection in The Gambia. </jats:sec

Using the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) to understand adherence to multiple evidence-based indicators in primary care : a qualitative study

BACKGROUND: There are recognised gaps between evidence and practice in general practice, a setting posing particular implementation challenges. We earlier screened clinical guideline recommendations to derive a set of 'high-impact' indicators based upon criteria including potential for significant patient benefit, scope for improved practice and amenability to measurement using routinely collected data. Here, we explore health professionals' perceived determinants of adherence to these indicators, examining the degree to which determinants were indicator-specific or potentially generalisable across indicators. METHODS: We interviewed 60 general practitioners, practice nurses and practice managers in West Yorkshire, the UK, about adherence to four indicators: avoidance of risky prescribing; treatment targets in type 2 diabetes; blood pressure targets in treated hypertension; and anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation. Interview questions drew upon the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF). Data were analysed using framework analysis. RESULTS: Professional role and identity and environmental context and resources featured prominently across all indicators whilst the importance of other domains, for example, beliefs about consequences, social influences and knowledge varied across indicators. We identified five meta-themes representing more general organisational and contextual factors common to all indicators. CONCLUSIONS: The TDF helped elicit a wide range of reported determinants of adherence to 'high-impact' indicators in primary care. It was more difficult to pinpoint which determinants, if targeted by an implementation strategy, would maximise change. The meta-themes broadly underline the need to align the design of interventions targeting general practices with higher level supports and broader contextual considerations. However, our findings suggest that it is feasible to develop interventions to promote the uptake of different evidence-based indicators which share common features whilst also including content-specific adaptations

Impact of the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on pneumonia in The Gambia: population-based surveillance and case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are used in many low-income countries but their impact on the incidence of pneumonia is unclear. The Gambia introduced PCV7 in August, 2009, and PCV13 in May, 2011. We aimed to measure the impact of the introduction of these vaccines on pneumonia incidence. METHODS: We did population-based surveillance and case-control studies. The primary endpoint was WHO-defined radiological pneumonia with pulmonary consolidation. Population-based surveillance was for suspected pneumonia in children aged 2-59 months (minimum age 3 months in the case-control study) between May 12, 2008, and Dec 31, 2015. Surveillance for the impact study was limited to the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System (BHDSS), whereas surveillance for the case-control study included both the BHDSS and Fuladu West Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Nurses screened all outpatients and inpatients at all health facilities in the surveillance area using standardised criteria for referral to clinicians in Basse and Bansang. These clinicians recorded clinical findings and applied standardised criteria to identify patients with suspected pneumonia. We compared the incidence of pneumonia during the baseline period (May 12, 2008, to May 11, 2010) and the PCV13 period (Jan 1, 2014, to Dec 31, 2015). We also investigated the effectiveness of PCV13 using case-control methods between Sept 12, 2011, and Sept 31, 2014. Controls were aged 90 days or older, and were eligible to have received at least one dose of PCV13; cases had the same eligibility criteria with the addition of having WHO-defined radiological pneumonia. FINDINGS: We investigated 18 833 children with clinical pneumonia and identified 2156 cases of radiological pneumonia. Among children aged 2-11 months, the incidence of radiological pneumonia fell from 21·0 cases per 1000 person-years in the baseline period to 16·2 cases per 1000 person-years (23% decline, 95% CI 7-36) in 2014-15. In the 12-23 month age group, radiological pneumonia decreased from 15·3 to 10·9 cases per 1000 person-years (29% decline, 12-42). In children aged 2-4 years, incidence fell from 5·2 to 4·1 cases per 1000 person-years (22% decline, 1-39). Incidence of all clinical pneumonia increased by 4% (-1 to 8), but hospitalised cases declined by 8% (3-13). Pneumococcal pneumonia declined from 2·9 to 1·2 cases per 1000 person-years (58% decline, 22-77) in children aged 2-11 months and from 2·6 to 0·7 cases per 1000 person-years (75% decline, 47-88) in children aged 12-23 months. Hypoxic pneumonia fell from 13·1 to 5·7 cases per 1000 person-years (57% decline, 42-67) in children aged 2-11 months and from 6·8 to 1·9 cases per 1000 person-years (72% decline, 58-82) in children aged 12-23 months. In the case-control study, the best estimate of the effectiveness of three doses of PCV13 against radiological pneumonia was an adjusted odds ratio of 0·57 (0·30-1·08) in children aged 3-11 months and vaccine effectiveness increased with greater numbers of doses (p=0·026). The analysis in children aged 12 months and older was underpowered because there were few unvaccinated cases and controls. INTERPRETATION: The introduction of PCV in The Gambia was associated with a moderate impact on the incidence of radiological pneumonia, a small reduction in cases of hospitalised pneumonia, and substantial reductions of pneumococcal and hypoxic pneumonia in young children. Low-income countries that introduce PCV13 with reasonable coverage can expect modest reductions in hospitalised cases of pneumonia and a marked impact on the incidence of severe childhood pneumonia. FUNDING: GAVI's Pneumococcal vaccines Accelerated Development and Introduction Plan, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and UK Medical Research Council

GM-CSF drives dysregulated hematopoietic stem cell activity and pathogenic extramedullary myelopoiesis in experimental spondyloarthritis

Dysregulated hematopoiesis occurs in several chronic inflammatory diseases, but it remains unclear how hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) in the bone marrow (BM) sense peripheral inflammation and contribute to tissue damage in arthritis. Here, we show the HSC gene expression program is biased toward myelopoiesis and differentiation skewed toward granulocyte-monocyte progenitors (GMP) during joint and intestinal inflammation in experimental spondyloarthritis (SpA). GM-CSF-receptor is increased on HSCs and multipotent progenitors, favoring a striking increase in myelopoiesis at the earliest hematopoietic stages. GMP accumulate in the BM in SpA and, unexpectedly, at extramedullary sites: in the inflamed joints and spleen. Furthermore, we show that GM-CSF promotes extramedullary myelopoiesis, tissue-toxic neutrophil accumulation in target organs, and GM-CSF prophylactic or therapeutic blockade substantially decreases SpA severity. Surprisingly, besides CD4+ T cells and innate lymphoid cells, mast cells are a source of GM-CSF in this model, and its pathogenic production is promoted by the alarmin IL-33

Variations in achievement of evidence-based, high-impact quality indicators in general practice : An observational study

BACKGROUND: There are widely recognised variations in the delivery and outcomes of healthcare but an incomplete understanding of their causes. There is a growing interest in using routinely collected 'big data' in the evaluation of healthcare. We developed a set of evidence-based 'high impact' quality indicators (QIs) for primary care and examined variations in achievement of these indicators using routinely collected data in the United Kingdom (UK). METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of routinely collected, electronic primary care data from a sample of general practices in West Yorkshire, UK (n = 89). The QIs covered aspects of care (including processes and intermediate clinical outcomes) in relation to diabetes, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction, chronic kidney disease (CKD) and 'risky' prescribing combinations. Regression models explored the impact of practice and patient characteristics. Clustering within practice was accounted for by including a random intercept for practice. RESULTS: Median practice achievement of the QIs ranged from 43.2% (diabetes control) to 72.2% (blood pressure control in CKD). Considerable between-practice variation existed for all indicators: the difference between the highest and lowest performing practices was 26.3 percentage points for risky prescribing and 100 percentage points for anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation. Odds ratios associated with the random effects for practices emphasised this; there was a greater than ten-fold difference in the likelihood of achieving the hypertension indicator between the lowest and highest performing practices. Patient characteristics, in particular age, gender and comorbidity, were consistently but modestly associated with indicator achievement. Statistically significant practice characteristics were identified less frequently in adjusted models. CONCLUSIONS: Despite various policy and improvement initiatives, there are enduring inappropriate variations in the delivery of evidence-based care. Much of this variation is not explained by routinely collected patient or practice variables, and is likely to be attributable to differences in clinical and organisational behaviour

Target for improvement: a cluster randomised trial of public involvement in quality-indicator prioritisation (intervention development and study protocol)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Public priorities for improvement often differ from those of clinicians and managers. Public involvement has been proposed as a way to bridge the gap between professional and public clinical care priorities but has not been studied in the context of quality-indicator choice. Our objective is to assess the feasibility and impact of public involvement on quality-indicator choice and agreement with public priorities.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We will conduct a cluster randomised controlled trial comparing quality-indicator prioritisation with and without public involvement. In preparation for the trial, we developed a 'menu' of quality indicators, based on a systematic review of existing validated indicator sets. Participants (public representatives, clinicians, and managers) will be recruited from six participating sites. In intervention sites, public representatives will be involved through direct participation (public representatives, clinicians, and managers will deliberate together to agree on quality-indicator choice and use) and consultation (individual public recommendations for improvement will be collected and presented to decision makers). In control sites, only clinicians and managers will take part in the prioritisation process. Data on quality-indicator choice and intended use will be collected. Our primary outcome will compare quality-indicator choice and agreement with public priorities between intervention and control groups. A process evaluation based on direct observation, videorecording, and participants' assessment will be conducted to help explain the study's results. The marginal cost of public involvement will also be assessed.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>We identified 801 quality indicators that met our inclusion criteria. An expert panel agreed on a final set of 37 items containing validated quality indicators relevant for chronic disease prevention and management in primary care. We pilot tested our public-involvement intervention with 27 participants (11 public representatives and 16 clinicians and managers) and our study instruments with an additional 21 participants, which demonstrated the feasibility of the intervention and generated important insights and adaptations to engage public representatives more effectively. To our knowledge, this study is the first trial of public involvement in quality-indicator prioritisation, and its results could foster more effective upstream engagement of patients and the public in clinical practice improvement.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p><a href="http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=2496">NTR2496</a> (Netherlands National Trial Register, <url>http://www.trialregister.nl</url>).</p