Understanding West Nile virus transmission: mathematical modelling to quantify the most critical parameters to predict infection dynamics

West Nile disease is a vector-borne disease caused by West Nile virus (WNV), involving mosquitoes as vectors and birds as maintenance hosts. Humans and other mammals can be infected via mosquito bites, developing symptoms ranging from mild fever to severe neurological infection. Due to the worldwide spread of WNV, human infection risk is high in several countries. Nevertheless, there are still several knowledge gaps regarding WNV dynamics. Several aspects of transmission taking place between birds and mosquitoes, such as the length of the infectious period in birds or mosquito biting rates, are still not fully understood, and precise quantitative estimates are still lacking for the European species involved. This lack of knowledge affects the precision of parameter values when modelling the infection, consequently resulting in a potential impairment of the reliability of model simulations and predictions and in a lack of the overall understanding of WNV spread. Further investigations are thus needed to better understand these aspects, but field studies, especially those involving several wild species, such as in the case of WNV, can be challenging. Thus, it becomes crucial to identify which transmission processes most influence the dynamics of WNV. In the present work, we propose a sensitivity analysis to investigate which of the selected epidemiological parameters of WNV have the largest impact on the spread of the infection. Based on a mathematical model simulating WNV spread into the Lombardy region (northern Italy), the basic reproduction number of the infection was estimated and used to quantify infection spread into mosquitoes and birds. Then, we quantified how variations in four epidemiological parameters representing the duration of the infectious period in birds, the mosquito biting rate on birds, and the competence and susceptibility to infection of different bird species might affect WNV transmission. Our study highlights that knowledge gaps in WNV epidemiology affect the precision in several parameters. Although all investigated parameters affected the spread of WNV and the modelling precision, the duration of the infectious period in birds and mosquito biting rate are the most impactful, pointing out the need of focusing future studies on a better estimate of these parameters at first. In addition, our study suggests that a WNV outbreak is very likely to occur in all areas with suitable temperatures, highlighting the wide area where WNV represents a serious risk for public healt

Unsupervised machine learning and geometric morphometrics as tools for the identification of inter and intraspecific variations in the Anopheles Maculipennis complex

Geometric morphometric analysis was combined with two different unsupervised machine learning algorithms, UMAP and HDBSCAN, to visualize morphological differences in wing shape among and within four Anopheles sibling species (An. atroparvus, An. melanoon, An. maculipennis s.s. and An. daciae sp. inq.) of the Maculipennis complex in Northern Italy. Specifically, we evaluated: (1) wing shape variation among and within species; (2) the consistencies between groups of An. maculipennis s.s. and An. daciae sp. inq. identified based on COI sequences and wing shape variability; and (3) the spatial and temporal distribution of different morphotypes. UMAP detected at least 13 main patterns of variation in wing shape among the four analyzed species and mapped intraspecific morphological variations. The relationship between the most abundant COI haplotypes of An. daciae sp. inq. and shape ordination/variation was not significant. However, morphological variation within haplotypes was reported. HDBSCAN also recognized different clusters of morphotypes within An. daciae sp. inq. (12) and An. maculipennis s.s. (4). All morphotypes shared a similar pattern of variation in the subcostal vein, in the anal vein and in the radio-medial cross-vein of the wing. On the contrary, the marginal part of the wings remained unchanged in all clusters of both species. Any spatial-temporal significant difference was observed in the frequency of the identified morphotypes. Our study demonstrated that machine learning algorithms are a useful tool combined with geometric morphometrics and suggest to deepen the analysis of inter and intra specific shape variability to evaluate evolutionary constrains related to wing functionality

Arbovirus Screening in Mosquitoes in Emilia-Romagna (Italy, 2021) and Isolation of Tahyna Virus

Several viruses can be transmitted by mosquitoes. We searched some of these viruses in 20,778 mosquitoes, collected in 95 traps on the plains of Emilia-Romagna (North of Italy) in 2021. We detected West Nile virus (WNV) and Usutu virus (USUV) in pools of Culex (Cx.) pipiens. In addition, we detected two insect-specific flaviviruses in three pools of Aedes (Ae.) caspius and in two of Ae. vexans. Tahyna virus (TAHV) was detected in six pools, three of Ae. caspius and three of Cx. pipiens, and one isolated strain was obtained from one of the Ae. caspius pools. Moreover, we detected TAHV in pools of several mosquito species (Ae. caspius, Ae. vexans, Ae. albopictus, Anopheles maculipennis s.l.) collected in the previous year of surveillance. Our data indicate Ae. caspius as the species most infected with TAHV in the surveyed area. Together with the likely plasticity of the cycle, we reported strong genome stability of the TAHV, probably linked to a successful adaptation of the virus to its ecological niche. Interestingly, in six pools of Cx. pipiens we detected two associated viruses among USUV, WNV, TAHV and all the three viruses in two pools. This result allows us to assume the presence of particular conditions that prompt the circulation of arboviruses, creating the conditions for viral hot spots. While no human diseases related to Tahyna virus were reported in Italy, its detection over the years suggests that it is worth investigating this virus as a potential cause of disease in humans in order to assess its health burden. IMPORTANCE We reported in this work the detection of three Arboviruses (Arthropod-borne viruses) in mosquitoes collected in Emilia-Romagna in 2021. In addition to West Nile and Usutu viruses, which were reported from more than 10 years in the study area, we detected and isolated Tahyna virus (TAHV). We also reported detections of TAHV obtained in previous years of surveillance in different species of mosquitoes. TAHV is the potential causative agent of summer influenza-like diseases and also of meningitis. Even if human cases of disease referable to this virus are not reported in Italy, its relevant presence in mosquitoes suggests investigating the possibility they could

Reconstructing the recent West Nile virus lineage 2 epidemic in Europe and Italy using discrete and continuous phylogeography

West Nile virus lineage 2 (WNV-2) was mainly confined to sub-Saharan Africa until the early 2000s, when it was identified for the first time in Central Europe causing outbreaks of human and animal infection. The aim of this study was to reconstruct the origin and dispersion of WNV-2 in Central Europe and Italy on a phylodynamic and phylogeographical basis. To this aim, discrete and continuous space phylogeographical models were applied to a total of 33 newly characterised full-length viral genomes obtained from mosquitoes, birds and humans in Northern Italy in the years 2013-2015 aligned with 64 complete sequences isolated mainly in Europe. The European isolates segregated into two highly significant clades: a small one including three sequences and a large clade including the majority of isolates obtained in Central Europe since 2004. Discrete phylogeographical analysis showed that the most probable location of the root of the largest European clade was in Hungary a mean 12.78 years ago. The European clade bifurcated into two highly supported subclades: one including most of the Central/East European isolates and the other encompassing all of the isolates obtained in Greece. The continuous space phylogeographical analysis of the Italian clade showed that WNV-2 entered Italy in about 2008, probably by crossing the Adriatic sea and reaching a central area of the Po Valley. The epidemic then spread simultaneously eastward, to reach the region of the Po delta in 2013, and westward to the border area between Lombardy and Piedmont in 2014; later, the western strain changed direction southward, and reached the central area of the Po valley once again in 2015. Over a period of about seven years, the virus spread all over an area of northern Italy by following the Po river and its main tributaries

Resource-effective serosurveillance for the detection of West Nile Virus in Switzerland using abattoir samples of free-range laying hens

West Nile virus (WNV) is an important zoonotic pathogen maintained in a natural transmission cycle between mosquitoes and birds as reservoir hosts. In dead-end hosts, such as humans, infection may result in fatal neurologic disease translating into disease and death-related suffering and increased health care costs. In humans, WNV may also be transmitted through blood transfusions and organ transplants. WNV is not present in Switzerland yet, but competent vector species (especially Culex pipiens and Aedes japonicus) are prevalent and an introduction of the virus, likely through wild birds, is expected at any time. Therefore, it is important for Switzerland to be prepared and establish a surveillance system for WNV to initiate increased prevention activities, such as the screening of blood and organ donations and public education activities in case virus circulation is detected. The long-term goal of these surveillance measures would be a reduced infection rate in humans resulting in less suffering and reduced health care costs. To provide the basis for a pragmatic and resource-effective WNV surveillance program, this study used aliquots of serum samples of free-range laying hens taken at the abattoir and collected in the frame of the ongoing Swiss Avian Influenza and Newcastle Disease monitoring program for a 2-year period. All 961 aliquots were analyzed using a commercial competitive WNV enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The study allowed to set up sampling and laboratory routines as a basis for future WNV surveillance activities. At this stage there is no evidence for circulation of WNV in Switzerland

PCV2 infection in vaccinated conventional gilts inseminated with PCV2b-spiked semen

The present trial investigated the effect of PCV2 vaccination on viremia, virus shedding and viral load in maternal tissues and foetuses of conventional gilts inseminated with PCV2b-spiked semen. Twelve gilts were randomly divided into two groups of six animals each (vaccinated infected, VI; non-vaccinated infected, NVI). Estrus synchronization was followed by artificial insemination (AI) with a single PCV2 negative semen dose supplemented with 0.2 mL of a PCV2b suspension containing 104.4 TCID50/50 \u3bcL (total viral dose: 105 TCID50). Vaginal, nasal and faecal swabs, and blood samples were collected weekly from two days before artificial insemination till the end of the experimental period (55 days post AI; DPAI) and tested by real-time PCR (qPCR) for PCV2; sera were tested for anti- PCV2 antibodies. During necropsy foetal and maternal tissues were collected for qPCR and histopathology. In each of the VI and NVI groups three out of the six gilts were pregnant at 29 DPAI. The VI group showed a significantly lower proportion of PCR-positive swabs: 24.6% VI vs 71.3% NVI. PCV2 clearance was demonstrated by qPCR in lymphoid tissue during the trial in the VI group. Only one foetus was PCV2-positive (in the NVI group) and three amniotic fluids of the NVI group. PCV2 was found in a significantly lower proportion of the placenta of foetuses in the VI group (39%) than the NVI group (77%). The PCV2 vaccine seems to play an active role in reducing virus shedding, tissue viral load and foetoplacental infection

Decrypting the Origin and Pathogenesis in Pregnant Ewes of a New Ovine Pestivirus Closely Related to Classical Swine Fever Virus

This study shows the origin and the pathogenic role of a novel ovine pestivirus (OVPV) isolated in 2017 in Italy, as a pathogenic agent causing severe abortions after infection in pregnant ewes and high capacity for virus trans-placental transmission as well as the birth of lambs suffering OVPV-persistent infection. The OVPV infection induced early antibody response detected by the specific ELISA against classical swine fever virus (CSFV), another important virus affecting swine. The neutralizing antibody response were similar against CSFV strains from genotype 2 and the OVPV. These viruses showed high identity in the B/C domain of the E2-glycoprotein. Close molecular diagnostics cross-reactivity between CSFV and OVPV was found and a new OVPV molecular assay was developed. The phylodynamic analysis showed that CSFV seems to have emerged as the result of an inter-species jump of Tunisian sheep virus (TSV) from sheep to pigs. The OVPV and the CSFV share the TSV as a common ancestor, emerging around 300 years ago. This suggests that the differentiation of TSV into two dangerous new viruses for animal health (CSFV and OVPV) was likely favored by human intervention for the close housing of multiple species for intensive livestock production.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Decrypting the Origin and Pathogenesis in Pregnant Ewes of a New Ovine Pestivirus Closely Related to Classical Swine Fever Virus

This study shows the origin and the pathogenic role of a novel ovine pestivirus (OVPV) isolated in 2017 in Italy, as a pathogenic agent causing severe abortions after infection in pregnant ewes and high capacity for virus trans-placental transmission as well as the birth of lambs suffering OVPV-persistent infection. The OVPV infection induced early antibody response detected by the specific ELISA against classical swine fever virus (CSFV), another important virus affecting swine. The neutralizing antibody response were similar against CSFV strains from genotype 2 and the OVPV. These viruses showed high identity in the B/C domain of the E2-glycoprotein. Close molecular diagnostics cross-reactivity between CSFV and OVPV was found and a new OVPV molecular assay was developed. The phylodynamic analysis showed that CSFV seems to have emerged as the result of an inter-species jump of Tunisian sheep virus (TSV) from sheep to pigs. The OVPV and the CSFV share the TSV as a common ancestor, emerging around 300 years ago. This suggests that the differentiation of TSV into two dangerous new viruses for animal health (CSFV and OVPV) was likely favored by human intervention for the close housing of multiple species for intensive livestock production

West Nile virus transmission. results from the integrated surveillance system in Italy, 2008 to 2015

IIn Italy a national Plan for the surveillance of imported and autochthonous human vector-borne diseases (chikungunya, dengue, Zika virus disease and West Nile virus (WNV) disease) that integrates human and veterinary (animals and vectors) surveillance, is issued and revised annually according with the observed epidemiological changes. Here we describe results of the WNV integrated veterinary and human surveillance systems in Italy from 2008 to 2015. A real time data exchange protocol is in place between the surveillance systems to rapidly identify occurrence of human and animal cases and to define and update the map of affected areas i.e. provinces during the vector activity period from June to October. WNV continues to cause severe illnesses in Italy during every transmission season, albeit cases are sporadic and the epidemiology varies by virus lineage and geographic area. The integration of surveillance activities and a multidisciplinary approach made it possible and have been fundamental in supporting implementation of and/or strengthening preventive measures aimed at reducing the risk of transmission of WNV trough blood, tissues and organ donation and to implementing further measures for vector control