The Early Identification of At-Risk Students in an Undergraduate Marketing Metrics Course

The Early Identification of At-Risk Students in an Undergraduate Marketing Metrics Course Abstract This research describes the development of a diagnostic tool to permit the early identification of at-risk students in an undergraduate marketing metrics course. Using multiple discriminant analysis, students were classified into performance categories by drawing on a set of predictor variables conceptually linked to student performance in math-based courses. The discriminant model included math ability, perceived self-efficacy, math anxiety and overconfidence as potential discriminators of student performance. The model successfully identifies at-risk students at three times the chance probability. The early identification of at-risk students is a critical first step in the process to improve student performance

Transparency about the outcomes of mental health services (IAPT approach): an analysis of public data

Background Internationally, the clinical outcomes of routine mental health services are rarely recorded or reported; however, an exception is the English Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) service, which delivers psychological therapies recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence for depression and anxiety disorders to more than 537 000 patients in the UK each year. A session-by-session outcome monitoring system ensures that IAPT obtains symptom scores before and after treatment for 98% of patients. Service outcomes can then be reported, along with contextual information, on public websites. Methods We used publicly available data to identify predictors of variability in clinical performance. Using β regression models, we analysed the outcome data released by National Health Service Digital and Public Health England for the 2014–15 financial year (April 1, 2014, to March 31, 2015) and developed a predictive model of reliable improvement and reliable recovery. We then tested whether these predictors were also associated with changes in service outcome between 2014–15 and 2015–16. Findings Five service organisation features predicted clinical outcomes in 2014–15. Percentage of cases with a problem descriptor, number of treatment sessions, and percentage of referrals treated were positively associated with outcome. The time waited to start treatment and percentage of appointments missed were negatively associated with outcome. Additive odd ratios suggest that moving from the lowest to highest level on an organisational factor could improve service outcomes by 11–42%, dependent on the factor. Consistent with a causal model, most organisational factors also predicted between-year changes in outcome, together accounting for 33% of variance in reliable improvement and 22% for reliable recovery. Social deprivation was negatively associated with some outcomes, but the effect was partly mitigated by the organisational factors. Interpretation Traditionally, efforts to improve mental health outcomes have largely focused on the development of new and more effective treatments. Our analyses show that the way psychological therapy services are implemented could be similarly important. Mental health services elsewhere in the UK and in other countries might benefit from adopting IAPT's approach to recording and publicly reporting clinical outcomes

APOE e4 genotype predicts severe COVID-19 in the UK Biobank community cohort

This article is freely available via Open Access. Click on the Publisher URL to access it via the publisher's site.C.L.K., L.C.P., G.A.K., and D.M. are supported in part by an R21 grant (R21AG060018) funded by National Institute on Aging, National Instute of Health, USA, UK Medical Research Council award MR/S009892/1 (PI Melzer) supports J.L.A. J.A.H.M. is supported by National Institute for Health Research, UK Doctoral Research Fellowship DRF-2014-07-177.published version, accepted version (12 month embargo), submitted versio

The Cost Effectiveness of Psychological and Pharmacological Interventions for Social Anxiety Disorder:A Model-Based Economic Analysis

Background Social anxiety disorder is one of the most persistent and common anxiety disorders. Individually delivered psychological therapies are the most effective treatment options for adults with social anxiety disorder, but they are associated with high intervention costs. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess the relative cost effectiveness of a variety of psychological and pharmacological interventions for adults with social anxiety disorder. Methods A decision-analytic model was constructed to compare costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) of 28 interventions for social anxiety disorder from the perspective of the British National Health Service and personal social services. Efficacy data were derived from a systematic review and network meta-analysis. Other model input parameters were based on published literature and national sources, supplemented by expert opinion. Results Individual cognitive therapy was the most cost-effective intervention for adults with social anxiety disorder, followed by generic individual cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), phenelzine and book-based self-help without support. Other drugs, group-based psychological interventions and other individually delivered psychological interventions were less cost-effective. Results were influenced by limited evidence suggesting superiority of psychological interventions over drugs in retaining long-term effects. The analysis did not take into account side effects of drugs. Conclusion Various forms of individually delivered CBT appear to be the most cost-effective options for the treatment of adults with social anxiety disorder. Consideration of side effects of drugs would only strengthen this conclusion, as it would improve even further the cost effectiveness of individually delivered CBT relative to phenelzine, which was the next most cost-effective option, due to the serious side effects associated with phenelzine. Further research needs to determine more accurately the long-term comparative benefits and harms of psychological and pharmacological interventions for social anxiety disorder and establish their relative cost effectiveness with greater certainty

Psychological and pharmacological interventions for social anxiety disorder in adults: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

SummaryBackgroundSocial anxiety disorder—a chronic and naturally unremitting disease that causes substantial impairment—can be treated with pharmacological, psychological, and self-help interventions. We aimed to compare these interventions and to identify which are most effective for the acute treatment of social anxiety disorder in adults.MethodsWe did a systematic review and network meta-analysis of interventions for adults with social anxiety disorder, identified from published and unpublished sources between 1988 and Sept 13, 2013. We analysed interventions by class and individually. Outcomes were validated measures of social anxiety, reported as standardised mean differences (SMDs) compared with a waitlist reference. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42012003146.FindingsWe included 101 trials (13 164 participants) of 41 interventions or control conditions (17 classes) in the analyses. Classes of pharmacological interventions that had greater effects on outcomes compared with waitlist were monoamine oxidase inhibitors (SMD −1·01, 95% credible interval [CrI] −1·56 to −0·45), benzodiazepines (−0·96, −1·56 to −0·36), selective serotonin-reuptake inhibitors and serotonin–norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs and SNRIs; −0·91, −1·23 to −0·60), and anticonvulsants (−0·81, −1·36 to −0·28). Compared with waitlist, efficacious classes of psychological interventions were individual cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT; SMD −1·19, 95% CrI −1·56 to −0·81), group CBT (−0·92, −1·33 to −0·51), exposure and social skills (−0·86, −1·42 to −0·29), self-help with support (−0·86, −1·36 to −0·36), self-help without support (−0·75, −1·25 to −0·26), and psychodynamic psychotherapy (−0·62, −0·93 to −0·31). Individual CBT compared with psychological placebo (SMD −0·56, 95% CrI −1·00 to −0·11), and SSRIs and SNRIs compared with pill placebo (−0·44, −0·67 to −0·22) were the only classes of interventions that had greater effects on outcomes than appropriate placebo. Individual CBT also had a greater effect than psychodynamic psychotherapy (SMD −0·56, 95% CrI −1·03 to −0·11) and interpersonal psychotherapy, mindfulness, and supportive therapy (−0·82, −1·41 to −0·24).InterpretationIndividual CBT (which other studies have shown to have a lower risk of side-effects than pharmacotherapy) is associated with large effect sizes. Thus, it should be regarded as the best intervention for the initial treatment of social anxiety disorder. For individuals who decline psychological intervention, SSRIs show the most consistent evidence of benefit.FundingNational Institute for Health and Care Excellence

ApoE e2 and aging-related outcomes in 379,000 UK Biobank participants

The Apolipoprotein E (APOE) e4 allele is associated with reduced longevity and increased Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) and Alzheimer's disease, with e4e4 having markedly larger effect sizes than e3e4. The e2 longevity promoting variant is less studied. We conducted a phenome-wide association study of ApoE e2e3 and e2e2 with aging phenotypes, to assess their potential as targets for anti-aging interventions. Data were from 379,000 UK Biobank participants, aged 40 to 70 years. e2e3 (n=46,535) had mostly lower lipid-related biomarker levels including reduced total and LDL-cholesterol, and lower risks of CAD (Odds Ratio=0.87, 95% CI: 0.83 to 0.90, p=4.92×10-14) and hypertension (OR=0.94, 95% CI: 0.92 to 0.97, p=7.28×10-7) versus e3e3. However, lipid changes in e2e2 (n=2,398) were more extreme, including a marked increase in triglyceride levels (0.41 Standard Deviations, 95% CI: 0.37 to 0.45, p=5.42×10-92), with no associated changes in CAD risks. There were no associations with biomarkers of kidney function. The effects of both e2e2 and e2e3 were minimal on falls, muscle mass, grip strength or frailty. In conclusion, e2e3 has protective effects on some health outcomes, but the effects of e2e2 are not similar, complicating the potential usefulness of e2 as a target for anti-aging intervention.This article is freely available via Open Access. Click on the Publisher URL to access it via the publisher's site.This research was funded by the National Institute on Aging (R21AG060018) and conducted using the UK Biobank resource, under application 14631. UK Biobank received an approval from the UK Biobank Research Ethics Committee (REC) (REC reference 11/NW/0382).published versio

Cost-effectiveness of psychological interventions for children and young people with post-traumatic stress disorder

Background: PTSD in youth may lead to long-lasting psychological implications, educational difficulties and increased healthcare costs. Psychological interventions have been shown to be effective in its management. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of a range of psychological interventions for children and young people with PTSD. Methods: A decision-analytic model was constructed to compare costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of 10 psychological interventions and no treatment for children and young people with PTSD, from the perspective of the National Health Service and personal social services in England. Effectiveness data were derived from a systematic review and network meta-analysis. Other model input parameters were based on published sources, supplemented by expert opinion. Results: Cognitive therapy for PTSD, a form of individual trauma-focused cognitive behavioural therapy (TF-CBT), appeared to be the most cost-effective intervention for children and young people with PTSD (with a probability of.78 amongst the 11 evaluated options at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000/QALY), followed by narrative exposure (another form of individual TF-CBT), play therapy, and other forms of individual TF-CBT. After excluding cognitive therapy from the analysis, narrative exposure appeared to be the most cost-effective option with a.40 probability of being cost-effective amongst the remaining 10 options. EMDR, parent training and group TF-CBT occupied middle cost-effectiveness rankings. Family therapy and supportive counselling were less cost-effective than other active interventions. There was limited evidence for some interventions, in particular cognitive therapy for PTSD and parent training. Conclusions: Individual forms of TF-CBT and, to a lesser degree, play therapy appear to be cost-effective in the treatment of children and young people with PTSD. Family therapy and supportive counselling are unlikely to be cost-effective relative to other interventions. There is a need for well-conducted studies that examine the long-term clinical and cost-effectiveness of a range of psychological treatments for children and young people with PTSD