Semi-Markov representations of some stochastic point processes

Imperial Users onl

Using Q method and agent based modelling to understand hurricane evacuation decisions

A significant minority of at risk residents in the USA do not evacuate from an approaching hurricane when they are advised to by local authorities. This causes unnecessary deaths, injuries and suffering; a situation which is likely to intensify under predicted climate change. This thesis argues that non-evacuation is not fully understood as both the academic and policy framing of the decision to evacuate is centred around technical and socio-economic approaches which assume that risk is objective and “rational” people will evacuate if they have the material means to do so. This thesis argues that rationalities are differentiated and decision making is also a process which is influenced by members of a social network. Therefore there is a need for a more constructivist approach to get a deeper understanding of the subjectivity of hurricane evacuation. In this thesis, the theory of reasoned action is used as the framework of decision making as it highlights the importance of subjective attitudes and subjective norms on behaviour. A mixed methods case study of Hurricane Ike is used to analyse the evacuation of Galveston Island, Texas. Firstly a “Q” study was undertaken with 40 residents of Galveston, which unveiled four distinct subjective evacuation attitudes, demonstrating that people understand hurricane risk in different ways which impact on their decision to evacuate. The results of the Q study were then used to parameterise an agent based model, designed to investigate community level evacuation. The model showed that it is possible to explain island-level evacuation through the combination of subjective evacuation attitudes and subjective norms which can interact to produce emergent, or unpredicted behaviour. This thesis represents a fundamental challenge to positivist approaches and clearly demonstrates the value of a more constructivist approach to understanding hurricane evacuation based on subjective evacuation attitudes and subjective norms

In what ways did the 2014-2015 Ebola Viral Disease outbreak in Sierra Leone affect women? : an examination of gender and human rights in a major disease outbreak

Ebola Viral Disease (EBV) is a filovirus with a high mortality rate that ravaged the West African region intensively in the 2014/2015 period, with some cases persisting into 2016. The rapid advance of the illness was characterised by the near collapse of the health system of Sierra Leone, as medical and nursing staff fled or succumbed to the disease. The statistics concerning mortality rates from the illness in West Africa reflect an epidemic in which more women than men have died. These statistics parallel the gendered mortality rates of many natural disasters, and it is clear that epidemics and disasters, when they occur, often reflect pre-existing gender inequalities. This is a fact recognised within the policy structures of many large international NGOs when planning humanitarian response. The reasons for these disproportionate figures are explored within this report using a human rights perspective. This report draws on academic and grey literature, and a small-scale survey of workers involved in caring for those suffering from Ebola, to explore how a person’s level of risk to an event like Ebola and their capacity to respond to or prepare for it, can be affected by a person’s gender, level of poverty, social class, age, ethnicity, and the pre-existing human rights landscape. Human rights are intended to be universal, but as this report will demonstrate, there are many factors limiting the implementation of basic human rights in relation to gender and humanitarian action. This study explores some of the reasons why more women than men died from Ebola in Sierra Leone and why, as many of the survey respondents reported, women suffered disproportionately during the outbreak. The reasons for this are outlined within the findings, but include cultural practices around mortality, gender roles within society, a lack of education leading to an inability to take up preventative health messages, and pre-existing bias against women at many levels of society

Pitch Perfect: Selling to Libraries and Selling Libraries to Nonusers

Sales is the art of persuasion. It is intentional activity to move another individual (or group of individuals) to a desired outcome—for example, “no” to “yes”; “maybe” to “yes; ”yes, someday”; to “yes, now.” And, not surprisingly, there are numerous strategies for selling—challenger, consultative, high-touch, solution selling, etc. Regardless of the particular sales method in use, it is important to recognize that sales activity is purposeful, goal driven, and remarkably effective. Paradoxically, the most effective sales interactions are those where the customer does not even recognize that they have been “sold.” The mark of a great sales person is the ability to leave customers thinking that it is they—the customers—who have realized their will. This program looks at three questions related to library sales: 1) What are the characteristics that library suppliers look for in their sales personnel? 2) How do library vendors train, manage and incentivize their sales teams? 3) Should librarians—especially subject liaisons in academic libraries—be recruited, trained and managed as if they were sales workers, charged with influencing faculty and student uptake of library materials and services? While libraries generally characterize themselves as “learning organizations” as opposed to “sales organizations,” the fact remains that when libraries talk about liaisons assigned to provide “outreach” or “engagement,” they might just as well be talking about sales. And, if they were to think about library work in the context of sales, administrators would undoubtedly hire differently, manage differently, and use different criteria to evaluate and incentivize library staff. They would also recognize the need for different strategies for management, including the recruitment of experienced sales managers to direct the goals and activity of their library sales force. This program, led by librarians and professional sales managers, is intended to address the need of libraries, as customers and service providers, to understand more about the theory, practice and management of sales, including the potential use of tools like Salesforce.com to monitor and evaluate librarian performance

Automation in irrigation distribution systems

Presented at SCADA and related technologies for irrigation district modernization: a USCID water management conference on October 26-29, 2005 in Vancouver, Washington.Includes bibliographical references.Total Channel Control™ is a patented automation design for large scale open canal irrigation networks that manages water distribution within capacity constraints to achieve on-demand water delivery whilst maximizing water distribution. Here it is shown that this decentralized and distributed control implementation realizes near globally optimal performance. Furthermore, the performance enhancement above optimally scheduled open loop or manual operations is exemplified

Research Experiences Instrument Scoring Guide

This document is a scoring guide to assist higher-education administrators, faculty, and researchers who wish to use the Research Experiences Instrument (REI). There are five aspects, or factors, that the REI is intended to measure relative to engineering Ph.D. students’ opportunities to practice being a professional in their research experiences, and an overall REI score. Detailed scoring instructions are provided. The REI was developed to assess how the research experiences of engineering Ph.D. students are preparing them for practice. Utilizing a rigorous instrument development process, the REI was shown to be a tool that can reliably and validly be used to assess engineering Ph.D. students\u27 professional practice preparation

Systematic Screening for Behavior in K–12 Settings as Regular School Practice: Practical Considerations and Recommendations

There is a priority for schools to address students’ social and emotional needs as we do academic learning. Tiered models of prevention provide a framework for teaching social skills and behavioral expectations, as well as academics, with positive, proactive, evidence-based practices. Central to responding to students’ needs is accurate measurement of their performance. Systematic screening for behavior addresses this need. Practical considerations and recommendations are offered for school leadership teams as they plan for using systematic behavior screening as a regular school practice. The paper was framed within tiered models of prevention, however, screening practices may be used outside of tiered models provided structures are in place for responding to student needs when detected. Content is offered to guide school leadership teams as they undertake systematic behavior screening efforts. Key words: systematic behavior screening, K-12, tiered prevention modelsOffice of Special Education Programs U.S. Department of Education (H326S980003)Institute of Education Sciences Partnership Grant (R305H150018

Understanding the Communicative and Social Processes of Engineering Ethics in Diverse Design Teams

Understanding the Communicative and Social Processes of Engineering Ethics in Diverse Design Teams As engineering, and specifically engineering design, is increasingly understood to be asocial activity, engineering education’s understanding of ethics needs to reflect this developingawareness. Within engineering and design teams, engineering educators are concerned not onlywith how individual students develop ethically, but also how everyday ethical decision-makingemerges during team interactions and becomes integrated in design solutions. The everydayethics approach calls on engineering educators and students to pay closer attention to the natureof design, how values are embedded in design through micro decision-making processes, andhow these values are reintegrated into the everyday life of end users. Furthermore, these ethicaldecisions often do not present themselves as traditional dilemmas, but are issues that areconfronted in the everyday process of design, and are influenced by the cultural and disciplinarybackgrounds of the members and the ethical climates of the team and the organization. In considering engineering ethics education in this context, we can draw from theextensive scholarship of group communication. This body of literature suggests that teammember interactions and communication have a major impact on a team’s decision-makingabilities, as well as the information that is discussed during the problem-solving process (Larson,2007; Postmes, Spears & Cihangir, 2001; Reimer, Reimer, & Czienskowski, 2010). Therefore,this project seeks to understand how everyday ethical decision-making is integrated in theprocesses and interactions of diverse engineering design team and their recognition of the long-term design consequences of the solutions they produce. To do so, this study combines social network analysis with structuration theory toexamine the structure of project teams while also examining the institutional and contextualfactors that contribute to team climate, and to the development of group norms that affect teaminteractions. Social network analysis (SNA) is a type of analysis that enables researchers toexamine the relationships among members of a given system or group. In contrast to the“organizational chart” that might show how communication is supposed to flow within theorganization, network analysis shows the actual communication and relationships that emergewithin the organization or team. Structuration accounts for the influence of institutional factorssuch as rules or norms of what is “acceptable” or “appropriate” behavior within a specific socialcontext, while also affording the actors within that context agency to enact influence on thosestructural influences. Primary data sources include a series of interviews and videotapedparticipatory observations, as well as the social network analysis survey. In the first few months of the project, we have purposefully selected four diverse projectteams within a service-learning design program at a Midwestern university. Researchers haveconducted observations of the team, and have piloted the social network analysis survey andinterview. The survey and interviews will be conducted for the four project teams within thenext three months. In the paper, we describe the study frameworks and methods, preliminaryresults from the pilot, and how the pilot informed the study design

A preliminary characterisation of innovative semi-flexible composite pavement comprising geopolymer grout and reclaimed asphalt planings

This article considers semi-flexible composite (SFC) pavement materials made with reclaimed asphalt planings (RAP) and geopolymer cement-based grouts. Geopolymer grouts were developed and used to fill the internal void structure of coarse RAP skeletons with varying levels of porosity. The geopolymer grouts were formulated at ambient temperature using industrial by-products to offer economic and environmental savings relative to conventional Portland cement-based grouting systems. They were characterised on flowability, setting time, and compressive strength. The effect of grout and RAP on SFC material performance was evaluated using permeable porosity, compressive strength, and ultrasonic pulse velocity. SFC performance was significantly influenced by both grout type and RAP content. Improved performance was associated with mixtures of high-flowability/high-strength grout and low RAP content. A practical limitation was identified for combination of grout with low-flowability/fast-setting time and well-compacted RAP skeletons. Solids content exceeding 49% by volume was not feasible, owing to inadequate grout penetration. A suite of SFC materials was produced offering performance levels for a range of practical pavement applications. Preliminary relationships enabling prediction of SFC elastic modulus based on strength and/or ultrasonic pulse velocity test data are given. A pavement design is given using SFC as a sub-base layer for an industrial hardstanding

Limiting Behaviour of the Mean Residual Life

In survival or reliability studies, the mean residual life or life expectancy is an important characteristic of the model. Here, we study the limiting behaviour of the mean residual life, and derive an asymptotic expansion which can be used to obtain a good approximation for large values of the time variable. The asymptotic expansion is valid for a quite general class of failure rate distributions--perhaps the largest class that can be expected given that the terms depend only on the failure rate and its derivatives.Comment: 19 page